Megathread: Braves lose Maitan, Bae and 10+ plus International Sanctions.

[clvclv]

Nick is who he is. We paid market value for him and that's essentially what we are getting. The whole argument, for the most part, was should the Braves be paying market value for players like that. As it turns out it doesn't matter since they aren't close to contending while he's been here. Like Dickey and Colon it simply doesn't matter with where the Braves are as a team. The problem was if the Braves really were contenders in 2017. A contract like Nick's would have hurt the team since they are a mid market team with a limited budget.

Hindsight on the Heyward contract is nonsense really. Anybody can be right in hindsight and nobody saw Heyward declining to this level on offense. It was always his defense that people thought would dramatically decline which gave them pause about a long contract. Anyone saying otherwise is lying. And to me, like always, it's about the process and not the results. Signing a 26 year old FA who is a stud defensively and a good hitter to a big contract isn't a bad process even if the results stink. Trading for a 31 year old OF who is among the worst defensively and average to above average offensively is not a good process. If the team makes good process decisions they will get back to winning even if some of them have bad results.

This simply isn't true. If you bother to dig, you'll find TONS of posts from members who argued that Heyward was simply too big a gamble because they didn't believe in his offense. Was he "capable" of putting up multiple 30/100 seasons while being the best defensive RF in the game? Sure he did it once (close enough, anyway when he was in his early 20s) and it was certainly reasonable to expect him to maintain or even improve on those numbers as he gained more experience. A funny thing happened though - he never came close to replicating the numbers (counting stats or no) that he put up in his rookie season OTHER than in his banner 2012 campaign. His numbers absolutely cratered (.277/.393/.456/.849 his first time through to .227/.319/.389/.708) before his breakout (and likely career) season. Swanson had a similar "mysterious" crater between seasons 1 and 2 (.302/.361/.442/.803 to .232/.312/.324/.636) as the league adjusted to him. Can we expect Dansby to adjust back and blow up in 2018? I don't, but I saw Heyward do it just like everybody else did.

The numbers aren't exact as far as the numbers-crowd is concerned, but they point to the same thing. The league starts to figure EVERYBODY out, and the successful players make the adjustments and continue on and adjust back. I can't tell you whether Dansby Swanson's capable of making the correct adjustments (or what they are with certainty), but I can tell you that Jason Heyward sure as *ell hasn't YET - he hasn't posted an OPS higher than .735 or an OPS+ higher than 109 ONCE since those banner years, and for as much as everyone (myself included) loved him and thought he'd take that next step, there were tons who screamed that valuing him higher higher than Freeman was nuts.

Were we wrong???

SJ24 compares Acuna to Trout - the minor league numbers line up, why is he such an idiot???

[thewupk]

This simply isn't true. If you bother to dig, you'll find TONS of posts from members who argued that Heyward was simply too big a gamble because they didn't believe in his offense. Was he "capable" of putting up multiple 30/100 seasons while being the best defensive RF in the game? Sure he did it once (close enough, anyway when he was in his early 20s) and it was certainly reasonable to expect him to maintain or even improve on those numbers as he gained more experience. A funny thing happened though - he never came close to replicating the numbers (counting stats or no) that he put up in his rookie season OTHER than in his banner 2012 campaign. His numbers absolutely cratered (.277/.393/.456/.849 his first time through to .227/.319/.389/.708) before his breakout (and likely career) season. Swanson had a similar "mysterious" crater between seasons 1 and 2 (.302/.361/.442/.803 to .232/.312/.324/.636) as the league adjusted to him. Can we expect Dansby to adjust back and blow up in 2018? I don't, but I saw Heyward do it just like everybody else did.

The numbers aren't exact as far as the numbers-crowd is concerned, but they point to the same thing. The league starts to figure EVERYBODY out, and the successful players make the adjustments and continue on and adjust back. I can't tell you whether Dansby Swanson's capable of making the correct adjustments (or what they are with certainty), but I can tell you that Jason Heyward sure as *ell hasn't YET - he hasn't posted an OPS higher than .735 or an OPS+ higher than 109 ONCE since those banner years, and for as much as everyone (myself included) loved him and thought he'd take that next step, there were tons who screamed that valuing him higher higher than Freeman was nuts.

Were we wrong???

SJ24 compares Acuna to Trout - the minor league numbers line up, why is he such an idiot???

What you are referring to is people didn't believe that he would be able to get back to the level of offense he showed his rookie year. There is a difference in that and believing he would crash offensively and become one of the worst hitters in baseball. The concern was that he would stagnate as an offensive hitter and decline on defense as he got closer to 30. Prove me wrong if you don't think that's an accurate depiction of most of the conversation regarding Heyward around 2014-2015.

[thewupk]

A rebuilding team that isn't competing doesn't need a guy like Markakis unless you believe in some kind of veteran presence value for players who aren't even in the ML yet - face it, the Braves didn't have any position players of note for the first two years of Markakis really unless you believe in Jace and Adonis, etc. He really had no upside. It was all hope for status quo or get downside. By and large they've gotten status quo, so in a way lucky. But it should have never come to it. His 2 wins didn't mean anything real in either year.

The $11M per year that they committed to him could have been used elsewhere, hopefully on flippable guys, most likely bullpen guys.

And, BTW, I always said Heyward was going to be massively overpaid and was roundly abused for that belief.

You have to field a major league team and the Braves had virtually nobody to play RF. If you have a budget then spend it because you aren't going to bank that money and use it later. That much should be obvious.

[thewupk]

The power struggle definitely isn’t over. JS has all his media guys like Shanks clamoring for Hart’s head. From what I gather, if JS wins Moore will
replace Hart. If Hart wins, another young guy will come in and GM under Hart. Shanks says “if Hart makes the pick Doug Harris has a chance.”

Shanks also mentions Hart has McGuirks ear.

Where is this JS vs Hart stuff coming from?

[Oklahomabrave]

Where is this JS vs Hart stuff coming from?

Predominantly Bowman and Shanks
who are JS guys,particularly Shanks who’s virtually his guard dog. They are leading the parade of
Hart needs to be held accountable and JS was uninvolved. If there wasn’t a schism I’d assume those guys would be protecting both.

Shanks is rapid fire tweeting about Hart being
Terrible JS being squeaky clean.

[thewupk]

Predominantly Bowman and Shanks
who are JS guys,particularly Shanks who’s virtually his guard dog. They are leading the parade of
Hart needs to be held accountable and JS was uninvolved. If there wasn’t a schism I’d assume those guys would be protecting both.

Ah. The plot thickens.

[clvclv]

What you are referring to is people didn't believe that he would be able to get back to the level of offense he showed his rookie year. There is a difference in that and believing he would crash offensively and become one of the worst hitters in baseball. The concern was that he would stagnate as an offensive hitter and decline on defense as he got closer to 30. Prove me wrong if you don't think that's an accurate depiction of most of the conversation regarding Heyward around 2014-2015.

There were plenty of people questioning Heyward's offensive prowess all along - just as many folks correctly questioned Francoeur's big breakout (and I'll be the first to admit I was excited enough to be one of those who was fooled).

Nitpick it all you want - there were almost as many posters screaming that extending Heyward - particularly to a bigger deal than Freeman got - was lunacy, and most felt Heyward was wrong (and selfish) for asking for more. As it turns out, they were right.

[clvclv]

What you are referring to is people didn't believe that he would be able to get back to the level of offense he showed his rookie year. There is a difference in that and believing he would crash offensively and become one of the worst hitters in baseball. The concern was that he would stagnate as an offensive hitter and decline on defense as he got closer to 30. Prove me wrong if you don't think that's an accurate depiction of most of the conversation regarding Heyward around 2014-2015.

That level is certainly deserving of a bigger contract than Freeman got, and arguably what Heyward ultimately got. The problem is, not only has Heyward not come close to replicating that season - Freeman barely has. At this point, anyone who argues Heyward's been much other than a "bust" is simply kinda nuts. Freddie might deserve that money, but Jason sure as *ell doesn't.

[sturg33]

The people who were against Heyward were against his offensive production from 2013 - 2015. Those people were and are still very wrong.

[thewupk]

There were plenty of people questioning Heyward's offensive prowess all along - just as many folks correctly questioned Francoeur's big breakout (and I'll be the first to admit I was excited enough to be one of those who was fooled).

Nitpick it all you want - there were almost as many posters screaming that extending Heyward - particularly to a bigger deal than Freeman got - was lunacy, and most felt Heyward was wrong (and selfish) for asking for more. As it turns out, they were right.

Please show me plenty of people that questioned Heyward being able to sustain a high 700's OPS. Just because you say it doesn't make it so. I don't mean to start this argument here but I hate revisionist history.

[CyYoung31]

Predominantly Bowman and Shanks
who are JS guys,particularly Shanks who’s virtually his guard dog. They are leading the parade of
Hart needs to be held accountable and JS was uninvolved. If there wasn’t a schism I’d assume those guys would be protecting both.

Shanks is rapid fire tweeting about Hart being
Terrible JS being squeaky clean.

They're both ****heads.

[clvclv]

The people who were against Heyward were against his offensive production from 2013 - 2015. Those people were and are still very wrong.

Seriously?

Heyward posted a 114 OPS+ in the BEST of those seasons. Among the players who posted CAREER Adjusted OPS+ between his 109 and 114 those two years are...

Darren Daulton
Aubrey Huff
Matt Joyce
Phil Nevin
Dustin Pedroia
Ryne Sandberg
Robin Ventura
Neil Walker (thus far)
Dimitri Young
Ben Zobrist
Felipe Alou
George Bell
Milton Bradley
Michael Brantley
Russell Branyan
Michael Cuddyer
Brad Hawpe
Von Hayes
Corey Koskie
Carlos Lee
Brian McCann (thus far)
Raul Mondesi
Pablo Sandoval (thus far)
Nick Swisher
Craig Biggio
Jeromy Burnitz
Ron Gant
Corey Hart
Glenallen Hill
Javy Lopez
Dave Magadan
Tino Martinez
Kendrys Morales
Manny Mota
Trot Nixon
Seth Smith
Brian Dozier (thus far)
Jermaine Dye
Nick Esasky
Julio Franco
Todd Frazier (thus far)
Andruw Jones
Adam LaRoche
Kevin Seitzer
Jay Bruce (thus far)
Brett Butler
Nick Markakis
Kevin Millar


and so on. Exactly how much more defense would anyone without the first name Andruw have to play to deserve a $184 million contract?

What about Mark Trumbo? He's in the group at 108.

[thewupk]

Seriously?

Heyward posted a 114 OPS+ in the BEST of those seasons. Among the players who posted CAREER Adjusted OPS+ between his 109 and 114 those two years are...

Heyward had a 117 OPS+ in 2015. Also ignored his 117 OPS+ in 2012.

And all of that ignores that OPS is a flawed stat compared to WOBA.

[Horsehide Harry]

You have to field a major league team and the Braves had virtually nobody to play RF. If you have a budget then spend it because you aren't going to bank that money and use it later. That much should be obvious.

Sure spend it but on things that actually help the rebuild. Trotting Markakis out there did nothing for the rebuild because the day he signed he could only be traded for salary relief, if that.

I am not saying that he didn't provide on field play good enough for what he was paid. By and large he did.

I'm saying his value to the franchise was as an expensive place holder with no upside. The money could and should have been used on other players, players likely with more boom/bust potential because you are looking for upside during a known period of lost seasons.

People act like Markakis was some household name that casual fans would respond to. He's been in Atlanta for three years and most casual fans likely had never heard of him before he got here.

[Southcack77]

Where is this JS vs Hart stuff coming from?

Conspiracies are more imteresting than real life.

[Southcack77]

There were plenty of people questioning Heyward's offensive prowess all along - just as many folks correctly questioned Francoeur's big breakout (and I'll be the first to admit I was excited enough to be one of those who was fooled).

Nitpick it all you want - there were almost as many posters screaming that extending Heyward - particularly to a bigger deal than Freeman got - was lunacy, and most felt Heyward was wrong (and selfish) for asking for more. As it turns out, they were right.

Too much bad guy/good guy stuff in all this for me.

Heyward isn't wrong or selfish imo for wanting to be paid what the market will pay him.

The braves are not ... whatever ... for deciding they weren't going to be that team.

there are not a lot of unambiguous successes for Atlanta lately but the heyward decision (and the fruits from it) is certainly one.

[cajunrevenge]

If Heywood wants every dime that's fine, then say that when asked. Don't say "I want to stay in Atlanta my whole career" when what you mean is "I hope Atlanta offers me the most money than everyone else". If he wanted to play for Atlanta he would be. He chose not to.

[Southcack77]

If Heywood wants every dime that's fine, then say that when asked. Don't say "I want to stay in Atlanta my whole career" when what you mean is "I hope Atlanta offers me the most money than everyone else". If he wanted to play for Atlanta he would be. He chose not to.

He probably did want to stay in Atlanta. moving sucks.

But it's worth 20 million.

[sturg33]

If Heywood wants every dime that's fine, then say that when asked. Don't say "I want to stay in Atlanta my whole career" when what you mean is "I hope Atlanta offers me the most money than everyone else". If he wanted to play for Atlanta he would be. He chose not to.

Atlanta traded him

[Super]

Hindsight on the Heyward contract is nonsense really. Anybody can be right in hindsight and nobody saw Heyward declining to this level on offense. It was always his defense that people thought would dramatically decline which gave them pause about a long contract. Anyone saying otherwise is lying. And to me, like always, it's about the process and not the results. Signing a 26 year old FA who is a stud defensively and a good hitter to a big contract isn't a bad process even if the results stink. Trading for a 31 year old OF who is among the worst defensively and average to above average offensively is not a good process. If the team makes good process decisions they will get back to winning even if some of them have bad results.

this simply isn't true. i heavily questioned how his offense would hold up but didn't really buy into his defense going downhill (at least not anytime soon). i thought he had a lot of holes in his game and his power was dropping every year. did i think he'd be quite this bad? well, no. but i absolutely thought he wouldn't be worth the investment he would take, especially for our payroll limitations. it was a move for a team like the cubs to make, not the braves. the FO made the right decision at the time, and it's the right decision today.

i still love watching him play defense. but at the plate, he's a mess, and he showed signs of that frequently throughout.