Megathread: Braves lose Maitan, Bae and 10+ plus International Sanctions.

[striker42]

It's hilarious that folks are willing to cook up all these machinations the FO did to save face on bad trades and "the business side of things", yet refuse to believe they did the same sort of thing firing Coppy.

They heaped praise on Coppy after slamming Wren. Now they can't go back and say they were wrong and Coppy sucked too.

It would look just as bad as simply paying HO to go away.

Comical that you guys defend the Kemp trade as a saving face trade rather than a poor scouting trade, and then can't figure out the Coppy firing was also done to save face haha.

It seems you're arguing that Coppy was some kind of fall guy. I don't think that's the case. If the reports out there of what the Braves were doing are true then Coppy was up to his neck in it and he deserved to be fired.

It's possible that Hart and others were involved and are trying to hang all the blame on Coppy but that doesn't mean Coppy was fired to save face. It just means that others are hoping that sacrificing one of the guilty is enough to appease MLB.

[Southcack77]

A lot of posters overthought the rationale for the Markakis signing. It was a matter of him having local connection and the expectation that he'd be trusted to provide veteran presence for the kids coming up to help turn them into pros.

Aside from that, of course you're right. Just recall what the response was to Martin Prado for replacing St. Kelly.

Also had something to do with them not having any OFs on the roster or in the minors.

[Horsehide Harry]

Anybody know if Coppy has a brother with a twitter account?

[clvclv]

clv, I think you're whistling past the graveyard about Kemp. He's a lump in LF who provides some pop when healthy, which is seldom. That was hardly a revelation. We'll see how much value he has when we try to deal him.

We are all just reading tea leaves at this point, but I think the likeliest outcome now is that Hart is pushed out and DM becomes the HMFIC. If that happens, and if the Coppy infractions turn out to be relatively minor, it's hard to see this as anything other than a JS coup. I think it's about a 50/50 proposition right now. We'll see.

There's no doubt about this, and I'm not trying to spin him as otherwise. The typical fan in me has been excited about having that RH thunder to "protect" Freddie when he's healthy - it was awesome for the last month last season and fun to watch. Really wouldn't have mattered WHO that player was, but I seriously doubt anyone will disagree that having that guy be a "name" sure doesn't hurt at the turnstiles while they're trying to recoup every dime of the money thrown away on Olivera. If he accounts for 5,000 tickets sold to those fans who don't realize this ain't the Kemp Dodgers fans watched during a season, it at least pays down some of what's owed to HO.

As 50 points out, it's more about making those decisions "for real" vs. making them based on what works optimally on your spreadsheet. That's honestly not meant to be a shot at the analytic crowd, really - I keep my own spreadsheet just like everybody else does. Sure it made all the sense in the world to just eat Olivera's money, cut him loose, and admit you made a mistake. No one questions that line of thinking. Of course doing so means you'd have Adonis Garcia, Lane Adams, Jace Peterson, or some other non-entity in LF for the last year and a half rather than Kemp. How many fans would pay to see one of them instead? The money was spent one way or the other - why not run Kemp out there and hope he stays healthy enough to be that "lump" you mention while hitting bombs and exciting fans every once in awhile when healthy to try and get some of that cash back? If doing so stood in the way of someone else's development, don't do it. The question remains - who has he gotten in the way of? Dustin Peterson??? I'll go a little further and say that if not for Acuna's meteoric development, the timing would have been pretty good - if he'd followed a typical timeline, you might not have even expected him to contribute at the MLB level until Kemp was gone anyway. In a perfect world, Peterson steps in when Markakis comes off the books, and Acuna follows him a year later when Kemp leaves - just didn't work out that way.

There's also no doubt (for me) that you're right about it being a toss-up at this point as well. As a "fan", an old guy who lived through the really dark years, and someone who loved the "Braves Way" when it worked during the glory days, I'm OK with the Old Guard hanging around and sharing their .02 - they've earned that right. I also agree that they need to understand that's what they are NOW - advisors and not decision-makers.

[BeanieAntics]

There's no doubt about this, and I'm not trying to spin him as otherwise. The typical fan in me has been excited about having that RH thunder to "protect" Freddie when he's healthy - it was awesome for the last month last season and fun to watch. Really wouldn't have mattered WHO that player was, but I seriously doubt anyone will disagree that having that guy be a "name" sure doesn't hurt at the turnstiles while they're trying to recoup every dime of the money thrown away on Olivera. If he accounts for 5,000 tickets sold to those fans who don't realize this ain't the Kemp Dodgers fans watched during a season, it at least pays down some of what's owed to HO.

As 50 points out, it's more about making those decisions "for real" vs. making them based on what works optimally on your spreadsheet. That's honestly not meant to be a shot at the analytic crowd, really - I keep my own spreadsheet just like everybody else does. Sure it made all the sense in the world to just eat Olivera's money, cut him loose, and admit you made a mistake. No one questions that line of thinking. Of course doing so means you'd have Adonis Garcia, Lane Adams, Jace Peterson, or some other non-entity in LF for the last year and a half rather than Kemp. How many fans would pay to see one of them instead? The money was spent one way or the other - why not run Kemp out there and hope he stays healthy enough to be that "lump" you mention while hitting bombs and exciting fans every once in awhile when healthy to try and get some of that cash back? If doing so stood in the way of someone else's development, don't do it. The question remains - who has he gotten in the way of? Dustin Peterson???

There's also no doubt (for me) that you're right about it being a toss-up at this point as well. As a "fan", an old guy who lived through the really dark years, and someone who loved the "Braves Way" when it worked during the glory days, I'm OK with the Old Guard hanging around and sharing their .02 - they've earned that right. I also agree that they need to understand that's what they are NOW - advisors and not decision-makers.

But that isn't what they are doing. They are taking over every aspect of the decision making process. They aren't advisors, they aren't just throwing in their 2 cents, they are going to be making unilateral decisions based on their outdated ideas about how a baseball organization should be run. And that is an enormous problem. That is why we should 100% get them out and bring in some new blood that is willing to adapt to new ideas about baseball.

[striker42]

But that isn't what they are doing. They are taking over every aspect of the decision making process. They aren't advisors, they aren't just throwing in their 2 cents, they are going to be making unilateral decisions based on their outdated ideas about how a baseball organization should be run. And that is an enormous problem. That is why we should 100% get them out and bring in some new blood that is willing to adapt to new ideas about baseball.

They're not going to make a bunch of unilateral decisions. They're going to hire a new GM who, in all likelihood, will be making the unilateral decisions. This is especially true if they hand the keys to Moore.

Also, they're not going to go out and dig up someone whose last experience in a front office was 1987. I can almost guarantee whoever they get will be a baseball guy who is currently working in a front office and is perfectly capable of putting together a team that uses modern methods of talent evaluation.

It's really going to be a question of whether we're a little more scouting focused or a little more stats focused. I can guarantee whoever we get will use both.

[striker42]

http://www.kansascity.com/sports/mlb...e41510340.html

For those that think Moore will be a scouting only GM and has no idea that advanced stats are useful.

[Knucksie]

If this is true, that's one of the smartest moves I've seen out of a Braves front office in quite a while.

Wasn't that done in "Jerry McGuire"?

[Chico]

There's so much going on in this thread I don't know where to begin, and don't want to read through 37 pages.

Can we just have a collection on whatever narrative posters are trying to pitch in once place? :)

[sturg33]

There's no doubt about this, and I'm not trying to spin him as otherwise. The typical fan in me has been excited about having that RH thunder to "protect" Freddie when he's healthy - it was awesome for the last month last season and fun to watch. Really wouldn't have mattered WHO that player was, but I seriously doubt anyone will disagree that having that guy be a "name" sure doesn't hurt at the turnstiles while they're trying to recoup every dime of the money thrown away on Olivera. If he accounts for 5,000 tickets sold to those fans who don't realize this ain't the Kemp Dodgers fans watched during a season, it at least pays down some of what's owed to HO.

As 50 points out, it's more about making those decisions "for real" vs. making them based on what works optimally on your spreadsheet. That's honestly not meant to be a shot at the analytic crowd, really - I keep my own spreadsheet just like everybody else does. Sure it made all the sense in the world to just eat Olivera's money, cut him loose, and admit you made a mistake. No one questions that line of thinking. Of course doing so means you'd have Adonis Garcia, Lane Adams, Jace Peterson, or some other non-entity in LF for the last year and a half rather than Kemp. How many fans would pay to see one of them instead? The money was spent one way or the other - why not run Kemp out there and hope he stays healthy enough to be that "lump" you mention while hitting bombs and exciting fans every once in awhile when healthy to try and get some of that cash back? If doing so stood in the way of someone else's development, don't do it. The question remains - who has he gotten in the way of? Dustin Peterson??? I'll go a little further and say that if not for Acuna's meteoric development, the timing would have been pretty good - if he'd followed a typical timeline, you might not have even expected him to contribute at the MLB level until Kemp was gone anyway. In a perfect world, Peterson steps in when Markakis comes off the books, and Acuna follows him a year later when Kemp leaves - just didn't work out that way.

There's also no doubt (for me) that you're right about it being a toss-up at this point as well. As a "fan", an old guy who lived through the really dark years, and someone who loved the "Braves Way" when it worked during the glory days, I'm OK with the Old Guard hanging around and sharing their .02 - they've earned that right. I also agree that they need to understand that's what they are NOW - advisors and not decision-makers.

The problem with all of this is the Braves took on a **** ton of money in addition to what they owed Olivera.

It was stupid from beginning to end. And now we're stuck

[WaitingFor2017]

http://www.kansascity.com/sports/mlb...e41510340.html

For those that think Moore will be a scouting only GM and has no idea that advanced stats are useful.

Thanks for the article. This does make me feel a little bit better about GMDM, but his horrible farm system in KC still gives me worries.


As from the article...

"The Royals did not believe in the value of analytics; they were less sabermetrically inclined than the average major-league club; and the heart of the Moore way — an old-school focus on scouting and player development — was incongruous with succeeding in modern baseball, where a statistical revolution had changed the way clubs operated."

Sounds like the old dinosaurs leading our FO. Hopefully Moore can bring his side in more than JS being more of an influence on Moore.

"Moore, of course, will never be confused with an executive born of the sabermetric movement. He was raised as a baseball man in Atlanta, in an organization that valued the core tenets of scouting and player development. But those around the organization say the Royals’ usage of analytics has evolved as the game has evolved."

More of this please.


Of course, you can have all of the advanced stats in the world, but it won't matter if you have an old dinosaur like Snitker managing the team through the gut or have JS valuing guys like Kemp who are clearly done being big contributors.

[striker42]

Thanks for the article. This does make me feel a little bit better about GMDM, but his horrible farm system in KC still gives me worries.


As from the article...

"The Royals did not believe in the value of analytics; they were less sabermetrically inclined than the average major-league club; and the heart of the Moore way — an old-school focus on scouting and player development — was incongruous with succeeding in modern baseball, where a statistical revolution had changed the way clubs operated."

Sounds like the old dinosaurs leading our FO. Hopefully Moore can bring his side in more than JS being more of an influence on Moore.

"Moore, of course, will never be confused with an executive born of the sabermetric movement. He was raised as a baseball man in Atlanta, in an organization that valued the core tenets of scouting and player development. But those around the organization say the Royals’ usage of analytics has evolved as the game has evolved."

More of this please.


Of course, you can have all of the advanced stats in the world, but it won't matter if you have an old dinosaur like Snitker managing the team through the gut or have JS valuing guys like Kemp who are clearly done being big contributors.

It's clear Moore wasn't one of the first to adopt Sabermetrics but market forces do what they do. Once other teams had that competitive advantage Moore was forced with the choice of adapting or getting left behind. He adapted and it seems like he did a credible job adapting.

However, no one is going to mistake him for Billy Beane. I have no doubt he still leans more heavily on traditional scouting. It's just the GM who only uses scouts and refuses to consider advanced stats is, like the dinosaur, extinct.

[Pachoo]

Mark Bowman just said that he doesn't think the Braves will lose any prospects because of the investigation. I get the feeling the penalty for this will amount to a fine and maybe a 1 year ban from the IFA signing period (hopefully next year when we were in penalty anyways). I hope we still have a chance at signing Robert Puason in 2019 (when we are no longer under penalty). Sounds like Puason is the Maitan of the 2019 signing period.

[dak]

http://www.kansascity.com/sports/mlb...e41510340.html

For those that think Moore will be a scouting only GM and has no idea that advanced stats are useful.

Thanks, that's an encouraging read. I don't think a Moore-led Braves FO would end up being thought-leaders when it comes to analytics, but I'm encouraged that he saw the need to close the gap with the rest of the league when he was with KC.

[bravesnumberone]

The bottom line is nothing will change for the better until we have a real owner who cares about actual success on the field.

[BeanieAntics]

http://www.kansascity.com/sports/mlb...e41510340.html

For those that think Moore will be a scouting only GM and has no idea that advanced stats are useful.

How about this one?

http://www.kansascity.com/sports/spt...e43733337.html

[clvclv]

It's clear Moore wasn't one of the first to adopt Sabermetrics but market forces do what they do. Once other teams had that competitive advantage Moore was forced with the choice of adapting or getting left behind. He adapted and it seems like he did a credible job adapting.

However, no one is going to mistake him for Billy Beane. I have no doubt he still leans more heavily on traditional scouting. It's just the GM who only uses scouts and refuses to consider advanced stats is, like the dinosaur, extinct.

Baby steps - "insiders" like DMGM and Yost are the only types you're going to find to loosen the grip. Whether self-inflicted or not, the organization's stab at more quickly acclimating to the new baseball world (Coppy and recent additions) was a disaster. The fact that DMGM made that adjustment (to whatever extent) successfully and still speaks their language gives hope that they'll begrudgingly listen when he explains - even if it takes time for them to finally understand.

I liken many of us here to Dayton - we were raised entirely on scouting, yet completely understand there's tons of value behind the numbers. It's not nearly as much an "us vs. them" thing as the other "side" thinks - I don't need (or plan) to buy every metric or be influenced solely by them, but lumping me in with someone who ignores them entirely is more than ridiculous. Just because someone doesn't believe in a certain metric doesn't mean they don't find value in others.

[BeanieAntics]

How can this narrative that GMs who disdain advanced metrics don't exist when Dave Stewart was recently the GM of the Diamondbacks. He came out numerous times talking about how he thought they were ruining the game and how the D'backs wouldn't pander to them. Its just simply not true that GMs like him don't exist. Dayton Moore may not have the outward disdain that Dave Stewart does, but he absolutely has shown himself to not be a big believer in them. At least relative to where the rest of the league is going philosophically. It is a big problem if we have an organization that is philosophically behind the times and hiring DM would just exacerbate the issue. I can't wait to read the AJC article in two years... "The Braves: The New Anti-Moneyball Team".... Should be awesome...

[striker42]

How about this one?

http://www.kansascity.com/sports/spt...e43733337.html

Nothing in that article says the Royals haven't used or valued advanced stats. In fact, that article is actually encouraging. The kind of undervalued players that Beane was able to find aren't undervalued anymore. If a player has a .400 OBP they're going to get paid.

That article has the Royals searching for undervalued players that fit a different mold. Trying to build a team on what the currently undervalued players can bring. And I have no doubt that they used advanced stats as part of that process.

I'm not trying to say Moore is a savior. I don't even know if he's the best choice. I'm just saying the impression that hiring him will mean we'll be stuck in the past and ignore advanced stats is incorrect.

[striker42]

How can this narrative that GMs who disdain advanced metrics don't exist when Dave Stewart was recently the GM of the Diamondbacks. He came out numerous times talking about how he thought they were ruining the game and how the D'backs wouldn't pander to them. Its just simply not true that GMs like him don't exist. Dayton Moore may not have the outward disdain that Dave Stewart does, but he absolutely has shown himself to not be a big believer in them. At least relative to where the rest of the league is going philosophically. It is a big problem if we have an organization that is philosophically behind the times and hiring DM would just exacerbate the issue. I can't wait to read the AJC article in two years... "The Braves: The New Anti-Moneyball Team".... Should be awesome...

If the anti-moneyball headline comes after two NL Championships and a World Series you wont hear me complaining.

But even under Dave Stewart the D-Backs, like every team, had an analytics department. It probably had a very small voice but it was there. And Stewart is probably the most extreme example you'll find. You'll also find he wasn't a very good GM.

But that doesn't mean the more analytics the better. If a team neglected scouting in favor of almost all analytics they would be terrible, especially in trying to get amateur talent.

Like most things the answer is in the middle using both. Use every tool you have.