Here's the thing with defensive statistics. Samples are deceiving. In 50 games or so you can make a few great plays, or not really be tested yet, but that will normalize out to a poitn over a season. Outfielders sometimes have loopy seasons and mainly it's because they don't see as many balls as middle infielders. So while oftentimes SS and 2B are pretty consistent OF, especially the corners, can see some variation year to year and that variation can come in the form of a handful of great plays where you happened to be positioned really well. And I do think we're ptobably seeing a slight rise in Kemp defensively because of how miserable the Braves were at positioning, but we're not talkign a big rise. Just a move from minus high teens to minus low teens.
Stockholm, more densely populated than NYC - sturg
And that's the thing. He showed the signs of someone who made contact very well, but also had a pretty good eye. As he pops out to the infield way more often than you'd like, whihc is why his BABIP will stay on the lower end. But he's not doing anything drastically out of line with his career norms. A little luck on BABIP, hitting the ball a bit harder than normal, and striking out at a career low while walking at a career high are all things likely to change, but the change will likely just bring his numbers close to last years numbers which with his defense is a near MVP level player.
Stockholm, more densely populated than NYC - sturg
agreed. all of this revisionist history is silly. showing a good eye and good contact skills doesn't mean you're going to produce at a 141 wRC+. especially when his previous high was 103. this is the 1% outcome we hear a lot around here, and no one could have possible expected it.
Those are things typically considered real changes made by the player.
https://www.fangraphs.com/library/pr...s/sample-size/
You are on it. Biggest difference is the BABIP which is way up over his past two seasons. His ISO is actually trailing what what it was last year.
He's improved incrementally to being a pretty average hitter, which is really good for someone with his defense. But its not what people are suggesting.
But maybe he has a freak year and his luck stays high and he'll be a 6 or 7 WAR player. That's certainly possible.
Kemp was just as unlikely to regress last year as he is this year. He is not a .350 hitter. He's not even a .300 hitter. He's skills have diminished and when his BABIP stabilizes, his numbers will plummet. He might still be a .800-850 OPS hitter when healthy, but he is nowhere near as good as he's currently hitting.
The curse of the Dodgers lives...
I haven’t looked lately, but early in the season the Dodgers were doing as I suggested by limiting Kemps defensive inning by liberal use of defensive substitutions.
You are 100% correct that he is going to regress, but with proper utilization Kemp can definitely be a contributor. Needless to say, the Braves were not properly utilizing him.
Another key issue with Kemp was his weight management. Last year he came into camp in great shape (relative to his standards), but as soon as he got hurt he let himself go and put on 40-50 pounds, according to a DOB report I saw back in ST. Kemp wasn’t even close to the same after that injury and I think conditioning played a huge part in that.
Phillies seem to be dropping off fast. The got 7 walks and 4 hits off of Chatwood today in 4 1/3 innings and could only score 1 run.