Around the League: 2017 offseason edition / 2018 Season

[50PoundHead]

If some team gets Cain for 3/50 or less they will have gotten the bargain of the offseason.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/some...-lorenzo-cain/

He'd be a close to perfect fit for us.

[Braves1976]

MLBTR: ''Lorenzo Cain and his reps at All Bases Covered Sports Management have begun informing some teams that they’re out of the running, per Heyman. It’s not immediately clear whether that means a decision is on the horizon, but Heyman adds that Cain is weighing “a variety of offers” and is even “believed to have received several” offers of four years in length.''

[thethe]

Cain in LF makes the braves a high 80 win team. Perfect fit and all it costs is money. We should not be outbided. We are on the cusp of a fun time for braves baseball.

[Russ2dollas]

Cain in LF makes the braves a high 80 win team. Perfect fit and all it costs is money. We should not be outbided. We are on the cusp of a fun time for braves baseball.

Also costs a pick.
And he’s a cf not a lf

I’d love him at the discounts posted. I think we could and should get outbid

[thethe]

Also costs a pick.
And he’s a cf not a lf

I’d love him at the discounts posted. I think we could and should get outbid

The pick is not valuable IMO. Isn't it at worSt a third rounder? I doubt cain is concerned about playing LF if he gets paid.

[Russ2dollas]

The pick is not valuable IMO. Isn't it at worSt a third rounder? I doubt cain is concerned about playing LF if he gets paid.

we lost our third rounder so it would be a fourth.

we have to restock our farm every year. We can't use the international market. Now we are down picks and more importantly pool money. So yes, it is a big deal. Yes it is and should be valuable to us.

I wouldn't make it a deal breaker but I'm not discounting it.

IF we sign Cain and a 3B we are likely looking at a two player draft. We draft the best guy we can for picks one and two and then it's college seniors for the rest.

[clvclv]

we lost our third rounder so it would be a fourth.

we have to restock our farm every year. We can't use the international market. Now we are down picks and more importantly pool money. So yes, it is a big deal. Yes it is and should be valuable to us.

I wouldn't make it a deal breaker but I'm not discounting it.

IF we sign Cain and a 3B we are likely looking at a two player draft. We draft the best guy we can for picks one and two and then it's college seniors for the rest.

I don't think anyone would argue that those picks have some value - but IF you were going to surrender them, has there ever been a better time?

With a huge chunk of your core controllable (and hopefully on the verge of becoming really productive), isn't this when you'd want to take a shot? Even if you couldn't get both Moustakas and Cain, will the opportunity to get a premium free-agent on a perceived team-friendly deal present itself again - particularly when you have the available payroll over the next two years? It's always fun to talk about, but the Braves simply aren't going to play on Harper or Machado next winter and paying Donaldson into his late-30s isn't really likely either (even though more than the first two).

Say you got Moose on a reasonable deal - maybe 3 years/$45 million that was somewhat backloaded with a vesting option for a 4th year this winter (or an opt-out following the 2nd or 3rd year). That buys AA this year to put his own eyes on all the arms while making the 2018 team much better AND gives you your best possible bridge to Riley assuming he's sold on him. He could then decide what pieces he's willing to move in a deal for an Archer or other frontline SP (assuming he decides Gohara or Wright isn't that guy) or in a deal for that 3rd OF and still have plenty of financial flexibility with Markakis/Kazmir/McCarthy disappearing.

Solving just one of 3B or LF probably makes this team a legitimate wildcard contender in 2018 with all the most important pieces still under control for years WITHOUT adding any significantly dangerous long-term commitment. It's not that that pick isn't valuable, but if that's all it costs, it'd be really tough for fans to stomach that AA passed up a shot at the playoffs in favor of a 4th Round pick that isn't ever likely to make a significant impact on the major league club.

[Hudson2]

I don’t see us really doing much with 3b this offseason unless it’s a 1 year type of player. They believe in Riley and I think they should give him one more year in the minors to prove he is or isn’t the answer. Lf is the place I’d focus my attention. If we don’t go after Yelich then I’d go for Cain and try trading for one of Archer or Fulmer. We’d have our ace and the rest of our team would be set outside of 3b, and if Riley isn’t the answer then we’d have the money to fix it next offseason.

[thewupk]

we lost our third rounder so it would be a fourth.

we have to restock our farm every year. We can't use the international market. Now we are down picks and more importantly pool money. So yes, it is a big deal. Yes it is and should be valuable to us.

I wouldn't make it a deal breaker but I'm not discounting it.

IF we sign Cain and a 3B we are likely looking at a two player draft. We draft the best guy we can for picks one and two and then it's college seniors for the rest.

Giving up a draft pick (in our case the 4th round pick) to sign a free agent is generally not a good idea for a team like the Braves unless that player is really good and/or pushes the team over the top. I like Cain but he doesn't fit either of those categories imo.

But giving up a 4th round pick while signing a player like Cain to a below market value? That gets interesting. If Cain signs a 3 year deal I would expect him to produce 9 WAR over that span and it todays market that is worth ~80 million. The market for FA outfelders has crashed and there is talk of Cain signing for 3/45-50. If that's the case you are getting him at 30 million under what you would expect to have to pay. A 4th round pick is not worth 30 million in value so I would easily give that up to sign Cain.

To put it in other words. If the Braves were targeting a player via trade like Cain who had 30 million in surplus value they would have to give up a 55 FV prospect. There are no 55 FV prospects in the draft straight out of the 4th round.

If Cains price is higher or a 4th year is required then that changes things.

[thethe]

The likelihood of a 4th rounder to even produce a fraction of what Cain would is minimal at best. Even with the reduced cap pool I'd stI'll do it. I think people are under rating our pitching. With Cain I see a decent chance at making the playoffs in 2018.

[Enscheff]

MLBTR: ''Lorenzo Cain and his reps at All Bases Covered Sports Management have begun informing some teams that they’re out of the running, per Heyman. It’s not immediately clear whether that means a decision is on the horizon, but Heyman adds that Cain is weighing “a variety of offers” and is even “believed to have received several” offers of four years in length.''

If he has 4 year offers from several teams that probably dashes any hopes of the Braves scooping him up at a bargain rate.

[Southcack77]

I’d argue that this would be a particularly bad time to be losing draft picks given the players lost and the restrictions coming.

[thewupk]

I’d argue that this would be a particularly bad time to be losing draft picks given the players lost and the restrictions coming.

So would giving up known value in current prospects via trade be even worse?

[Southcack77]

The likelihood of a 4th rounder to even produce a fraction of what Cain would is minimal at best. Even with the reduced cap pool I'd stI'll do it. I think people are under rating our pitching. With Cain I see a decent chance at making the playoffs in 2018.

I’m not saying you don’t do it, but it’s more than one fourth round pick. It’s the lack of flexibility you have to sign players for that entire draft class. It makes it considerably less likely that the draft as a whole pans out.

Also there is never an occasion where a fa with a draft pick penalty isn’t a good bet to be better than the pick, but teams guard the picks nonetheless.

[Russ2dollas]

Giving up a draft pick (in our case the 4th round pick) to sign a free agent is generally not a good idea for a team like the Braves unless that player is really good and/or pushes the team over the top. I like Cain but he doesn't fit either of those categories imo.

But giving up a 4th round pick while signing a player like Cain to a below market value? That gets interesting. If Cain signs a 3 year deal I would expect him to produce 9 WAR over that span and it todays market that is worth ~80 million. The market for FA outfelders has crashed and there is talk of Cain signing for 3/45-50. If that's the case you are getting him at 30 million under what you would expect to have to pay. A 4th round pick is not worth 30 million in value so I would easily give that up to sign Cain.

To put it in other words. If the Braves were targeting a player via trade like Cain who had 30 million in surplus value they would have to give up a 55 FV prospect. There are no 55 FV prospects in the draft straight out of the 4th round.

If Cains price is higher or a 4th year is required then that changes things.

agree. I think we are saying the same thing.

The draft pick is not a deal breaker but it's important and must be considered.

I'd give up the pick to get Moose if I'm not confident in internal options (I am not) and he's at a bargain rate. A deal is a deal. But you have to look at the entire picture.

I'd love to have cain. But if it's 4/80+ plus losing a draft pick then I'm ok if we get beat.

[Enscheff]

I’d argue that this would be a particularly bad time to be losing draft picks given the players lost and the restrictions coming.

Longenhagen claims this draft is particularly strong in prep pitchers through the 5th round, meaning there should be Wentz-level (3rd round) talents available all the way through the 5th round.

I'm not sure if that means the Braves should try even harder to hold onto those picks or not (they aren't exactly hurting for Wentz-like prospects), but it is something to consider. If we safely assume they will get a pitcher with pick 8 or 47, maybe losing the chance at a Wentz-level prospect in rounds 4 and/or 5 is a hit the Braves can afford to take.

Of course if Cain really has multiple 4 year offers then he is no longer enough of a bargain to make sense for the Braves. Mous on a 3-4 year deal might still be a good bargain though.

[clvclv]

I’m not saying you don’t do it, but it’s more than one fourth round pick. It’s the lack of flexibility you have to sign players for that entire draft class. It makes it considerably less likely that the draft as a whole Pam’s out.

Also there is never an occasion where a fa with a draft pick penalty isn’t a good bet to be better than the pick, but teams guard the picks nonetheless.

But how much flexibility are you actually losing? You've already lost your #3. There are rarely kids available in the 4th Round that you're likely willing to go over-slot to get. Losing your #4 simply increases the chances you go as big as possible with your 1st Rounder, see what's available in the 2nd Round, and sign college Seniors in Rounds 5-10. That's more or less exactly what they did last year - Wright, Waters, a wildcard in Tarnok, and then cheap signs the rest of the way. In this scenario, you gain 3-4 years of Moustakas and it costs you Tarnok.

Given the early draft lists, you take the arm you have highest on your board (Mize, Rolison, Kowar, Rocker) at #8, and the athlete/hitter with the highest ceiling on your board (Connor Scott, Noah Naylor, Alek Thomas, Cadyn Greiner, Jeremiah Jackson) at ~ #50 and then see if you can get lucky with a couple Senior signs late.

[Southcack77]

But how much flexibility are you actually losing? You've already lost your #3. There are rarely kids available in the 4th Round that you're likely willing to go over-slot to get. Losing your #4 simply increases the chances you go as big as possible with your 1st Rounder, see what's available in the 2nd Round, and sign college Seniors in Rounds 5-10. That's more or less exactly what they did last year - Wright, Waters, a wildcard in Tarnok, and then cheap signs the rest of the way. In this scenario, you gain 3-4 years of Moustakas and it costs you Tarnok.

Given the early draft lists, you take the arm you have highest on your board (Mize, Rolison, Kowar, Rocker) at #8, and the athlete/hitter with the highest ceiling on your board (Connor Scott, Noah Naylor, Alek Thomas, Cadyn Greiner, Jeremiah Jackson) at ~ #50 and then see if you can get lucky with a couple Senior signs late.

You forfeit 3rd and 4th round picks you are losing 1.2 million from the bonus pool. You can certainly argue that might not be a big deal, but that's the kind of money that has been used to acquire a lot of the top prospects in the system. That's basically Wright's overage.

You certainly could play it straight and for volume, but that hasn't been the hot strategy amongst the cool kids. The current thinking is its better to have a smaller number of high profile prospects.

It wouldn't be any kind of death knell, but when you've gutted a year of your minor league system and know you won't be signing international prospects for three years, decreasing the odds of your draft working out is somewhat risky.

At some point down the road, you are probably going to hit a rough patch.

I just think you have to think real carefully about what you are doing. Do you really want to do that to be ok in 2018? Do you want to be paying Lorenzo Cain 20 million to play left field at a potential 2 WAR clip in 2020 or would you rather be spending that money elsewhere? Can you even know at this point?

I favor punting, I think. If you are going to do some of this other stuff you had probably better go big.

[clvclv]

You forfeit 3rd and 4th round picks you are losing 1.2 million from the bonus pool. You can certainly argue that might not be a big deal, but that's the kind of money that has been used to acquire a lot of the top prospects in the system. That's basically Wright's overage.

You certainly could play it straight and for volume, but that hasn't been the hot strategy amongst the cool kids. The current thinking is its better to have a smaller number of high profile prospects.

It wouldn't be any kind of death knell, but when you've gutted a year of your minor league system and know you won't be signing international prospects for three years, decreasing the odds of your draft working out is somewhat risky.

At some point down the road, you are probably going to hit a rough patch.

I just think you have to think real carefully about what you are doing. Do you really want to do that to be ok in 2018? Do you want to be paying Lorenzo Cain 20 million to play left field at a potential 2 WAR clip in 2020 or would you rather be spending that money elsewhere? Can you even know at this point?

I favor punting, I think. If you are going to do some of this other stuff you had probably better go big.

Now that you've already lost your #3, I just don't see it as enough of a loss - IF you can gain Moose for favorable terms. It gives you the flexibility of becoming more sure of what you have in Riley (and the potential of moving him to LF as Markakis' replacement in 2019 if he has another big year and forces your hand). At that point you can spend big on an arm if needed.

Braves' "successful" (reached the bigs or current Top 20 prospects) 4th Round picks:

Bryse Wilson (2016)
J. R. Graham (2011)
Cory Gearrin (2007)
Kyle Davies (2001)
David Justice (1985)
Ron Gant (1983)
Rick Behenna (1978)
Rowland Office (1970)

Of that group, someone will point out Justice and Gant - but there's almost no chance you get someone with that type of upside these days with the advances in scouting and technology. I wouldn't hesitate to give up any of those others for 3-4 years of Freeman/Acuna/Moustakas heart of the order, but that's just me.

As for Cain, I'm certainly not in favor of signing him over Moustakas (if at all).

[Braves1976]

@Ken_Rosenthal
2m2 minutes ago
More
#Brewers in agreement with free-agent outfielder Lorenzo Cain, sources tell The Athletic. Deal is pending a physical.

That was fast!