Hart on Payroll/Off-Season Plans

[nsacpi]

From the AJC:

There may not be a lot of breathing room, according to president of baseball operations John Hart, which will make matters more challenging.

“I think we’ve got a good feel for where we are with our club and what we’re doing,” he said. “There’s not a great level of flexibility, but there’s enough, as far as the personnel. We’ve seen a lot of the young guys that we wanted to get up here this year, we were able to actually do it. We’ve been force-feeding a lot of the other kids that are getting closer that you might see again next year. That’s a good thing. But we kind of know where we’re at here. I don’t think whether we get a new general manager or not, he’s not going to know us as well as we know ourselves.

“Not necessarily payroll,” Hart clarified. “Listen, there’s some things we can do. There’s going to be a lot of opportunities that are going to present itself.”

[nsacpi]

The rest of the article doesn't have direct quotes, so hard to say how informed the speculation is but key points:

1) Pen is looking promising, but an addition is likely. Kintzler and McGee are mentioned.

2) Team would prefer to move Kemp, but has limited appetite for eating salary. Muk easier to move, but more productive. A platoon between the two is a possibility. Concerned about impact of a Kemp/Muk platoon on playing time for Lane Adams. I wonder if anyone in the front office is aware of Lane's BABIP and strikeout rate numbers, and what that implies going forward.

3) Team is unlikely to make a heavy investment at third. Platoon of Camargo/Ruiz is the default. I think there is a big space between "heavy investment" and the default setting. That's my opinion. But I think someone like Nunez could happen and would make a fair amount of sense. We can probably get him on a 2-3 year deal at an AAV of 8M or less.

4) Rotation. FO is more pessimistic about acquiring an ace. Sounds like Gohara, Newcomb, Teheran and Folty have four of the spots. They are waiting on Dickey to make his decision. I wonder if they are being cheap here and wanting Dickey to retire before they have to make a decision on the option. That way they avoid the payout. Braves Way!

5) There is also a vague discussion of a "power shortage" and whether that implies the team will keep Matt Adams. My opinion is Adams' fate is somewhat tied to whether they can move one of Kemp/Markakis. He is more likely to be kept if they can do that.

[Tapate50]

ugh. yeah, john those long term contracts are bad news for aging vets. im shocked they would be a limiting factor on payroll. SHOCKED

[Chico]

All of that makes sense at this stage, but it's all BS as well. At this stage you want every other GM and agent to think we're happy where we are and we're not interested in making moves out of necessity. We're not going to spend money and we're not going to trade prospects. That might be the actual case or it might not but it's the only thing you actually admit to right now.

I highly doubt a Kemp/Markakis platoon is even a remote option. Lane Adams is not impacting any decision we make. Of course, we're going to say we'd rather just keep Matt Adams.

The only surprising thing to hear is that Gohara is being penciled in already. I'm skeptical on that as well.

[The Chosen One]

Thankfully once The Battery fills all its vacancies it will boost us from mid-market payroll to Top 3 again. The Braves Way of the 90's is comin back baby!!

[nsacpi]

At this stage you want every other GM and agent to think we're happy where we are and we're not interested in making moves out of necessity.

I agree with this. In the past we've done poorly in situations where we have telegraphed an anxiety to get something done. The Simmons trade is an example. The BJ Upton signing another.

Also I prefer we do some bottom fishing late in the off-season free agent market than get out early and sign people (like we did last off-season with Colon and Dickey). I think we can get a bargain or two that can help us in the pen and at third if we are patient.

And actually a credible case can be made that our "default setting" is an ok place to be. So its not like we have to bluff when we say there is no urgency to make a splash. We should avoid our recent tendency where the desire to make a PR splash has driven our off-season activity.

My advice to the front-office: don't be afraid to be boring and low key this off-season. In the long run, winning is the thing that puts fannies in the seats. Of course, we are all dead in the long run, but try to ignore that inconvenient fact.

[nsacpi]

Thankfully once The Battery fills all its vacancies it will boost us from mid-market payroll to Top 3 again. The Braves Way of the 90's is comin back baby!!

Look we are about to become the girl that is the most fun to dance with. As our leader, we need your posts to be in sync with that.

[bravesnumberone]

"Listen," the No. 1 priority here should be getting John Hart out of the organization.

[Preacher]

.

"But we kind of know where we’re at here. I don’t think whether we get a new general manager or not, he’s not going to know us as well as we know ourselves."
-Hart

I consider this a reason to get rid of him. Hart is so full of ****; he can't simultaneously claim to 'know ourselves' really well and also not have knowledge of Coppy going rouge.

He needs to go.

[Knucksie]

Don't see anything wrong with them wanting to avoid paying a buyout in the event that Dickey decides to retire. He given public indications that it's possible that he might.

[Hudson2]

No way they go into the 2nd season in the new stadium and suck again.

[BeanieAntics]

No way they go into the 2nd season in the new stadium and suck again.

If they don't have enough payroll flexibility, they may not have a choice

[The Chosen One]

No way they go into the 2nd season in the new stadium and suck again.

Johns: Hold our golf clubs.

[bravesnumberone]

No way they go into the 2nd season in the new stadium and suck again.

I'd say that's exactly what's going to happen unless we have another 1991 where it all comes together with our young guys simultaneously. And they might suck in 2019, too.

[nsacpi]

Don't see anything wrong with them wanting to avoid paying a buyout in the event that Dickey decides to retire. He given public indications that it's possible that he might.

fair point...the club has been circumspect about whether they want him back

[clvclv]

No way they go into the 2nd season in the new stadium and suck again.

Here's the thing about that - they're not likely to suck again. At least not as badly, for several reasons.

1.) We've likely seen the worst of Swanson we're going to see. That's not to say this is going to be his breakout season, but I find it really hard to believe that he's going to deliver a .276 wOBA again. He's just a better hitter than that - even if he's not a world-beater.

2.) The rotation is going to be better. That's not to say it's going to be good enough to get them to the playoffs, but this crop - without even getting to Allard/Soroka/Wright - is simply better than and more capable of making adjustments than Folty (thus far), Wisler, and Blair. I understand it's one of those intangibles that our numbers-minded friends hate, but you can just see the wheels turning when Gohara, Newcomb, Fried, and Sims get knocked around a bit. They don't throw their hands up like Folty does, they don't give you that completely flustered "what the *ell should I throw now???" look like we've all seen from Wisler. They're actually learning - struggling like all youngsters do, but learning. While none of them may ever ultimately reach their ceilings, they're going to be better than what we've had, and with only moderate bouncebacks from Julio and Folty, the starting pitching will be better.

3.) The pen will be better by default - even if they add no one. Minter's here for good. Winkler looks healthy. Lindgren and Rivero could be huge in-house additions. One of Sims and Fried might ultimately be too. For all the lack of forward thinking moves, they at least realize that there's NO WAY you can compete without a competent pen today. Even without spending money on a big-name Closer, playing at the Kintzler/McGee level is far better than going to battle with the Jason Mottes and Jim Johnsons of the world.


Just trying to read between the lines (like we all do)...

1.) I think they're sold on Riley. We all have to let it play out, and they may very well be wrong, but that's what I take from the "we don't have any money" stance. That doesn't mean that they have tons, but it's impossible for them to be broke with Colon and Garcia's money coming off the books. I won't disagree that this may not be the time to run out there and spend that money to try to get into the wildcard discussion, but there are going to be upgrades over Camargo/Ruiz available on shorter-term deals if they're really feeling the pressure to start winning. Just as nsacpi mentions, you could likely pay for Nunez at the very least by simply declining Dickey's option if he hasn't decided to hang it up.

2.) The talk of a Markakis/Kemp platoon is for real - but not because they're trying to snow anybody. I'm more convinced than ever that the decision has already been made and that barring injury Acuna's going to be in the Opening Day lineup. There's your "splash" to get the general fans excited. Beyond that, what happens with Kemp/Markakis/Adams is absolutely fluid. You just go into the offseason with all three available and take the best offer you get for one (or maybe even two if you get lucky) - if that turns out to be a "decent" (40-45 FV) prospect for Adams, you wind up with the old guys platooning. Whether they have money or not, it's pretty obvious they're going to have to be beaten with a stick to swallow money on either of those guys.

3.) Not sure why anyone would question Hart - or anyone else for that matter - for simply waiting in the hopes that Dickey makes the call himself and saves you the buyout money. That's simply smart business. Expressing sour grapes over that decision just shows your personal disdain for whatever decisions they make rather than looking at them objectively. 29 other teams would be waiting for Dickey to call it quits on his own and save them that money too.

[GeorgiaGirl]

I don't feel good about Swanson at all. I think his max normal seasons are a .650-.700 OPS if he doesn't get help with his issues, and with the turmoil and other stuff going on I don't think he will during this crucial time.

I'm not saying that is what his max out is, but age 22-25 is crucial with development.

[Chico]

If Dickey is gone either way and we trade Markakis and Adams which I think we will, while being stuck withJohnson and Kemp we should be around 82-84. I think we'll have some money to spend if we want to.

[bravesfanMatt]

I predict we will read in this thread, "I have said it all along", "pozzie", "head in sand", "dinosaur"

[Horsehide Harry]

I predict we will read in this thread, "I have said it all along", "pozzie", "head in sand", "dinosaur"

And irrelevant. As in, I am now saying that this is completely irrelevant right now and serves only as deflection from the dumpster fire behind the pet boarding location that is currently the Atlanta Braves.