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Thread: Braves in the AZL

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    Quote Originally Posted by 50PoundHead View Post
    Why rush these guys? I put little stock in the Arizona Fall League stats. I worry more about guys getting injured. Riley has plenty to work on. I'd start him at Mississippi. AAA has become somewhat of an elephants' graveyard with a ton of older guys who still project as 24th or 25th guys on a roster and are hanging on for their dear baseball life. It makes little difference (at least to me) for development purposes to put young guys in AAA as some sort of proving ground. It's more about total minor league ABs with at least a year at AA or above in my eyes.
    I have no problem with pushing the right young arms (Allard, Soroka, Wright) a little aggressively and having them spend time at the AAA level for that exact reason - these guys are going to be a LOT more selective than the hitters you'll see at the lower levels. I like having them make at least a handful of starts at Gwinnett so they're not completely shocked when people start spitting on their breaking balls when they're not even close to strikes. I do think it's better for hitters to spend more time at each level because it takes so much longer to have them develop pitch recognition and a solid approach. As mentioned elsewhere, Dansby was likely promoted for other reasons, and it created an obvious speed bump for him - but I think he's proving he's capable of making the needed adjustments (even though he's "on the clock" while doing so). We're likely to see Albies have an easier time because he spent more time against more advanced pitching in Mississippi and Gwinnett, but we're also likely to see Acuna be the type of exception to the rule that Andruw was - he simply advances to the next level and steps up as the quality of competition around him improves. This is the reason that you simply have to let some things be decided by your eyes.

    Riley and Jackson are certainly worth getting excited about, but neither need to be pushed at all (IMO), and there's no reason either should start 2018 any higher than Mississippi - and if the plan is to keep Jackson behind the plate defensively, one could argue he probably should spend ALL of 2018 at AA no matter how well he performs. If his bat continues improving and you want to push him, that's fine, but he doesn't need to be behind the plate if you do - EVERY Catcher needs to spend much more time developing his thought process, game-calling, and defensive skills than anyone else.
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    Some 2017 numbers on Austin Riley that curb my enthusiasm:

    Strikeout rate in High A: 21.8%
    Strikeout rate in AA: 24.6%

    BABIP in High A: .289
    BABIP in AA: .393

    He was a bit unlucky in High A BABIP-wise and very lucky in AA. It is unlikely that he suddenly "improved" mid-season at about the time of his promotion. More likely, he went from a cold streak to a hot streak.

    Having said that he is a good prospect. Someone to keep an eye on.
    Last edited by nsacpi; 10-19-2017 at 10:27 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by clvclv View Post
    I have no problem with pushing the right young arms (Allard, Soroka, Wright) a little aggressively and having them spend time at the AAA level for that exact reason - these guys are going to be a LOT more selective than the hitters you'll see at the lower levels. I like having them make at least a handful of starts at Gwinnett so they're not completely shocked when people start spitting on their breaking balls when they're not even close to strikes. I do think it's better for hitters to spend more time at each level because it takes so much longer to have them develop pitch recognition and a solid approach. As mentioned elsewhere, Dansby was likely promoted for other reasons, and it created an obvious speed bump for him - but I think he's proving he's capable of making the needed adjustments (even though he's "on the clock" while doing so). We're likely to see Albies have an easier time because he spent more time against more advanced pitching in Mississippi and Gwinnett, but we're also likely to see Acuna be the type of exception to the rule that Andruw was - he simply advances to the next level and steps up as the quality of competition around him improves. This is the reason that you simply have to let some things be decided by your eyes.

    Riley and Jackson are certainly worth getting excited about, but neither need to be pushed at all (IMO), and there's no reason either should start 2018 any higher than Mississippi - and if the plan is to keep Jackson behind the plate defensively, one could argue he probably should spend ALL of 2018 at AA no matter how well he performs. If his bat continues improving and you want to push him, that's fine, but he doesn't need to be behind the plate if you do - EVERY Catcher needs to spend much more time developing his thought process, game-calling, and defensive skills than anyone else.
    I agree that it's different for pitchers as there is a challenge to getting more experienced hitters out. Quality strikes in AA may not be quality strikes in AAA because of the experience factors of the hitters. But for hitters, I would be curious to know the average velocity of pitches in AAA when compared to AA. I wouldn't be surprised if hitters saw more velocity in AA. Probably less control, but maybe more velocity. Anyone from the more stat-inclined corridor of the board know how the get the comparative numbers?

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    Quote Originally Posted by 50PoundHead View Post
    I agree that it's different for pitchers as there is a challenge to getting more experienced hitters out. Quality strikes in AA may not be quality strikes in AAA because of the experience factors of the hitters. But for hitters, I would be curious to know the average velocity of pitches in AAA when compared to AA. I wouldn't be surprised if hitters saw more velocity in AA. Probably less control, but maybe more velocity. Anyone from the more stat-inclined corridor of the board know how the get the comparative numbers?
    AAA is definitely more of a holding tank than a developmental step.

    Having said that, I think there a can be a lot learned by hitters and pitchers in AAA. That mix of fringe MLB guys and recently promoted AA guys provides a great mix of skill sets for players to grow against.

    Did Albies benefit from his time in AAA refining his LHed swing against pitchers who could exploit his holes? I think the answer is undoubtedly yes.

    Would Swanson have seen good enough sliders in AAA to expose his weakness? Probably not considering they wouldn't game plan around him.

    Can Gohara work on his change in AAA while guys like Sims, Fried and Newk get 10+ starts in 2018 to prove whether or not they belong? Absolutely.

    Did Newk improve his command at AAA? Definitely not.

    Development at AAA is a mixed bag, but young players probably benefit more than older players from a few months at that level.

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    Alex Jackson homered again.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CJ9 View Post
    Alex Jackson homered again.
    Top 25!

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    Touki with a meh performance.

    1ip with 2 solo shots. Dropping him out of the top 50 surely.
    Coppy

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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesfanMatt View Post
    Touki with a meh performance.

    1ip with 2 solo shots. Dropping him out of the top 50 surely.
    Probably #51-52.

    Thethe still thinks he can be a TOR pitcher though.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    AAA is definitely more of a holding tank than a developmental step.

    Having said that, I think there a can be a lot learned by hitters and pitchers in AAA. That mix of fringe MLB guys and recently promoted AA guys provides a great mix of skill sets for players to grow against.

    Did Albies benefit from his time in AAA refining his LHed swing against pitchers who could exploit his holes? I think the answer is undoubtedly yes.

    Would Swanson have seen good enough sliders in AAA to expose his weakness? Probably not considering they wouldn't game plan around him.

    Can Gohara work on his change in AAA while guys like Sims, Fried and Newk get 10+ starts in 2018 to prove whether or not they belong? Absolutely.

    Did Newk improve his command at AAA? Definitely not.

    Development at AAA is a mixed bag, but young players probably benefit more than older players from a few months at that level.
    I think that depends. If you put Swanson hitting 3 or 4 in the lineup at AAA with some good OBP guys in front of him, he may have faced more sliders overall with some actually being good MLB sliders.

    After all, the purpose of minor league ball is development of players not W/L. However, too often, I think you end up with cave man thinking from minor league managers who want to win and manage like it was game 7.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Horsehide Harry View Post
    I think that depends. If you put Swanson hitting 3 or 4 in the lineup at AAA with some good OBP guys in front of him, he may have faced more sliders overall with some actually being good MLB sliders.

    After all, the purpose of minor league ball is development of players not W/L. However, too often, I think you end up with cave man thinking from minor league managers who want to win and manage like it was game 7.
    Not if someone didn't tell you so...come on, now!!!
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    It's probably not a good sign when BP puts a "?" next to the "C" for a player's game summary...

    "Alex Jackson, C?, Peoria Javelinas (Atlanta Braves): 1-4, R, HR, RBI, 3 K
    It has been a long season for Jackson. After being acquired from Seattle, Jackson has spent the bulk of the season behind the plate. He needs as many reps as he can get, but he has been tiring, with reports being underwhelming."
    Last edited by Enscheff; 10-23-2017 at 11:38 AM.

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    Another overhyped piece of garbage that'll never amount to anything in the leafue

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    Longenhagen chat started off with a Braves bang:

    Greg
    12:02 Do you think Alex Jackson will atleast be a MLB back up type, 4th OFer/3rd catcher type, power off bench?

    Eric A Longenhagen
    12:04 I think there's enough going on that he has some kind of big league role, yes. And I don't rule him out as a regular just yet. I've probably said this before, but evaluating catcher defense in the AFL is really tough. Guys are ground down from a long season and also suddenly catching an entirely new staff. I've had many scouts warn me of mistakes they've made by weighing AFL looks at catchers too heavily.
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    Dan
    12:04 In curious if you could provide some semi historical context for the relative wave of “meh” reviews we are getting on Maitan. In terms of other top international amateurs, I have to imagine many struggle as 17 year olds, and many have body concerns. Does this feel more noteworthy just because of the “generational talent” hype? Is this a relatively normal level of struggle?

    Eric A Longenhagen
    12:08 Sure. Yes, 17-year olds who come here and are asked to rapidly assimilate to our culture (which includes access to a lot of food that isn't good for you which, at age 17, I l consumed frequently) often struggle to do so. And that combined with the difficulty of being a pro baseball player often leads to some unflattering growing pains. So, while I'd rather have scouts telling me he looks amazing, this isn't something to lose sleep over just yet. At least I don't think so.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    Longenhagen chat started off with a Braves bang:

    Greg
    12:02 Do you think Alex Jackson will atleast be a MLB back up type, 4th OFer/3rd catcher type, power off bench?

    Eric A Longenhagen
    12:04 I think there's enough going on that he has some kind of big league role, yes. And I don't rule him out as a regular just yet. I've probably said this before, but evaluating catcher defense in the AFL is really tough. Guys are ground down from a long season and also suddenly catching an entirely new staff. I've had many scouts warn me of mistakes they've made by weighing AFL looks at catchers too heavily.
    AJax fits the mold of an average or slightly better bat without a position to play other than 1B, where his bat won't be good enough to carry. Some team will try to shoehorn him in LF for a while until he's too expensive for the overall production he provides.

    Lazy comp: RHed Matt Adams.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    AJax fits the mold of an average or slightly better bat without a position to play other than 1B, where his bat won't be good enough to carry. Some team will try to shoehorn him in LF for a while until he's too expensive for the overall production he provides.

    Lazy comp: RHed Matt Adams.
    Matt Adams isn't a terrible comp. If Jackson could hit like Adams in the majors and play average defense behind the plate then he's a pretty good starter. However, I don't know if he'll ever be average behind the plate.

    If Jackson can at least not embarrass himself behind the plate while playing some left and first and hitting like Adams, he's a pretty valuable bench piece.

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    We all said the same thing about Evan Gattis.

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    Anyone have scouting reports on Jackson's OF defense during his stint in the Mariners' system?

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    Quote Originally Posted by 50PoundHead View Post
    Anyone have scouting reports on Jackson's OF defense during his stint in the Mariners' system?
    Ben Chase loosely likened him to Adam Duvall earlier (https://tomahawktake.com/2016/12/02/...-alex-jackson/), but I'd expect he'd still need to work on his reads to get close to that level. Even so, if he could get within range of Duvall defensively, that would be fine since he won't need to be quite as good in LF. Jason Churchill mentioned that he was handling RF just fine as late as the middle of 2016 - http://prospectinsider.com/ms-mid-se...-20-prospects/
    .
    Bernie Pleskoff mentioned that he actually was an OF before switching to Catcher in high school (hadn't heard that before), and says it's fair to question whether he'll wind up being better behind the plate than Mike Zunino so maybe we won't need to find out.

    https://www.fanragsports.com/pleskof...-alex-jackson/
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    Since being moved out of the lead off spot, Acuna has caught fire. hitting 2nd, last 6 games have produced all of his XBHs 4 DBLs, 3 HRs.

    He is currently hitting .366 with 15 jhits in 41 ABs, 9 RBIs, 6 BBs, 10 Ks, 2 SB, 1 CS, .440 OBP, .683 Slg, 1123 OPS.

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