If the Braves make no moves this offseason and just rely on improvements from players on the roster to organically improve the team, here is how I project the 2018 team:
# Pos Player Salary WAR
1 C Flowers $4.00 4
2 1B Freeman $21.00 6
3 2B Albies $0.55 3
4 3B Camargo $0.55 2
5 SS Swanson $0.55 1
6 LF Kemp $18.25 0
7 CF Inciarte $4.70 3
8 RF Markakis $11.00 1
9 SP1 Teheran $8.00 2
10 SP2 Folty $2.70 2
11 SP3 Dickey $8.00 1
12 SP4 Newk $0.55 2
13 SP5 Gohara $0.55 3
14 BN1 M Adams $4.60 3
15 BN2 Rio $0.55
16 BN3 Santana $1.10
17 BN4 L Adams $0.55
18 BN5 Suzuki $3.50
19 BP1 JJ $5.00 2
20 BP2 Viz $3.70
21 BP3 Freeman $1.20
22 BP4 Ramirez $0.55
23 BP5 Minter $0.55
24 BP6 Winkler $0.80
25 BP7 Wisler $0.55
Total $103.05 83
I expect some fairly heavy regression at the C position (Flower's 4 WAR includes framing and some contribution from Suzuki).
I think Albies will be an above average player at 2B, Swanson will continue to underwhelm at SS, and Camargo should provide glove-first production at 3B that hovers around average.
Freeman should to continue to be a 6 WAR beast.
The OF will continue to be garbage with Inciarte starting into his defensive decline, but still posting a solid 3 WAR.
I project the rotation as a whole to naturally improve from 8.7 WAR in 2017 (#18 in MLB) to ~10 WAR in 2018 (about #15), mainly due to a full season of Gohara and the debuts of Soroka and Allard.
The BP will probably improve from 1.1 WAR in 2017 (#28 in MLB) to ~2 WAR (about #20), almost entirely due to full seasons of Winkler and Minter, as well as some regression by Freeman.
With Adams in the mix, I project the bench to provide another 3 wins.
So with no upgrades made to the roster, I'm looking at an 83 win team at the cost of $103M. Add another 1 WAR from the FA BP upgrades the FO is promising, and that's 84 wins at my projected payroll cap of ~$110M.
Now we are talking about a team worth making additions to! Acuna obviously replaces Kemp (DFA'd, nobody will take any part of him) for a 2 WAR upgrade, bringing us to 86 wins and still $110M.
The question then becomes, do the Braves sitting at 85+ projected wins dump Markakis (I think there will be teams willing to take his whole contract for no return) and use that $11M to bring in a guy like Piscotty, Avi Garcia, or Ozuna for another 1-3 win upgrade? Do they dump Dickey, trade MAdams, and use that money to bring in another SP like Odorizzi or Cobb or Sabathia?
How "all in" should the Braves go this offseason?
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