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Thread: The Buy Low Challenge

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    The Buy Low Challenge

    There are two relatively young outfielders, Aaron Hicks and Marciel Puig, who could have been had for a song and have been important parts of their teams' success this season. For various reasons their teams were willing to give up on them in spite of good pedigrees and in Puig's case past success in the majors. Anyone along those lines you think the Braves should be looking to pick up?

    There are also at times more experienced players who fail to live up to contracts or past performance who can be had at sharp discounts. Greinke last off-season is one who comes to mind. Verlander too at various points in recent years.

    The buy low opportunities come in various shapes and forms. I think two ex-Braves (Prado and Heyward) are interesting guys to look at. On the pitching side, maybe Cueto and Price. Obviously, in those cases the amount of $$ the other team is willing to pick up is key.

    Who do you see as some buy low opportunities?
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    There are two relatively young outfielders, Aaron Hicks and Marciel Puig, who could have been had for a song and have been important parts of their teams' success this season. For various reasons their teams were willing to give up on them in spite of good pedigrees and in Puig's case past success in the majors. Anyone along those lines you think the Braves should be looking to pick up?

    There are also at times more experienced players who fail to live up to contracts or past performance who can be had at sharp discounts. Greinke last off-season is one who comes to mind. Verlander too at various points in recent years.

    The buy low opportunities come in various shapes and forms. I think two ex-Braves (Prado and Heyward) are interesting guys to look at. On the pitching side, maybe Cueto and Price. Obviously, in those cases the amount of $$ the other team is willing to pick up is key.

    Who do you see as some buy low opportunities?
    On the SP front, my buy low FA candidate is Chacin. After injury problems, he has ramped his innings back up to 140 in 2016, and 180 last year at the age of 29. He produced 1.7 fWAR in 2016, then 2.3 last year. His xwOBA in 2016 was 0.329, then 0.303 last year. I think he could be a #3/4 next year who produces 2-3 WAR while being paid like a 5th SP.

    On the BP front, I like Morrow, Neshek, Hunter and Smith, in that order. All 4 place in the Top 10 for FA BP arms in K rate, BB rate, and xwOBA over the last 2 years. I don't think Morrow or Neshek are "buy low" candidates, but Hunter and Smith could be good value adds for the BP.

    As far as Braves players are concerned, Teheran is the primary buy low candidate for other teams. His struggles are almost solely due to an increased BB rate, which we have seen him correct before. I would hate to see the Braves sell low on him now, but other teams would be wise to come calling.

    Swanson also falls in that camp, but I doubt the Braves would ever seriously consider trading him now.
    Last edited by Enscheff; 10-20-2017 at 10:59 AM.

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    Buy low options for position players are harder to nail down. I like the idea of taking Prado off the Marlins' hands, especially if he comes as part of a package with Ozuna that lowers the value of the prospect package going to Miami. I like Avisail Garcia as a trade candidate from Chicago, but I'm not sure he qualifies as "buy low"...if anything, he is a "sell high" guy that I think is worth the inflated price because his improvements are real.

    The first guy I can come up with as a true buy low candidate is Piscotty from the Cards. They are going to be looking to clear space in their OF, so a trade is imminent. Piscotty's contract is 5/32 or 6/46 if the option is picked up and covers his age 27-31/32 seasons. He stumbled to a .708 OPS last year, but still posted a .342 OBP. He is slightly below average in the OF, but certainly a massive upgrade over Kemp defensively.

    His xwOBA has declined every year from 0.360 to 0.345 to 0.337 last year. He was the 2nd most unlucky Cardinal batter last year based on xwOBA delta. Even his poor 2017 would have made him the 5th best hitter on the Braves who accumulated 250+ ABs. He should still remain an average or better hitter in 2018, and with better luck should produce 2+ fWAR in a full time role.

    If he can be had for a minimal return (slightly more than a straight salary dump), he might be a good buy low candidate to upgrade LF cheaply.

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    How could I forget the most obvious buy low candidate in MLB? Profar!

    Nothing really suggests he will be good other than the fact he was once an elite prospect, but if Camargo goes somewhere else, Profar would be a very interesting gamble to take at 3B for a team that probably isn't going to win much in 2018.

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    Maikel Franco...much of his apparent decline in 2017 is tied to a .234 BABIP.
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    Lots of good suggestions. I was all in on Hicks when the Twins made it clear he was available, but was roundly hooted down on the board (of course, my constant lobbying for Hessman has rightfully clouded other posters' opinion of my player assessment skills). Gardenhire mishandled Hicks terribly. Can't believe the Tigers went with Gardy to pilot their rebuild.

    I especially like the Piscotty suggestion. I always thought that the Braves should have made the Heyward deal a little bigger on what we sent to the Cardinals so we could have received either Piscotty or Grichuk in the deal. Piscotty would be an upgrade in either LF or RF and can also back up 1B (although he hasn't played there a ton).

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