Projecting Mike Soroka

[Enscheff]

Over the last 2 years, Soroka has thrown nearly 300 innings between A/AA while being 4-5 years younger than the league average player. His K rate was in the mid 7's, and his BB rate was right around 2. Soroka is probably best described as a workhorse contact pitcher with plus or better command.

So, how good are those type of pitchers? Since 2000, there have been 13 pitchers who have thrown 150+ innings with a below average K rate (7.0-7.5) and a plus BB rate (1.9-2.1). Here are those pitchers along with the fWAR and xwOBA (if available) they produced that season:

1 2011 Chris Carpenter, 4.8
2 2014 Adam Wainwright, 5.0
3 2008 Roy Oswalt, 3.7
4 2013 Ricky Nolasco, 3.2
5 2012 Johnny Cueto, 4.7
6 2011 Gavin Floyd, 3.2
7 2012 Jordan Zimmermann, 3.3
8 2015 Johnny Cueto, 4.0, 0.302 wxOBA
9 2007 John Lackey, 5.0
10 2016 Zach Davies, 2.7, 0.298 wxOBA
11 2012 Dan Haren, 1.8
12 2015 Wei-Yin Chen, 2.7, 0.303 wxOBA
13 2006 Chris Capuano, 4.0

The average fWAR for those 13 seasons is 3.7, which is the definition of a good #3 SP.

The available wxOBA numbers are right around 0.300, which is the definition of a #3 SP.

Further constrict the list to those pitchers with 45%+ GB rates like Soroka, a we are left with 5 guys:

1 2011 Chris Carpenter, 4.8
2 2008 Roy Oswalt, 3.7
3 2012 Johnny Cueto, 4.7
4 2014 Adam Wainwright, 5.0
5 2016 Zach Davies, 2.7, 0.298 wxOBA

Those guys averaged 4.2 fWAR in those seasons.

I'm not saying Soroka is going to come in and be a consistent 3-4 fWAR SP, but I think that will be his peak performance for 1-2 years. To me, Soroka ranks behind only Gohara and Wright as far as Braves pitching prospects are concerned. His plus or better control over an average arsenal gives him an extremely high floor as a SP.

[MadduxFanII]

Aren’t you comparing unlike data sets - Soroka’s minor league numbers and that group’s big league stats?

[Enscheff]

Aren’t you comparing unlike data sets - Soroka’s minor league numbers and that group’s big league stats?

Yes. The reason I feel comfortable doing it is because Soroka is so young for his level that I think he could duplicate those K, BB and GB rates at the MLB level at his peak. I expect the seasons I referenced to represent his peak production for 1-2 years.

[BeanieAntics]

Yes. The reason I feel comfortable doing it is because Soroka is so young for his level that I think he could duplicate those K, BB and GB rates at the MLB level at his peak. I expect the seasons I referenced to represent his peak production for 1-2 years.

I agree with your assessment for the most part. I actually think that Soroka could have a slightly bigger peak window and producing those numbers for perhaps 3-4 years. I don't often say that with pitching prospects, but I think Soroka has a better shot than most to do that. He is one of those weird guys who is a top prospect, yet his floor and ceiling are very close to each other. At any rate, he is certainly one of our more exciting prospects.

[Enscheff]

I agree with your assessment for the most part. I actually think that Soroka could have a slightly bigger peak window and producing those numbers for perhaps 3-4 years. I don't often say that with pitching prospects, but I think Soroka has a better shot than most to do that. He is one of those weird guys who is a top prospect, yet his floor and ceiling are very close to each other. At any rate, he is certainly one of our more exciting prospects.

I can see him pitching like that for 3-4 years, but as we see in the list of names, pitchers who rely on control and contact also rely heavily on defense and luck. Some of his peak seasons will result in ~2 fWAR, while a couple others will be worth upwards of 4 fWAR.

[striker42]

What do we get if we add in the fact that his HR rate is about 0.35 per 9? I'd be willing to go as high as 0.50 based on recent results.

[Enscheff]

What do we get if we add in the fact that his HR rate is about 0.35 per 9? I'd be willing to go as high as 0.50 based on recent results.

Only 2014 Waino matches that criteria, though 2011 Chris Carpenter and 2012 Johnny Cueto put up 0.6 values. It's basically the 45%+ GB list minus Oswalt (1.0) and Davies (1.1), which makes sense since GB pitchers should allow fewer HRs.

The list of 13 ranged from 0.4 to 1.4 with an average of about 0.9. I would expect Soroka to be right around average for that list in that category, just like I expect his overall peak to be about average on that list. I don't think he is special compared to the players on those 2 lists, so I see no reason to expect him to be special in terms of HR suppression.

I seriously doubt any Braves pitcher is ever very good at suppressing HRs in SunTrust.

[Southcack77]

Only 2014 Waino matches that criteria, though 2011 Chris Carpenter and 2012 Johnny Cueto put up 0.6 values. It's basically the 45%+ GB list minus Oswalt (1.0) and Davies (1.1), which makes sense since GB pitchers should allow fewer HRs.

The list of 13 ranged from 0.4 to 1.4 with an average of about 0.9. I would expect Soroka to be right around average for that list in that category, just like I expect his overall peak to be about average on that list. I don't think he is special compared to the players on those 2 lists, so I see no reason to expect him to be special in terms of HR suppression.

I seriously doubt any Braves pitcher is ever very good at suppressing HRs in SunTrust.

Does Suntrust really produce higher HR rates. I'm sure there are problems with ESPN's approach, but it has Suntrust 19th in that category.

[Enscheff]

Does Suntrust really produce higher HR rates. I'm sure there are problems with ESPN's approach, but it has Suntrust 19th in that category.

Here's the latest data I can find:

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/mid-...factor-update/

Turner was always a pitcher friendly place for FBs at around 75%.

SunTrust through July of 2017 was very hitter friendly on FBs, right up there with Houston and Milwaukee.

Something may have happened in the 2nd half of 2017, but I'm guessing it's still HR friendly. Still well behind Cincinnati and Colorado though.