Discussion of Braves 2018 Offseason plans

[Horsehide Harry]

As I understand it, the Braves are in the pool of Non-disqualified Revenue Sharing Payees and "If one of these teams signs a qualified free agent, it forfeits its third-highest pick. These teams face the smallest draft pick penalty."

By third highest pick I take it to mean 3rd round pick IF a team has a traditional 1,2,3 type draft (no competitive balance picks, etc.). Given that the Braves are forfeiting their 3rd round pick already, I would assume that the pick given up would be the 4th rounder for the first qualified FA, 5th for the next etc. IF that is the case, then the Braves making a play for a guy like Alex Cobb might make sense IF they combine that with a different move designed to keep payroll in line.

I wonder what the commissioner's office would make of that kind of strategy and if it has already been addressed.

[Southcack77]

As I understand it, the Braves are in the pool of Non-disqualified Revenue Sharing Payees and "If one of these teams signs a qualified free agent, it forfeits its third-highest pick. These teams face the smallest draft pick penalty."

By third highest pick I take it to mean 3rd round pick IF a team has a traditional 1,2,3 type draft (no competitive balance picks, etc.). Given that the Braves are forfeiting their 3rd round pick already, I would assume that the pick given up would be the 4th rounder for the first qualified FA, 5th for the next etc. IF that is the case, then the Braves making a play for a guy like Alex Cobb might make sense IF they combine that with a different move designed to keep payroll in line.

I wonder what the commissioner's office would make of that kind of strategy and if it has already been addressed.

Can the Braves afford any additional hit from their draft bonus pool though?

With the prospect losses they arguably need quantity.

[Russ2dollas]

The braves should not give up any pick and fa premium dollar for any pitcher. That is insane. We have a million pitchers and just got more from the dodgers.

The only way that makes sense is if a guy falls to where you are getting him on a very team friendly deal. I don’t see that happening. Best we could hope for is a guy like Frazier needing a pillow deal.

[Enscheff]

Can the Braves afford any additional hit from their draft bonus pool though?

With the prospect losses they arguably need quantity.

Agreed completely.

To further your point, Longenhagen claims this draft is deep in prep pitchers through round 5 that are round 3 talents. If he is right, this is NOT the draft to be giving up picks in rounds 3-5.

[Chico]

I agree that this is not the year to be losing a pick. The loss of the pick and the hit to the overall bonus pool isn't worth it. It's AA's first draft and he's already ata disadvantage. I doubt he wants to compound that by losing another pick. I think there's a good chance he tries to trade for another pick in June once he has a better overall grip of the farm system.

[clvclv]

Losing a pick is certainly the wrong thing to do at this point - especially given the likelihood that you very well may be adding three more arms in Rounds 1-3, and that could arguably be the case if you go BPA.

That said (and assuming the money is available and/or the budget can be stretched a little), NOT ponying up enough money or offering two guaranteed years to Frazier (if that's what it takes to land him) or trading for Headley (as long as the price is right) would seem to be a huge mistake as far as 2018 is concerned. Backload a deal for Frazier if you need to - the money is certainly going to be there next season if you need it. I'd even go so far as to offer Maybin two (backloaded) guaranteed years as well.

Signing Maybin buys you whatever amount of time you need to play games with Acuna's clock - and gives you a solid 4th OF with speed and good defense in 2019. Signing Frazier buys a full year PLUS at the upper levels to see what you have in Riley. With all the money available for 2019, even the backloaded deals won't get in the way IF AA decides to make a play for Donaldson (and they'd give you the makings of a *elluva bench in 2019 with Frazier spelling Freddie and Donaldson at least once a week to help keep them healthy, Maybin to plug in at any OF spot to help in the same capacity, and Camargo to keep Albies and Swanson fresh).

Assuming it takes a while for the Marlins to get someone to blow them away with an offer for Yelich, AA can get a good look at Folty/Newcomb/Fried/Soroka/Allard/Wright/Wentz/Anderson and decide if he's willing to be that guy that does it (heaven knows we've got more of what they're looking for than anyone else does). Assuming you're able to hold onto Gohara and Wright or Soroka to pair with Julio and Folty, there are several viable veterans you can add to fill out the 2019 rotation (Patrick Corbin, J. A. Happ, Charlie Morton, Drew Pomeranz, Garrett Richards, Drew Smyly, bringing back McCarthy for another year if he has a somewhat healthy 2018, maybe even bringing Wainright back home to finish his career) with all that money available. You'd "replace" at least one of the arms in a Yelich deal with the #8 pick.



Great daydream to have for the first 2019 dream roster of the New Year...

Ender, Acuna, Freeman, Donaldson, Yelich, Flowers, Albies, Swanson

Backup C, Frazier, Maybin, Camargo

Gohara, Teheran, Newcomb, Folty, Wright/veteran on a 1 year deal

[Horsehide Harry]

While I don't want to see the Braves lose a pick, I can see a strategic advantage here. Here's my thinking: You sign Alex Cobb. Then you trade one or both of Teheran and Folty. Just as an example, Milwaukee is after Cobb. If the Braves sign him, there's a good chance that the Brewers would be interested in either Teheran or Folty. Let's assume, for the sake of argument, that the Braves could make a trade with the Brewers along the likes of: Teheran for Phillips and Tristen Lutz. Lutz was the 34th pick in the 2017 draft and Phillips is ML ready and can play all three OF positions.

So, you would be signing a player arguably better than Teheran in Cobb (Cobb>Teheran) then acquiring a high draft pick and a ML ready OF for a 3rd round pick in the 2018 draft. That 3rd round pick comes with a diminished chance to get a good pick by the nature of it being in the 3rd round AND Lutz and Phillips are both more known commodities.

Where the idea breaks down is if the Braves sign Cobb then don't trade another pitcher for a return better than the potential of the 3rd round pick.

Another thing to consider: chances are that a 3rd round pick may require over slot money to sign which means the pick actually cuts into what you can offer to your other picks. Yes you would lose the slot money for the pick IF you signed a FA but not the money that you may or may not have had to overpay to get the pick signed. You could always argue that the Braves would go signability for that pick, but that goes against the idea of BPA that the argument for keeping the pick is partly based upon.

The same argument can be made for Lynn and or Arrieta if the Braves had money for that and their market was deflated enough for it to make sense. Let's say the Braves sign Lynn to a 4 year $56M deal (what MLBTR predicted he would get). and then the Braves traded Folty and Markakis to the Orioles for Austin Hays and Hunter Harvey but have to give up the 5th round pick. Same reasoning as above.

[Chico]

When discussing rather or not to make a trade this offseason with our pitching prospect depth I go back and forth on that. The smart thing to do would be to wait it out another year and let AA and his team gain a better understanding of the value of our prospects and decide on who they want to keep and who they believe is expendable. However, I can't help but to remember this time last year that Fried and Weigel were mentioned in trade scenarios (with others) as both of their stocks were high. Fried had a down year and Weigel got injured. Fried has bounced back some and Weigel is still a legit log term prospect, but did we miss a chance to trade them at their peak value last year?

All of our pitching prospects in the minors took a step forward last year outside of Muller. Prospects are volatile, pitchers are at a risk of getting injured, and another season allows eveeryone else to gain a better understanding of our prospects as well.

I don't think we wiill make a big move like that, but I'd hate to sit back in a year and wonder who we could've traded high on. Then again that's a gamble. Who takes a Bryse Wilson like step forward we sold low on?

[Horsehide Harry]

When discussing rather or not to make a trade this offseason with our pitching prospect depth I go back and forth on that. The smart thing to do would be to wait it out another year and let AA and his team gain a better understanding of the value of our prospects and decide on who they want to keep and who they believe is expendable. However, I can't help but to remember this time last year that Fried and Weigel were mentioned in trade scenarios (with others) as both of their stocks were high. Fried had a down year and Weigel got injured. Fried has bounced back some and Weigel is still a legit log term prospect, but did we miss a chance to trade them at their peak value last year?

All of our pitching prospects in the minors took a step forward last year outside of Muller. Prospects are volatile, pitchers are at a risk of getting injured, and another season allows eveeryone else to gain a better understanding of our prospects as well.

I don't think we wiill make a big move like that, but I'd hate to sit back in a year and wonder who we could've traded high on. Then again that's a gamble. Who takes a Bryse Wilson like step forward we sold low on?

Few want to discuss trading from the current crop of ML pitching. When discussing trade most want to consider trading from the bag of pitching prospects. There are pros and cons to both. However, I prefer to look at trading from off the current ML staff and hang on to the prospects because I don't see Teheran or Folty as long term difference makers (at least in the window the Braves are trying to set up) AND because I see their money cost (however reasonable it may be) as a detriment to making other moves. I might look at it differently if I really believed 2018 meant anything in the bigger picture. One of the big advantage of prospects is their cost and control.

To make a trade that would really help the team, trading for a 4+ win player, would require giving up a lot of minor league talent even assuming such a player is 1. available 2. cheap enough to fit into the budget and 3. plays a position of need.

Spending prospects to bring in 2 WAR guys just doesn't make any sense to me. If you want those guys go sign them in FA.

[Chico]

Few want to discuss trading from the current crop of ML pitching. When discussing trade most want to consider trading from the bag of pitching prospects. There are pros and cons to both. However, I prefer to look at trading from off the current ML staff and hang on to the prospects because I don't see Teheran or Folty as long term difference makers (at least in the window the Braves are trying to set up) AND because I see their money cost (however reasonable it may be) as a detriment to making other moves. I might look at it differently if I really believed 2018 meant anything in the bigger picture. One of the big advantage of prospects is their cost and control.

To make a trade that would really help the team, trading for a 4+ win player, would require giving up a lot of minor league talent even assuming such a player is 1. available 2. cheap enough to fit into the budget and 3. plays a position of need.

Spending prospects to bring in 2 WAR guys just doesn't make any sense to me. If you want those guys go sign them in FA.

I'm fine with trading from the major league team. The problem with that now is nobody is at probable peak value. I wanted to trade Julio 2 years ago and wanted to trade Folty last offseason. I think it would be selling low to sell either this offseason.

[Enscheff]

Losing a pick is certainly the wrong thing to do at this point - especially given the likelihood that you very well may be adding three more arms in Rounds 1-3, and that could arguably be the case if you go BPA.

That said (and assuming the money is available and/or the budget can be stretched a little), NOT ponying up enough money or offering two guaranteed years to Frazier (if that's what it takes to land him) or trading for Headley (as long as the price is right) would seem to be a huge mistake as far as 2018 is concerned. Backload a deal for Frazier if you need to - the money is certainly going to be there next season if you need it. I'd even go so far as to offer Maybin two (backloaded) guaranteed years as well.

Signing Maybin buys you whatever amount of time you need to play games with Acuna's clock - and gives you a solid 4th OF with speed and good defense in 2019. Signing Frazier buys a full year PLUS at the upper levels to see what you have in Riley. With all the money available for 2019, even the backloaded deals won't get in the way IF AA decides to make a play for Donaldson (and they'd give you the makings of a *elluva bench in 2019 with Frazier spelling Freddie and Donaldson at least once a week to help keep them healthy, Maybin to plug in at any OF spot to help in the same capacity, and Camargo to keep Albies and Swanson fresh).

Assuming it takes a while for the Marlins to get someone to blow them away with an offer for Yelich, AA can get a good look at Folty/Newcomb/Fried/Soroka/Allard/Wright/Wentz/Anderson and decide if he's willing to be that guy that does it (heaven knows we've got more of what they're looking for than anyone else does). Assuming you're able to hold onto Gohara and Wright or Soroka to pair with Julio and Folty, there are several viable veterans you can add to fill out the 2019 rotation (Patrick Corbin, J. A. Happ, Charlie Morton, Drew Pomeranz, Garrett Richards, Drew Smyly, bringing back McCarthy for another year if he has a somewhat healthy 2018, maybe even bringing Wainright back home to finish his career) with all that money available. You'd "replace" at least one of the arms in a Yelich deal with the #8 pick.



Great daydream to have for the first 2019 dream roster of the New Year...

Ender, Acuna, Freeman, Donaldson, Yelich, Flowers, Albies, Swanson

Backup C, Frazier, Maybin, Camargo

Gohara, Teheran, Newcomb, Folty, Wright/veteran on a 1 year deal

Just so I'm clear...

You think the Braves could afford to have Donaldson at 3B, Yelich in the OF, with Maybin and Todd Frazier on the bench?

Do you have any idea how much that roster would cost?

[Enscheff]

While I don't want to see the Braves lose a pick, I can see a strategic advantage here. Here's my thinking: You sign Alex Cobb. Then you trade one or both of Teheran and Folty. Just as an example, Milwaukee is after Cobb. If the Braves sign him, there's a good chance that the Brewers would be interested in either Teheran or Folty. Let's assume, for the sake of argument, that the Braves could make a trade with the Brewers along the likes of: Teheran for Phillips and Tristen Lutz. Lutz was the 34th pick in the 2017 draft and Phillips is ML ready and can play all three OF positions.

So, you would be signing a player arguably better than Teheran in Cobb (Cobb>Teheran) then acquiring a high draft pick and a ML ready OF for a 3rd round pick in the 2018 draft. That 3rd round pick comes with a diminished chance to get a good pick by the nature of it being in the 3rd round AND Lutz and Phillips are both more known commodities.

Where the idea breaks down is if the Braves sign Cobb then don't trade another pitcher for a return better than the potential of the 3rd round pick.

Another thing to consider: chances are that a 3rd round pick may require over slot money to sign which means the pick actually cuts into what you can offer to your other picks. Yes you would lose the slot money for the pick IF you signed a FA but not the money that you may or may not have had to overpay to get the pick signed. You could always argue that the Braves would go signability for that pick, but that goes against the idea of BPA that the argument for keeping the pick is partly based upon.

The same argument can be made for Lynn and or Arrieta if the Braves had money for that and their market was deflated enough for it to make sense. Let's say the Braves sign Lynn to a 4 year $56M deal (what MLBTR predicted he would get). and then the Braves traded Folty and Markakis to the Orioles for Austin Hays and Hunter Harvey but have to give up the 5th round pick. Same reasoning as above.

Is Alex Cobb better than Teheran? Cobb is looking for Leake money (5/80). Cobb's best season was 2.8 fWAR. Cobb's highest IP total was 179. Cobb just had TJ surgery. Cobb is going into his age 31 season.

It would be extremely foolish to trade Teheran and replace him with Cobb.

[Enscheff]

When discussing rather or not to make a trade this offseason with our pitching prospect depth I go back and forth on that. The smart thing to do would be to wait it out another year and let AA and his team gain a better understanding of the value of our prospects and decide on who they want to keep and who they believe is expendable. However, I can't help but to remember this time last year that Fried and Weigel were mentioned in trade scenarios (with others) as both of their stocks were high. Fried had a down year and Weigel got injured. Fried has bounced back some and Weigel is still a legit log term prospect, but did we miss a chance to trade them at their peak value last year?

All of our pitching prospects in the minors took a step forward last year outside of Muller. Prospects are volatile, pitchers are at a risk of getting injured, and another season allows eveeryone else to gain a better understanding of our prospects as well.

I don't think we wiill make a big move like that, but I'd hate to sit back in a year and wonder who we could've traded high on. Then again that's a gamble. Who takes a Bryse Wilson like step forward we sold low on?

The problem is the Dodgers likely have equipment in all their minor league parks and training facilities to measure all aspects of their pitching prospects.

The Braves had the most poorly calibrated Statcast system of all MLB teams, so it is unlikely they have outfitted their minor league facilities.

AA probably doesn't even have the data he needs on the Braves pitching prospects to make these decisions. I'm guessing they are being installed now, or will be soon, and AA needs to use this season to collect data so they can make these types of decisions.

[Horsehide Harry]

Is Alex Cobb better than Teheran? Cobb is looking for Leake money (5/80). Cobb's best season was 2.8 fWAR. Cobb's highest IP total was 179. Cobb just had TJ surgery. Cobb is going into his age 31 season.

It would be extremely foolish to trade Teheran and replace him with Cobb.

Obviously, you don't sign him IF you are the Braves and it takes 5/80. I think it will take less because teams don't want to give up the pick(s). Neither Cobb nor Lynn are the kind of guys that you pay in money and in talent (picks) when there are other options IF you are competing. If the Braves can get Cobb for somewhere close to the 4/48 or Lynn to the 4/56 that MLBTR predicts for them then I think it would be worth it provided that you use Teheran and/or Folty to bring back other young cheap talent and prospects that help down the road, which is a different way of approaching the same problem as the draft but with more known results (assuming your scouting is good and you choose wisely from the other team).

Teheran is owed $31M over the next 3 years (assuming his option is picked up) or an AAV of about $10M. bWAR says that both Cobb and Lynn are better pitchers than Teheran right now, even coming off of injury. It would be a bit of a gamble but it would depend on what you got back in trade for Teheran. The equation would be something like Teheran (3/31) + 2018 3rd rounder forfeit <=> Cobb(4/48) + Phillips + Lutz (using my Milwaukee trade from above). Yes Cobb has had TJ and is 30 while Teheran is 27. But nothing says that you couldn't trade Cobb at the deadline 2018 or next offseason or in the future. The idea is to take advantage of a depressed market for a good pitcher to get a good value contract while trading another pitcher already on a good value contract for more talent and potentially trading Cobb and his value for more talent down the road all while giving up a 3rd round pick.

But you have to move fast because Milwaukee or some other team might just decide that Cobb is worth the reduced contract and sign him themselves. The BRaves would need to put themselves into position where they have to commit to trading Teheran first while Cobb holds to his high demands. The Braves make the trade with Milwaukee with Teheran under the assumption that they may not get a chance at Cobb but holding enough back to make the signing in case his asking price comes down and the seats start filling up.

[Enscheff]

Obviously, you don't sign him IF you are the Braves and it takes 5/80. I think it will take less because teams don't want to give up the pick(s). Neither Cobb nor Lynn are the kind of guys that you pay in money and in talent (picks) when there are other options IF you are competing. If the Braves can get Cobb for somewhere close to the 4/48 or Lynn to the 4/56 that MLBTR predicts for them then I think it would be worth it provided that you use Teheran and/or Folty to bring back other young cheap talent and prospects that help down the road, which is a different way of approaching the same problem as the draft but with more known results (assuming your scouting is good and you choose wisely from the other team).

Teheran is owed $31M over the next 3 years (assuming his option is picked up) or an AAV of about $10M. bWAR says that both Cobb and Lynn are better pitchers than Teheran right now, even coming off of injury. It would be a bit of a gamble but it would depend on what you got back in trade for Teheran. The equation would be something like Teheran (3/31) + 2018 3rd rounder forfeit <=> Cobb(4/48) + Phillips + Lutz (using my Milwaukee trade from above). Yes Cobb has had TJ and is 30 while Teheran is 27. But nothing says that you couldn't trade Cobb at the deadline 2018 or next offseason or in the future. The idea is to take advantage of a depressed market for a good pitcher to get a good value contract while trading another pitcher already on a good value contract for more talent and potentially trading Cobb and his value for more talent down the road all while giving up a 3rd round pick.

But you have to move fast because Milwaukee or some other team might just decide that Cobb is worth the reduced contract and sign him themselves. The BRaves would need to put themselves into position where they have to commit to trading Teheran first while Cobb holds to his high demands. The Braves make the trade with Milwaukee with Teheran under the assumption that they may not get a chance at Cobb but holding enough back to make the signing in case his asking price comes down and the seats start filling up.

And that right there is why it is unlikely to happen. By the time the price of Cobb or Lynn drops enough to make trading Teheran worthwhile, contenders will just sign Cobb or Lynn and keep their prospects. No team is going to be suddenly caught off guard that Cobb's price has dropped.

Teheran's value lies in his affordable contract. If Lynn or Cobb are going to make barely more than Teheran he suddenly has no trade value. That's the entire basis of trade value...being more productive at a lower cost than a similar player available as a FA.

[Chico]

It seems every offseason there's a couple of players everyone identifies as underrated and then they become overrated. I think Alex Cobb becomes that guy of this offseason.

Lynn has always seemed like a bad idea to me. I think he may get noticably less than Cobb when it's all said and done.

[Tapate50]

Didn't know where else to put this but some Braves Prospect\Player projections from the guys over at FGs were bandied about in a chat, and positively !

Said Acuna projects to a 2 WAR player as a 20 year old.

And the projection systems seem to think the mean HR totals for Albies will be 15-20!

I was shocked by both.

That'd be good reason to lock up OZ.

[Julio3000]

Didn't know where else to put this but some Braves Prospect\Player projections from the guys over at FGs were bandied about in a chat, and positively !

Said Acuna projects to a 2 WAR player as a 20 year old.

And the projection systems seem to think the mean HR totals for Albies will be 15-20!

I was shocked by both.

That'd be good reason to lock up OZ.

I've said it before, but watching Oz for a bit in the minors was enough to convince me that the Dee Gordon projections were wrong for him. His hands were so quick and he was so good at barreling and driving the ball that it was not a stretch to peg as a double-digit HR guy even then . . . and the year that I saw him the most, he didn't hit a single HR. He hit 15 between AAA/MLB last year, at age 20, so that projection doesn't seem outlandish.

[Tapate50]

I've said it before, but watching Oz for a bit in the minors was enough to convince me that the Dee Gordon projections were wrong for him. His hands were so quick and he was so good at barreling and driving the ball that it was not a stretch to peg as a double-digit HR guy even then . . . and the year that I saw him the most, he didn't hit a single HR. He hit 15 between AAA/MLB last year, at age 20, so that projection doesn't seem outlandish.

You did. Even I was in that corner a bit, but never thought he would peak that high. Maybe 13-15 range?

Boy if Dansbo rebounds.... this thing could get interesting

[thethe]

You did. Even I was in that corner a bit, but never thought he would peak that high. Maybe 13-15 range?

Boy if Dansbo rebounds.... this thing could get interesting

Yup - And then Gohara continuing looking like a potential ace. The bullpen being stacked with high leverage arms. I mean - 86 wins isn't crazy to think.