Discussion of Braves 2018 Offseason plans

[thewupk]

I still think it matters from a Team perspective. It's pretty rare that a Team makes the playoffs, and rarer still that they do anything when they get there, if they are significantly below league average for Team HR power. You can look it up. I have. Last year in the AL of the 5 Teams to make the playoffs: The Yankees led the league with 241, the Astros were second with 238, Cleveland was right above average with 212, Minnesota was right below average with 206 and Boston was dead last in the AL with 168 (but still ahead of the Braves 165). League average was 211.

In the NL it broke down like this: The Cubs were 3rd in the league and had 223, Dodgers 221, Diamondbacks 220, GNats 215, Rockies 192. League average was 196.

So yes, the HR numbers were inflated, but once again the best teams were at least league average or better in Team HR.

The real outlier from last year was Boston. They were the second best pitching in the league behind Cleveland but their offense was nothing special.

In a typical year, historically over the last 25 years, team average for HR is about ~150. If you look at the current and projected Braves team: Freeman (30-40), Catching (15-25), Albies (10-15), Swanson (10), 3B (10-15), Markakis (5-10), Inciarte (10), LF (20-25), Bench (10-15) gives you a team projection of about 160 team HR for 2018 assuming top end HR production for everybody. So, unless you believe that the pitching staff is going to be one of the best in baseball (and I don't), then statistically and historically, this isn't going to be a team that competes for anything. As everyone knows RF and 3B are serious problems for the Braves.

Yes, power is the easiest way to having a good offense in baseball. Not necessary but is the easiest way. But someone like Albies having 15-20 homers in 2018 is a lot different than Albies having 15-20 homers in 2010 for example.

Al

[Horsehide Harry]

Yes, power is the easiest way to having a good offense in baseball. Not necessary but is the easiest way. But someone like Albies having 15-20 homers in 2018 is a lot different than Albies having 15-20 homers in 2010 for example.

Al

No question. But even if HR totals are inflated the importance of being somewhere near or above the league average mark hasn't changed. So, having Albies hit 15-20 HR in 2018 vs the same Albies hitting 10-15 in 2010 has equivalence. Having an Albies hit 10-15 in 2010 and also the same Albies hit 10-15 in 2018 isn't.

[thewupk]

No question. But even if HR totals are inflated the importance of being somewhere near or above the league average mark hasn't changed. So, having Albies hit 15-20 HR in 2018 vs the same Albies hitting 10-15 in 2010 has equivalence. Having an Albies hit 10-15 in 2010 and also the same Albies hit 10-15 in 2018 isn't.

I agree. My main point was that Albies hitting close to 20 homers would inflate some peoples perception of his.

The average team is going to be hitting around 200 homers per year these days.

[Horsehide Harry]

I agree. My main point was that Albies hitting close to 20 homers would inflate some peoples perception of his.

The average team is going to be hitting around 200 homers per year these days.

I agree. But I think the average will normalize a bit. I expect the next big thing in baseball will be sinkerballers, a resurgence of the split/forkball and any other pitch designed to get the ball on the ground. Launch angle (and arguably the ball construction) plus new park construction have changed the total HR amounts. Organizations will react by trying to counter those trend by emphasizing different trends.

Right now, with pitching, your seeing a lot of emphasis placed on pitch velocity increases, K numbers and BB numbers. Teams want power arms so they can K hitters and live in the confines of a more well defined strike zone. Hitters don't care if they K as long as their OPS is good. Pitchers don't want to BB guys because the occurrence of HR has changed the chance that a BB scores.

The rise of the HR in baseball has also severely devalued the stolen base over the last 25 years. What smart manager is going to let a guy try to steal when he's got several 30-50 HR per year monsters stacked up behind?