Discussion of Braves 2018 Offseason plans

[50PoundHead]

Frazier took about 50% less than he was projected to get. Darvish took about a 25% discount.

Mous was projected at $85M, so a comparable discount to Frazier would be ~$40M. A comparable discount to Darvish would be ~$65M.

Considering Darvish had quite a few suitors and Mous has practically zero suitors, I think it's safe to expect him to fall closer to Frazier's 50% discount than Darvish's 25% discount.

So yeah, 3/40 paid as 6-17-17 might be plausible, and would represent a tremendous bargain for the Braves. Maybe tack on another $20M option with a $2M buyout or something similar.

I might even go 8/20/20 if he'd agree to a three-year deal.

[nsacpi]

I might even go 8/20/20 if he'd agree to a three-year deal.

the concept of backloading runs counter to what we did in the Kemp deal...which was to front load the sunk costs...imo it would have to be a bigger discount than you are suggesting to justify the Change in course

[JxnMissFan]

I might even go 8/20/20 if he'd agree to a three-year deal.

I’m a little skeptical of Mous. But, if you could get him for 60 to 65 million I think he would provide value. I wouldn’t worry about him blocking anyone.
I agree that the Braves are one of only a couple teams that would be a fit for him.

[nsacpi]

I'd be willing to sign Moose to a 5/15/15...i suspect rather strongly he and his agent would not entertain such an offert

[nsacpi]

an alternative is Nunez on a 4/8/8 with year 3 a team option...i suspect that something along those lines would be a competitive offer for Nunez

[JxnMissFan]

I'd be willing to sign Moose to a 5/15/15...i suspect rather strongly he and his agent would not entertain such an offert

I think Mous will sign with a team that will give
Multiple opt outs.

[Hawk]

Is it completely out of the realm of possibility that Liberty might authorize an additional $5-7MM in funds (at the request of McGuirk) to go after Moustakas - provided that he could be secured at a significant discount?

So something like ~10/~15/~15?

[nsacpi]

Is it completely out of the realm of possibility that Liberty might authorize an additional $5-7MM in funds (at the request of McGuirk) to go after Moustakas - provided that he could be secured at a significant discount?

So something like ~10/~15/~15?

that works for me...but somehow I suspect this is not the year ownership will agree to an early breach of the payroll budget

[Enscheff]

Is it completely out of the realm of possibility that Liberty might authorize an additional $5-7MM in funds (at the request of McGuirk) to go after Moustakas - provided that he could be secured at a significant discount?

So something like ~10/~15/~15?

The Braves are at $106M if they don’t pay Kazmir’s deferred money from this year’s payroll. If realize they couldn’t pay Frazier $8M in 2018, that means they probably have to give Mous less than that in 2018.

If we assume they want to put some cash towards Kazmir’s defered money and have an absolute max payroll around $115M, that leaves about $5M-$6M for Mous in 2018.

The contract would have to be something like 5/20/20 to get him to take so little in 2018, and it probably has to be 4 years.

All speculation, but I don’t see any other suitors.

[50PoundHead]

the concept of backloading runs counter to what we did in the Kemp deal...which was to front load the sunk costs...imo it would have to be a bigger discount than you are suggesting to justify the Change in course

I think it's all about the timing. I view Kemp as a special case that was a radical misjudgment by the previous team leadership. The only way I am interested in Moustakas is if he signs a three-year deal and the only way we can accommodate such a deal is to backload it. I understand the problem with backloading because if Moustakas turns into a pumpkin, we're stuck in a similar situation to what we were with Kemp. I just don't see how he could be as limited as Kemp. I'm just throwing out a $16 MM AAV because I think it's going to take a little frosting to get Moustakas to sign a three-year deal. Like JxnMissFan, I'm not sold on Moustakas, but I'm not sold on Riley either.

[zbhargrove]

I was never a huge Mouse fan, but its getting to be where if you can sign him at the discount many think we can.... it'd be pretty tough not to... he's most definitely worth it if he's signing for that large of a discount. At this point, I think you have to sign Mouse or Nunez... the bargains are just too good.

[Jaw]

As far as Mous goes (projected for 2.8 wins in 2018), here are all the teams projected to get less than 2 wins from 3B in 2018 as well as a quick note on their 3B situation:

Tigers 1.7 - rebuilding, young Candelario at 3B
Brewers 1.7 - have cash, but also have a young Travis Shaw at 3B they think is breaking out, need SP
Yankees 1.7 - trying to stay below the luxury tax threshold, have Andujar and Torres for 3B/2B
Marlins 1.6 - no cash, have Prado at 3B
Padres 1.5 - Chase Headley is in the way
Pirates 1.3 - no cash, have options like Harrison, Freese, Moran and SRod already on the roster
Rays 1.3 - no cash, just dumped Longoria for Arroyo
Braves 1.0 - almost no cash in 2018, lots of cash in 2019+, "seeing what they have" in Camargo, and watching Riley's progress
White Sox 0.9 - lots of cash, middle of rebuild, Burger is a college slugger who is likely to move quickly
Royals 0.2 - little cash, just kicking off a major rebuild, liable to do something dumb like sign Hosmer or Mous.

The Braves are literally the only team who isn't rebuilding with a need at 3B and any amount of cash to sign Mous.

Is Riley really worth passing up on a bargain for Mous? At 5/85, no thanks. But what about at ~$50M over 4 years with only $5M-$8M being paid in 2018?

Who else is going to offer Mous anything? Literally...anything?

I understand the desire to see who Camargo really is. I think that would be a reasonable explanation for not signing a FA 3B. But if they are certain that Camargo is not the guy, then I hope the front office is able to look at Riley's production prior to his promotion last year, look at the unsustainable BABIP he posted after the promotion, and conclude that it is far too early to worry about blocking him. I would find any other conclusion troubling.

[thewupk]

I understand the desire to see who Camargo really is. I think that would be a reasonable explanation for not signing a FA 3B. But if they are certain that Camargo is not the guy, then I hope the front office is able to look at Riley's production prior to his promotion last year, look at the unsustainable BABIP he posted after the promotion, and conclude that it is far too early to worry about blocking him. I would find any other conclusion troubling.

Riley is not a stud prospect where blocking him is ill-advisable. IMO the key is at what point would Mous be viable for the team as a discount and anything around 50 million would be ideal, similar to Cain. We all thought he was going to take a big cut but still got 80+. I'd still be shocked if Mous signs for that little but who knows. It seems AA misread the market when making the Kemp deal to front load all his cost for 2018. We could have made a competitive team with what some of these players are signing for. However I think everyone misread the market at this point.

[Super]

Riley is not a stud prospect where blocking him is ill-advisable. IMO the key is at what point would Mous be viable for the team as a discount and anything around 50 million would be ideal, similar to Cain. We all thought he was going to take a big cut but still got 80+. I'd still be shocked if Mous signs for that little but who knows. It seems AA misread the market when making the Kemp deal to front load all his cost for 2018. We could have made a competitive team with what some of these players are signing for. However I think everyone misread the market at this point.

Getting rid of kemp was still most important, IMO. and i think getting rid of him might have been harder had the dodgers known how this market would shake out. people don't want to pay moose $15m per year, they definitely do not want to be paying matt kemp 20+. the dodgers expected to be able to deal him, and haven't found a suitor - and i doubt they will.

[Super]

solidifying 3B would go a long way this season. with some pitching luck/development, i think we could be a legitimately decent team once acuna comes up. i think we are even without moose, but mid-80s (maybe even slightly higher) seems very possible (probable?) with him. i'm down for giving camargo a shot if we can't get moose at a huge discount, tho. but i don't think he'll hit enough to be a guy we want to play every day.


by the way..who's the starting LF?

[zbhargrove]

Yeah, I don't understand worrying about blocking Riley... don't see how you can get too excited about him. Sure, he's got some potential, but his success has more red flags than green flags. Young for his level, but the BABIP and strikeout numbers don't give me huge confidence. I would rather use him as trade bait while his value is likely the highest it will ever be.

[Super]

Yeah, I don't understand worrying about blocking Riley... don't see how you can get too excited about him. Sure, he's got some potential, but his success has more red flags than green flags. Young for his level, but the BABIP and strikeout numbers don't give me huge confidence. I would rather use him as trade bait while his value is likely the highest it will ever be.

it's also just too early to worry about him being blocked. if you can get a 3B you know is decent-to-good on a solid deal, you do it and give riley all the time he needs. unless he's absolutely raking, give him 2 more full years in the minors if you're able to.

[nsacpi]

solidifying 3B would go a long way this season. with some pitching luck/development, i think we could be a legitimately decent team once acuna comes up. i think we are even without moose, but mid-80s (maybe even slightly higher) seems very possible (probable?) with him. i'm down for giving camargo a shot if we can't get moose at a huge discount, tho. but i don't think he'll hit enough to be a guy we want to play every day.


by the way..who's the starting LF?

mix and match will start in LF for a few weeks...then Acuna

[Super]

mix and match will start in LF for a few weeks...then Acuna

with lane and preston tucker? culberson? that will be an absolutely brutal few weeks.

[thewupk]

with lane and preston tucker? culberson? that will be an absolutely brutal few weeks.

Can't be much worse then what we were already getting.