Discussion of Braves 2018 Offseason plans

[Enscheff]

Sawchick pegs the Braves as perhaps the most logical fit for Mous:

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/lets...ike-moustakas/

Quotes from a GM suggesting he won't be able to beat the 3/40 deals given to Bruce or Cozart seems crazy.

The dude is going into his age 29 season and is projected to produce almost 3 wins in 2018. At what price does he make sense for the Braves?

Mous for 3/40 and Cain for 3/50. Some team could add ~6 wins in 2018 for about half the expected cost for those wins. All that without giving out a deal with much downside. When is that worth losing a 4th and 5th round pick? (Braves already lost their 3rd rounder)

This would be an ideal time to have some money to spend...

[Enscheff]

It’s almost getting to the point where a series of moves like this becomes plausible:

- Trade Markakis to the O’s for $5M in salary relief.
- Sign Cain for 3/50 broken down as 10/20/20.
- Sign Mous for 4/55 broken down as 10/15/15/15.

That series of moves puts the payroll right at $120M in 2018 if we don’t assume they are paying Karmir’s deferred $8M this year (nothing I’ve seen suggests they are).

The Braves add 4+ wins in 2018 at a cost of $15M in additional salary, and give up their 4th and 5th round picks. They essentially do the shopping they were going to do next offseason now when there are bargains to be had.

Likely? No. Plausible? Maybe...

[Chico]

Sawchick pegs the Braves as perhaps the most logical fit for Mous:

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/lets...ike-moustakas/

Quotes from a GM suggesting he won't be able to beat the 3/40 deals given to Bruce or Cozart seems crazy.

The dude is going into his age 29 season and is projected to produce almost 3 wins in 2018. At what price does he make sense for the Braves?

Mous for 3/40 and Cain for 3/50. Some team could add ~6 wins in 2018 for about half the expected cost for those wins. All that without giving out a deal with much downside. When is that worth losing a 4th and 5th round pick? (Braves already lost their 3rd rounder)

This would be an ideal time to have some money to spend...

I completely agree here. The idea of going in to next year's free agency ready to spend money when we're going to lose out to any bidding wars sounds like a bad idea.

I would rather spend this offseason and backload contracts to do so If of course the price comes down to where we're getting value signs.

[thewupk]

I completely agree here. The idea of going in to next year's free agency ready to spend money when we're going to lose out to any bidding wars sounds like a bad idea.

I would rather spend this offseason and backload contracts to do so If of course the price comes down to where we're getting value signs.

It's unfortunate that the market seems to be crashing around certain players. The hope is that it continues through next offseason after the big boys are taken off the table.

[Chico]

It's unfortunate that the market seems to be crashing around certain players. The hope is that it continues through next offseason after the big boys are taken off the table.

I think next year it'll go up. What Moose should do is sign a 5 year deal with an opt out option after 3 years. That takes him past the Machado/Donaldson and Arenado/Rendon free agent classes and could make him desirable at 32 if he gets his defense back on track these next few years and doesn't go in to free agency as a bat only guy.

[thewupk]

I think next year it'll go up. What Moose should do is sign a 5 year deal with an opt out option after 3 years. That takes him past the Machado/Donaldson and Arenado/Rendon free agent classes and could make him desirable at 32 if he gets his defense back on track these next few years and doesn't go in to free agency as a bat only guy.

Maybe. It does seem to be somewhat of a trend for certain veteran types that started last year. It's also true that ~30+ year olds are making significantly less compared to the under 30 crowd overall which is a recent trend that's never happened before. At some point the veteran market will bottom out and go back up but some teams are getting bargains right now.

[Russ2dollas]

It’s almost getting to the point where a series of moves like this becomes plausible:

- Trade Markakis to the O’s for $5M in salary relief.
- Sign Cain for 3/50 broken down as 10/20/20.
- Sign Mous for 4/55 broken down as 10/15/15/15.

That series of moves puts the payroll right at $120M in 2018 if we don’t assume they are paying Karmir’s deferred $8M this year (nothing I’ve seen suggests they are).

The Braves add 4+ wins in 2018 at a cost of $15M in additional salary, and give up their 4th and 5th round picks. They essentially do the shopping they were going to do next offseason now when there are bargains to be had.

Likely? No. Plausible? Maybe...

I really like this. I wonder if the picks are going to be an issue we can't get over. We have the international penalties. We already lost the 3rd pick. AA likes HS pitching and it is supposed to be really deep there....but maybe we can't afford those guys late anyway given our restricted pool.

I think if you can get deals like that you have to think really hard about it. Shunt some of the money you can't spend internationally to the major league team or maybe take on a lot of seniors from college baseball to fill the minors and hope one of 25 hits.

I'm not sure we can get 5 million of salary relief.

If Mous is having an issue with the market maybe we can make the numbers look better w/o being better. I'm worried about his age, low bp and knee. AA seems to think Riley is a concern to block. What if he'd take 10/20 with a team option for 25 and another team option for 30? The likelihood that we want to pay him 30 million is less than 1%. But we could potentially get him signed for less years and Mous and the Agent would have something to brag about.

Cain on that deal would just be great IMO. Plus it gives us so much flexibility moving forward. You'd have 3 OF with Acuna who can play CF so the crap hitting back up CF job is not required. The 3 CF options also mean that you could trade Inciarte or Cain if the opportunity presented itself w/o having to find a CF replacement.

That team at 125 million gives you a chance to dream on the playoffs. Playoffs would offest those costs. You also have lots of opportunities to potentially move guys at the deadline if we stink or if the young pitchers are healthy and knocking down the door. McCarthy, Kazmir, Tehran, Folty all give you options of a guy who you could move if they play well and there is a key injury.

Go the NFL model and tack on some funny money to the end so the guys can save face. Give Cain a 25/30/40/50 million options at the end. We won't cash them but they can say total value of X.

[Russ2dollas]

I think next year it'll go up. What Moose should do is sign a 5 year deal with an opt out option after 3 years. That takes him past the Machado/Donaldson and Arenado/Rendon free agent classes and could make him desirable at 32 if he gets his defense back on track these next few years and doesn't go in to free agency as a bat only guy.

you need leverage to get a deal like that. what leverage does he have?

A team should get him on a two year deal with some options. Worst case scenario he's back on the market after Machado and Donaldson are signed.

[Southcack77]

I can see the argument for the backloaded deals, but am still hesitant. You are getting the most value out of them in the first year, which is probably the year you are least equipped to contend.

I feel like the rotation is basically a dice roll at this point, so do you invest in hitting in the hopes that comes out the right way for you? I don't know.

[thewupk]

I can see the argument for the backloaded deals, but am still hesitant. You are getting the most value out of them in the first year, which is probably the year you are least equipped to contend.

I feel like the rotation is basically a dice roll at this point, so do you invest in hitting in the hopes that comes out the right way for you? I don't know.

At some point you have to seriously consider it with a backloaded deal. What is the surplus value of a #4 and #5 round draft pick? How much under their expected value will they sign for? Could be a better deal to do this than to spend prospect capital next year to fill 3B or LF if it's needed.

[Russ2dollas]

I can see the argument for the backloaded deals, but am still hesitant. You are getting the most value out of them in the first year, which is probably the year you are least equipped to contend.

I feel like the rotation is basically a dice roll at this point, so do you invest in hitting in the hopes that comes out the right way for you? I don't know.

I don't think the backloaded deal is too bad if it's 20 million or less. FA has been 7 million per WAR for a while, correct? I don't think it's crazy to think that Cain and Moose are 2 WAR guys for the next couple of years.

And for my plan if it's a team option you can just not do it. If the guy has a 30 million team option for the year and he's not a 4+ WAR guy you don't even consider it before turning it down.

[thewupk]

I don't think the backloaded deal is too bad if it's 20 million or less. FA has been 7 million per WAR for a while, correct? I don't think it's crazy to think that Cain and Moose are 2 WAR guys for the next couple of years.

And for my plan if it's a team option you can just not do it. If the guy has a 30 million team option for the year and he's not a 4+ WAR guy you don't even consider it before turning it down.

It's been closer to 9 million per WAR but I feel that's about to drop when a lot of these players sign so it's hard to say. I feel like you should still put their value at 9 million per WAR in terms of their trade value because that's been the price of business in recent trades. So signing Cain for example at 5-10/20/20 would be a huge discount imo.

[thethe]

Pass on spending money at third base.

[Tapate50]

Pass on spending money at third base.

Camargo has filled out a ton.

First time I saw him he may not have weighed 150.

Color me optimistic on him with the bat.

[thethe]

[Russ2dollas]

Does anyone really think Comargo is the starting 3B on a playoff team? as good as he was in SSS and high BABIP he didn't break 800 OPS.

I'm a bigger believer in Rio Ruiz. Especially if he has a platoon partner.

[Super]

Does anyone really think Comargo is the starting 3B on a playoff team? as good as he was in SSS and high BABIP he didn't break 800 OPS.

I'm a bigger believer in Rio Ruiz. Especially if he has a platoon partner.

i think it's possible, and i'm willing to let him try this year in a year in which we won't truly compete. i want him and ruiz to get all the ABs there.

[thewupk]

Does anyone really think Comargo is the starting 3B on a playoff team? as good as he was in SSS and high BABIP he didn't break 800 OPS.

I'm a bigger believer in Rio Ruiz. Especially if he has a platoon partner.

Really depends how his defense grades out in a full year. If his defense projects him to a league average player, ~2 WAR, then that will be good enough as a role player. Also depends what is going on with the rest of the team. You can't have a team full of league average players and expect to do anything. But you definitely need them at some positions so you don't have black holes that bring your team down.

[50PoundHead]

Does anyone really think Comargo is the starting 3B on a playoff team? as good as he was in SSS and high BABIP he didn't break 800 OPS.

I'm a bigger believer in Rio Ruiz. Especially if he has a platoon partner.

He's a supporting role guy and it all depends on who is surrounding him. If you're expecting him to be a featured player, then no, he's not the starting 3B on a playoff contender. But there are comparable starting 3Bs who have been on playoff teams.

[bravesnumberone]

We need to see what we have in Camargo and Ruiz.