Page 2 of 3 FirstFirst 123 LastLast
Results 21 to 40 of 41

Thread: Early ZiPs Puts Braves at 80 Wins

  1. #21
    It's OVER 5,000!
    Join Date
    Sep 2013
    Location
    Flyover Country
    Posts
    9,509
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    877
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    1,109
    Thanked in
    820 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    Reasonable but three reasons why I think this year is different:

    1) Young positional talent (Acuna/Albies/Freeman/Inciarte/Camargo) is very enticing and could produce a cumulative WAR of 20-25.
    2) Young starting pitching. Newcomb went under the radar last year and came on as he got more comfortable as the season progressed. We all saw Gohara - First legit #1 starter out of the system since Hanson (RIP). We all know how I feel about Fried. Teheran is still a solid MOR picher and Folty can either be an ACE or a bullpen arm. Either way - we have better pitching now than we did in quite some time.
    3) Defense. Corner OF defense aside I think our defense will be stout next season.
    Is there potential, sure, but there was potential last year that didn't nearly pan out as we had hoped. I'm looking at misguided expectations that most of us had with Swanson for starters. The expectation that our corner outfield defense has to be better this year only because it sucked so bad last year is a flawed argument. As far as starting pitching, other than Gohara who truly showed me something, there's a lot to be proven. Our new guys have to show that they can either pitch to weak contact or finish batters off e.g. get to the fifth inning without having thrown 100 pitches. I'm also not convinced that Teheran is a proven middle of the rotation starter. On a plus .500 team he's either a #4 or #5.

    Last year, I learned that optimism not based on proven performance is a mirage. For next season, I'll be from Missouri --"show me."
    Last edited by USMA76; 11-05-2017 at 07:57 PM.

  2. #22
    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    47,433
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    2,704
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    11,384
    Thanked in
    7,533 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by USMA76 View Post
    Is there potential, sure, but there was potential last year that didn't nearly pan out as we had hoped. I'm looking at misguided expectations that most of us had with Swanson for starters. The expectation that our corner outfield defense has to be better this year only because it sucked so bad last year is a flawed argument. As far as starting pitching, other than Gohara who truly showed me something, there's a lot to be proven. Our new guys have to show that they can either pitch to weak contact or finish batters off e.g. get to the fifth inning without having thrown 100 pitches. I'm also not convinced that Teheran is a proven middle of the rotation starter. On a plus .500 team he's either a #4 or #5.

    Last year, I learned that optimism not based on proven performance is a mirage. For next season, I'll be from Missouri --"show me."
    the other thing is usually not all the surprises break in the same direction...usually they cancel each other out
    "I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."

    "I am your retribution."

  3. #23
    Called Up to the Major Leagues
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    2,007
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    932
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    425
    Thanked in
    300 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by jpx7 View Post
    Of course it's more than just Stanton; that was simply one example of a likely change. The real caveat was this: "They [these projections] are a simple snap shot of where teams stand as they enter the offseason."
    Yes, read that and it's still premature. It's understood, however, that there are those with a constant need to feel "engaged," so then this probably means a great deal to them.

  4. #24
    It's OVER 5,000! Jaw's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2016
    Posts
    7,309
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    8,202
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    2,344
    Thanked in
    1,625 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by BeanieAntics View Post
    That was me but looking back it could have been a little conservative. At this point with our team, anything less than 130 would be a disappointment
    In reality the hard part is figuring out how to divide up the WAR projections equitably. Obviously we have to give 10 each to Freeman, Acuna, and Albies, along with at least 35 WAR in the rotation. That doesn't leave much for the rest of the team.

  5. #25
    It's OVER 5,000!
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    26,261
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    34
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    10,000
    Thanked in
    6,108 Posts
    I think I have the Braves at 83 wins with the current roster, so depending on what assumptions ZiPs makes about Goharas and Acuna's playing time this seems logical.

    The Braves get to 85 wins pretty simply: acquire someone like Piscotty, Ozuna or Avi Garcia to play LF, and sign a quality BP arm like Neshek or Hunter. I'm not in favor of adding a guy like Frazier or Mous at 3b, but that upgrade puts them over 85 wins.

  6. #26
    It's OVER 5,000!
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    26,261
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    34
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    10,000
    Thanked in
    6,108 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    Reasonable but three reasons why I think this year is different:

    1) Young positional talent (Acuna/Albies/Freeman/Inciarte/Camargo) is very enticing and could produce a cumulative WAR of 20-25.
    2) Young starting pitching. Newcomb went under the radar last year and came on as he got more comfortable as the season progressed. We all saw Gohara - First legit #1 starter out of the system since Hanson (RIP). We all know how I feel about Fried. Teheran is still a solid MOR picher and Folty can either be an ACE or a bullpen arm. Either way - we have better pitching now than we did in quite some time.
    3) Defense. Corner OF defense aside I think our defense will be stout next season.
    You think this year is different because folks with their head in the clouds always think "this time is different".

  7. #27
    "What is a clvclv"
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Location
    Nebo, NC
    Posts
    9,634
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    5,354
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    2,340
    Thanked in
    1,628 Posts
    Good thing - ZiPs has always been right.
    Has there EVER been a statement and question a certain someone should absolutely never have made and asked publicly more than...

    Kinda pathetic to see yourself as a message board knight in shining armor. How impotent does someone have to be in real life to resort to playing hero on a message board?

  8. The Following User Says Thank You to clvclv For This Useful Post:

    UNCBlue012 (11-06-2017)

  9. #28
    Very Flirtatious, but Doubts What Love Is. jpx7's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    11,903
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    47,596
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    6,441
    Thanked in
    3,830 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Knucksie View Post
    Yes, read that and it's still premature. It's understood, however, that there are those with a constant need to feel "engaged," so then this probably means a great deal to them.
    You click on a thread that warns "early", read the caveat that it's a snapshot merely "of where teams begin the offseason", and yet you feel the need to complain that these predictions are premature ... Like, what do you think you're contributing here?
    "For all his tattooings he was on the whole a clean, comely looking cannibal."

  10. #29
    It's OVER 5,000! CrimsonCowboy's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Location
    Outskirts Of Mobile, Alabama. Roll Tide!!!
    Posts
    14,086
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    488
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    6,288
    Thanked in
    2,775 Posts
    Let me see what the roster will look like and I’ll give you a projection.
    Chopping With The Braves And Rolling With The Tide

  11. #30
    Sabermetric Slut
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Location
    Your Mom's Basement
    Posts
    29,669
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    1,721
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    8,744
    Thanked in
    5,837 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by clvclv View Post
    Good thing - ZiPs has always been right.
    Pretty sure they are a lot closer than those saying the Braves would win over 80 games this year.

  12. The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to thewupk For This Useful Post:

    clvclv (11-06-2017), Managuarantano's Volunteers (11-06-2017)

  13. #31
    Called Up to the Major Leagues
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    2,007
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    932
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    425
    Thanked in
    300 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by jpx7 View Post
    You click on a thread that warns "early", read the caveat that it's a snapshot merely "of where teams begin the offseason", and yet you feel the need to complain that these predictions are premature ... Like, what do you think you're contributing here?
    It was a reaction. A good many of the contributors here are OCD about Tweets, have complete emotional breakdowns over minor trade announcements. Beware of the clusters that are GDT's. So don't point a finger at me for excessive negativity here. OK, this is a reasonable alternative to looking at anime for the nerd squad.

    My reaction to the article was relatively neutral, but you felt the need to get on my junk. 3rd time in about a week and a half? All unprovoked, so not sure what your sudden personal crusade is all about. Jeff asked me to post here (3x, in fact). Before this place went up, I was hardly posting at Scout. If this is such a major problem for you, take it up with him or put me on ignore.

  14. #32
    "What is a clvclv"
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Location
    Nebo, NC
    Posts
    9,634
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    5,354
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    2,340
    Thanked in
    1,628 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    Pretty sure they are a lot closer than those saying the Braves would win over 80 games this year.
    Quite possibly - just never been much of a ZiPs fan.
    Has there EVER been a statement and question a certain someone should absolutely never have made and asked publicly more than...

    Kinda pathetic to see yourself as a message board knight in shining armor. How impotent does someone have to be in real life to resort to playing hero on a message board?

  15. #33
    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    47,433
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    2,704
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    11,384
    Thanked in
    7,533 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by clvclv View Post
    Quite possibly - just never been much of a ZiPs fan.
    Any forecasting system (and not just for baseball) has forecast errors. Its part of the forecasting business. If there wasn't uncertainty, there wouldn't be any need for forecasts.
    "I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."

    "I am your retribution."

  16. The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to nsacpi For This Useful Post:

    JohnAdcox (11-06-2017), Managuarantano's Volunteers (11-06-2017)

  17. #34
    Very Flirtatious, but Doubts What Love Is. jpx7's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    11,903
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    47,596
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    6,441
    Thanked in
    3,830 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Knucksie View Post
    It was a reaction. A good many of the contributors here are OCD about Tweets, have complete emotional breakdowns over minor trade announcements. Beware of the clusters that are GDT's. So don't point a finger at me for excessive negativity here. OK, this is a reasonable alternative to looking at anime for the nerd squad.

    My reaction to the article was relatively neutral, but you felt the need to get on my junk. 3rd time in about a week and a half? All unprovoked, so not sure what your sudden personal crusade is all about. Jeff asked me to post here (3x, in fact). Before this place went up, I was hardly posting at Scout. If this is such a major problem for you, take it up with him or put me on ignore.
    It's nothing personal, I assure you. It just seems like a really odd move to jump into a discussion already recognized/stated to be premature, and bemoan its prematureness. I think(/hope) everyone reading those numbers took them with a big grain-of-salt, and were looking at them more along the lines of what else do the Braves need to do to move the needle this offseason? Probably a necessary distraction from the omnishambles front-office.
    "For all his tattooings he was on the whole a clean, comely looking cannibal."

  18. The Following User Says Thank You to jpx7 For This Useful Post:

    JohnAdcox (11-06-2017)

  19. #35
    Called Up to the Major Leagues
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    2,007
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    932
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    425
    Thanked in
    300 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by jpx7 View Post
    It's nothing personal, I assure you. It just seems like a really odd move to jump into a discussion already recognized/stated to be premature, and bemoan its prematureness. I think(/hope) everyone reading those numbers took them with a big grain-of-salt, and were looking at them more along the lines of what else do the Braves need to do to move the needle this offseason? Probably a necessary distraction from the omnishambles front-office.
    It used to be that Christmas decorations and promotions didn't start in the stores until the day after Thanksgiving or what is now commonly known as Black Friday. Now it happens before Halloween. So, there's another point of reference.

  20. #36
    It's OVER 5,000!
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    26,261
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    34
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    10,000
    Thanked in
    6,108 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by msstate7 View Post
    On the back of swanson’s .776 ops lol

    How do we get that number to 85-86
    Did they project that OPS for Swanson?

  21. #37
    Shift Leader CyYoung31's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    24,244
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    1,032
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    9,990
    Thanked in
    5,481 Posts
    Braves are going to win 90 games next year. Fact.

  22. #38
    Sabermetric Slut
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Location
    Your Mom's Basement
    Posts
    29,669
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    1,721
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    8,744
    Thanked in
    5,837 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Did they project that OPS for Swanson?
    I seriously doubt that since his 2017 zips projections were for a 726 OPS. That won't go up after the year he had.

  23. #39
    Sabermetric Slut
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Location
    Your Mom's Basement
    Posts
    29,669
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    1,721
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    8,744
    Thanked in
    5,837 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by clvclv View Post
    Quite possibly - just never been much of a ZiPs fan.
    It's just a point of reference just like Fangraphs projected win totals that we will get in a few months.

  24. #40
    It's OVER 5,000!
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    26,261
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    34
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    10,000
    Thanked in
    6,108 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by clvclv View Post
    Quite possibly - just never been much of a ZiPs fan.
    It's a much better projection model than whatever you used to project the Braves acquiring Sale for Jenkins, or Odorizzi for MAdams.

Similar Threads

  1. Braves ZiPS
    By Super in forum 2023: Celebrating Our 10th Year Here
    Replies: 7
    Last Post: 12-06-2018, 04:54 PM
  2. Braves ZiPs Projections
    By Enscheff in forum 2023: Celebrating Our 10th Year Here
    Replies: 19
    Last Post: 01-24-2018, 08:27 PM
  3. Replies: 29
    Last Post: 02-16-2015, 01:39 AM
  4. 2015 Braves ZIPS Projections
    By ramadon101 in forum 2023: Celebrating Our 10th Year Here
    Replies: 9
    Last Post: 12-02-2014, 07:42 AM
  5. Braves ZIPS Projections
    By zitothebrave in forum 2023: Celebrating Our 10th Year Here
    Replies: 15
    Last Post: 12-17-2013, 12:41 PM

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •