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Thread: Astros 17 and Braves 20: Core Player Comparisons

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    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
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    Astros 17 and Braves 20: Core Player Comparisons

    Houston's core in 2017 (fWAR in parentheses):

    Keuchel (2.5) age 29
    McCullers (3.0) 23
    Altuve (7.5) 27
    Correa (5.2) 22
    Bregman (3.8) 23
    Springer (4.5) 27

    These are the core players on the Astros. The ones they can count on year-in year-out for 3+ wins. Might not happen every year, but based upon track record this is what can be expected. And some of them obviously contributed much more than 3 wins.

    To supplement this core group, they added high quality veterans like McCann, Verlander, Beltran, Reddick, Gattis. I don't have Marwin Gonzalez in the core group because arguably 2017 represented a career year that was well outside the range you could have predicted form past performance. It doesn't hurt to have someone step up like that.

    For comparison I list below the six guys who I think will be our core players by 2020. Obviously there is uncertainty and we can debate the list. My six are:

    Freeman age 30 in 2020
    Inciarte 29
    Albies 23
    Acuna 22
    Gohara 23
    Soroka 22

    If we want to think about filling the holes, we would want high quality veterans in left, at third and at catcher. Maybe a pitcher too. Even without a boost to payroll, there should be some flexibility to add those kinds of players, considering that Albies, Acuna, Gohara and Soroka will all still be pre-arb in 2020.

    I know someone will chime in that it is silly to compare us in 2020 to the Astros in 2017. A lot of things could potentially go wrong. But I think the raw material might be there.
    Last edited by nsacpi; 11-11-2017 at 03:24 PM.
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    Didn’t someone scoff at us trying to acquire Bregman earlier this year ? Like because he wasn’t good?

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    Also a possibility we don't trade Julio and he rebounds to his 3ish WAR regularity.

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    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    Also a possibility we don't trade Julio and he rebounds to his 3ish WAR regularity.
    There are various possibilities. There are others who with varying likelihoods could end up being core players: Swanson, Folty, Wright, Allard. A couple others.
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    Connoisseur of Minors zitothebrave's Avatar
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    Swanson will be a core player. His power will go up and likely his BABIP. If you bump his BABIP to .310 and his ISO to .110 his slash moves to .243/.323/.353

    And very real chance that BABIP and ISO will rise as well.

    If he could be 80-90 wRC+ hitter his defense will be nice and he'll be a quality player at SS or 2B.
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