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Thread: What's AA gonna do?

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    Quote Originally Posted by 50PoundHead View Post
    I guess my point is that if we were to go into full "sell" mode, we won't get value back for Freeman. I don't see any of HH's suggested Freeman deals as plausible because other teams aren't going to fork that much over for him. Inciarte is a good player, but we may be able to get close to value if we were to trade him. I don't know what Teheran's market is right now, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him gone at the 2018 deadline if the younger guys step up.
    I think there's a bit of a disconnect where people say Freeman is too good and valuable to be traded then turn around and say the Braves couldn't get value for Freeman in a trade.

    Freeman is one of the top 20 offensive players in baseball. And his contract raises his value because, while he's paid well, he's paid reasonably through his prime and is controlled for for 4-5 more years. That has value to a team who is competing now. They can accept the possible performance decline 4-5 years from now for premium performance now. That talent profile is wasted on the Braves since his prime years will be when the rest of the Braves aren't good and when the rest of the Braves become good (theoretically) Freeman will begin an expensive decline.

    Trading him this offseason if the right deal is available is better to me than at the trade deadline because it would free up money to allow the Braves to take on other money and talent from other organizations that are looking to shed payroll. So, for instance you trade Freeman, add the talent acquired from that, then make a trade with the Marlins for Ozuna (similar offensive talent to Freeman but at 1/2 the cost) PLUS other parts the Marlins want to shed like Tazawa at a reduced talent cost. Then, if you are AA, you turn around and move Ozuna for even more talent. Then when Tazawa, Markakis, etc - all the bad contracts that can't be moved this offseason get flushed out after 2018, AA has $50-$75M to spend in the best FA class of the last 20 years, right at the real emergence of the first wave of rebuild talent.

    Taking that approach means 2018 is tanked. But that works as well since the punishment from MLB, whatever it is, will almost certainly affect cash available to spend (fines), loss of some talent that had been stockpiled for the rebuild, and likely exclusion from the International market for a period of time. If the Braves finish with a top 3 draft position in 2018, then that mitigates much of the desired effect of the MLB punishment.

    I don't think you can take a linear approach to rebuilding, saying I've got my core (or base) so that's covered, now I have to add to that, etc over a period of five years. That approach doesn't account for the positive or negative associated with those counted on to be the "base." Players get older, play better, play worse, get injured, have personal issues, etc. Keeping Freeman, Inciarte, Teheran, etc (essentially all players who will either be too old or out of control by the time the team can expect an influx of young talent waves in concentration levels great enough to reasonably expect the team being good enough to begin a window of contention) creates the illusion of the team being better than it really is for the casual fan and provides some fan satisfaction achieved from individual performance, but really does very little to advance team goals which is to win a lot of games, pennants, WS.

    AA is in a perfect situation to finish the rebuild in the right way given all the offseason negative publicity. He can say, with all the bad that's happened, we think we need to slow things down a bit, re-align, and move forward building the team that Atlanta needs.

    As a comparison, look at Dale Murphy. He was one of the most valuable players in baseball and was kept through the majority of the late 80's Braves rebuild to keep packing in those 5,000 fans each night at FC. They trotted him out there until his skills fell off at 32 then tried to trade him and essentially got nothing back. Murphy wasn't around for the Braves success because the timing of his career was off from the timing of the Braves strategy. What if the Braves had traded him for an A ball Barry Bonds?

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    The White Sox have gotten very good returns on guys like Eaton, Sale and Quintana. This suggests that there would be a strong market for Freeman if we made him available.
    Exactly. I'm standing far back and looking at the whole picture. If you are standing up close and looking at 2018, maybe it doesn't make sense. But the Braves aren't winning anything in 2018.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Heyward View Post
    Braves are pretty close to contending in a few years if AA can make the right moves.

    Problem with trading Freeman is we'll never get proper value for him so it makes no sense.
    You can't assume that in a few years that the Freeman of today will still be playing. It's almost certain that he won't be because he will be past his players prime, on the wrong side of thirty. He probably will still be good no question. But how much value does a $22M per year "good" 1B bring to the team as opposed to the value that a great 1B could bring in trade today to a rebuilding team?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Horsehide Harry View Post
    Exactly. I'm standing far back and looking at the whole picture. If you are standing up close and looking at 2018, maybe it doesn't make sense. But the Braves aren't winning anything in 2018.

    How many times is this reclamation project going to be pushed back? I was told from the experts here that the Braves would be conpetitive in 2017. How did that go? Then it was that they were gearing up for 2018. Now it seems that isn’t the case either. I was also told that Hart and Coppy were magnificent and the Braves were on the cusp of a breakthrough.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    We have a slew of young pitching on the way and severbal of those pitchers should arrive this year. We also have a pretty solid core of young positional players with Freeman, Acuna, Albies, Swanson, and Ender and possibly more on the way with Riley, Jackson, Maitan, and Pache. And your solution is to blow that up....


    Again, I say: Worst. Idea. Ever.
    Not blow it up. Finish it. The previous FO approach to the rebuild was to sketch in the outline and daub on a little color here and there. You can tell what the picture is supposed to be but that's all.

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    If the Blue Jays offered me Vlad Jr for Freeman I'd do it. Or if the Red Sox offered Devers plus Groome. I'd also do the two trade proposals Harry put out with the Astros and Yankees. That's the kind of price I'd be looking for. I wouldn't shop him because I think that devalues the player. We're better off playing hard to get, but being willing to listen. I think those kinds of scenarios are fun to talk about but far-fetched. They're still far-fetched at the trade deadline but slightly more plausible if the team is doing poorly.

    I also think AA is a bit more likely to do this kind of deal than Hartcoppy. Still not a high probability, but I suspect he has more of an open mind about something like that.
    Last edited by nsacpi; 11-18-2017 at 11:53 AM.
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    I might add that my willingness to trade someone like Freeman is rooted in what I call the "value proposition." Unlike Harry, however, I do not view 2018 as a lost cause to be written off. I don't discount it at all. So while I'm willing to trade Freeman or Inciarte, this willingness is based upon the return being high enough independent of any sort of discount being applied to 2018. Moreover, since I don't view 2018 as a lost cause I would also be happy to see trades and acquisitions that help us this year, again with getting good value being the bottom line.

    My guess is AA comes in with a similar mindset. I would be surprised if his activity this off-season results in the 2018 team being blown up. I'd be very surprised. But come mid-season he is less likely than Hartcoppy (remember the famous right arm quote) to be wedded to the idea that any player is off limits when it comes to trades.

    In looking at the current situation, AA probably realizes that time is his friend. In particular, time will allow maturation of the key young guys--Albies, Acuna, Gohara and Soroka in particular. It also will allow some dead weight contracts (most notably Kemp) to come off the books. We are unlikely to be able to move anything but a small fraction of that contract. So it will cost us through 2019. 2020 really looks like our best shot at emerging as a genuine contender. And AA will not have to be a genius to see that. With respect to Freeman, Inciarte and Teheran time does work against us. But overall the effect of time on our chances of winning is positive over the next 3-5 years. Beyond 5 years it starts working against us as the young talent gets expensive (or alternatively less productive per dollar spent).
    Last edited by nsacpi; 11-18-2017 at 12:28 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Horsehide Harry View Post
    Not blow it up. Finish it. The previous FO approach to the rebuild was to sketch in the outline and daub on a little color here and there. You can tell what the picture is supposed to be but that's all.
    Trading away our 2 best positional players (both still relatively young) and one of better young pitchers is absolutely blowing it up.

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    The rebuild happened. It’s over. The Braves are going to open their window as wide as they can for the next 4-5 years. The only question remaining is when they decide to “go for it”.

    They might not win, but they aren’t going to blow it up again without even trying. Win or lose, this is the collection of talent the Braves are going to push forward with.

    It’s simply unrealistic to expect, or even suggest, the Braves to embark on another rebuild.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    The rebuild happened. It’s over. The Braves are going to open their window as wide as they can for the next 4-5 years. The only question remaining is when they decide to “go for it”.

    They might not win, but they aren’t going to blow it up again without even trying. Win or lose, this is the collection of talent the Braves are going to push forward with.

    It’s simply unrealistic to expect, or even suggest, the Braves to embark on another rebuild.
    I'm not suggesting embarking on another rebuild, just a continuation of the one they started and tried to shorten.

    It's probably right that they will essentially play heavy bets over the next few years and at some point push everything all in. They shouldn't.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    I might add that my willingness to trade someone like Freeman is rooted in what I call the "value proposition." Unlike Harry, however, I do not view 2018 as a lost cause to be written off. I don't discount it at all. So while I'm willing to trade Freeman or Inciarte, this willingness is based upon the return being high enough independent of any sort of discount being applied to 2018. Moreover, since I don't view 2018 as a lost cause I would also be happy to see trades and acquisitions that help us this year, again with getting good value being the bottom line.

    My guess is AA comes in with a similar mindset. I would be surprised if his activity this off-season results in the 2018 team being blown up. I'd be very surprised. But come mid-season he is less likely than Hartcoppy (remember the famous right arm quote) to be wedded to the idea that any player is off limits when it comes to trades.

    In looking at the current situation, AA probably realizes that time is his friend. In particular, time will allow maturation of the key young guys--Albies, Acuna, Gohara and Soroka in particular. It also will allow some dead weight contracts (most notably Kemp) to come off the books. We are unlikely to be able to move anything but a small fraction of that contract. So it will cost us through 2019. 2020 really looks like our best shot at emerging as a genuine contender. And AA will not have to be a genius to see that. With respect to Freeman, Inciarte and Teheran time does work against us. But overall the effect of time on our chances of winning is positive over the next 3-5 years. Beyond 5 years it starts working against us as the young talent gets expensive (or alternatively less productive per dollar spent).
    I think everyone agrees with most of this to a point, but the return will have to be so mind-boggling it makes the Shelby Miller deal look pedestrian - and the teams who might be willing to make a move for Freeman (or even Ender) simply aren't likely to go that far.

    Houston's not likely to make a blockbuster for Freeman and take the chance of ruining their chemistry for the upgrade Freddie might provide over Gurriel. If Bregman ever actually was available in the right deal, he certainly isn't now. If Ender nets you Tucker and Moran, sure you do it. Boston might make a play for Freeman, but is Groome, Chavis, and Travis enough? Not for me. The Cardinals might be interested, but could you get Reyes, Kelly, and O'Neill for him? Would the Rockies part with Pint, McMahon, and Tapia for Freddie? I doubt it. Toronto's not going to give up Vlad Jr., Alford, and Pentecost to upgrade over Smoak - especially when they're lined up to replace Donaldson with Vlad Jr.. Would the Rangers move Gallo to LF and give up Taveras, Willie Calhoun, and another piece (Bubba Thompson, maybe?) for Freddie? Kinda doubt that one too. The Yankees aren't going to give up major pieces for Freeman because they believe in Bird. Even if they would, I can't see them trading Bird, Florial, and Andujar for him.

    All these "pie-in-the-sky" asking prices many of us throw out there are likely what it's going to take to pry guys like Freddie and Ender away - even away from AA. I don't think most people are as against pushing things back another year or even two if you can acquire that much more "can't-miss" talent, but I think most people agree that while these asks are terribly high, trading guys in their prime who can still be cornerstones when you think your window's opening within a year or two can't happen if you don't get that. Everybody agreed the Indians overpaid for Miller when they got him. Everyone agreed the Cubs overpaid when they got Chapman. Everyone agreed the Astros overpaid when they got Verlander.

    Freeman and Inciarte are absolutely players who will make the same kind of impact for true contenders - if other teams aren't willing to meet those types of returns, you just don't trade them.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Horsehide Harry View Post
    I'm not suggesting embarking on another rebuild, just a continuation of the one they started and tried to shorten.

    It's probably right that they will essentially play heavy bets over the next few years and at some point push everything all in. They shouldn't.
    One of the premises you use for trading Freeman is that his value will be wasted during his prime years. Maybe that is true, maybe we can open our window earlier than expected. Either way, its almost impossible to complete a rebuild without having one or two guys whose value gets wasted in down years. Trading Freeman, no matter what way you look at it, will kick the competitive can down the line to some degree. With all that being said, I would do it if the right deal appeared. If Toronto offers a package with Vlad Jr, obviously you have to consider that. If you can get some crazy package from a contender, of course you do it. But that is a different thing than actively shopping a guy to avoid wasting a couple of his prime years

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    Given the prospect losses - particularly Maitan and Severino - I'd imagine it's at least somewhat more likely AA entertains bidding seriously on Moose and/or Frazier at this point. If he's of the opinion that Riley may have to move because of his defense, there's obviously not a long-term "answer" in the system for a veteran to block anymore.

    Yes, the price to land Moose will be steep, but it will be less than the price it'll take and there will be fewer teams to compete against than to try to land Donaldson next winter.

    I'm not expecting the splashy signing any more than anyone else is, but you can make a more convincing argument for it at this point.
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    Quote Originally Posted by BeanieAntics View Post
    One of the premises you use for trading Freeman is that his value will be wasted during his prime years. Maybe that is true, maybe we can open our window earlier than expected. Either way, its almost impossible to complete a rebuild without having one or two guys whose value gets wasted in down years. Trading Freeman, no matter what way you look at it, will kick the competitive can down the line to some degree. With all that being said, I would do it if the right deal appeared. If Toronto offers a package with Vlad Jr, obviously you have to consider that. If you can get some crazy package from a contender, of course you do it. But that is a different thing than actively shopping a guy to avoid wasting a couple of his prime years
    I think this is a good point. I'm a Bulls fan, even though I hate their joke of a front-office. The Chicago front-office (rightly, but a year too late) decided it was time to blow up and rebuild; they then worried about "wasting" (re: paying) Jimmy Butler through his prime years (even though he, by most accounts, wanted to stay in Chicago—though not necessarily under Coach Hoiberg). Indeed, they were so worried—once they made the firm decision to change direction—about "wasting" Butler's prime years that they took a below-value (or well below-value, depending upon who you ask) deal to move him because they felt boxed into that decision.

    Draft picks mean more, and matter faster, in the NBA; and one really good player can more easily mean the difference between top-three and back-five of the lottery in the NBA draft. In other words, there were more legitimate reasons to trade Butler in order to fully rebuild. But I do think it's an instructive anecdote when thinking about Freeman and the dangerous anxiety of "wasting" prime years.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Horsehide Harry View Post
    I think there's a bit of a disconnect where people say Freeman is too good and valuable to be traded then turn around and say the Braves couldn't get value for Freeman in a trade.

    Freeman is one of the top 20 offensive players in baseball. And his contract raises his value because, while he's paid well, he's paid reasonably through his prime and is controlled for for 4-5 more years. That has value to a team who is competing now. They can accept the possible performance decline 4-5 years from now for premium performance now. That talent profile is wasted on the Braves since his prime years will be when the rest of the Braves aren't good and when the rest of the Braves become good (theoretically) Freeman will begin an expensive decline.

    Trading him this offseason if the right deal is available is better to me than at the trade deadline because it would free up money to allow the Braves to take on other money and talent from other organizations that are looking to shed payroll. So, for instance you trade Freeman, add the talent acquired from that, then make a trade with the Marlins for Ozuna (similar offensive talent to Freeman but at 1/2 the cost) PLUS other parts the Marlins want to shed like Tazawa at a reduced talent cost. Then, if you are AA, you turn around and move Ozuna for even more talent. Then when Tazawa, Markakis, etc - all the bad contracts that can't be moved this offseason get flushed out after 2018, AA has $50-$75M to spend in the best FA class of the last 20 years, right at the real emergence of the first wave of rebuild talent.

    Taking that approach means 2018 is tanked. But that works as well since the punishment from MLB, whatever it is, will almost certainly affect cash available to spend (fines), loss of some talent that had been stockpiled for the rebuild, and likely exclusion from the International market for a period of time. If the Braves finish with a top 3 draft position in 2018, then that mitigates much of the desired effect of the MLB punishment.

    I don't think you can take a linear approach to rebuilding, saying I've got my core (or base) so that's covered, now I have to add to that, etc over a period of five years. That approach doesn't account for the positive or negative associated with those counted on to be the "base." Players get older, play better, play worse, get injured, have personal issues, etc. Keeping Freeman, Inciarte, Teheran, etc (essentially all players who will either be too old or out of control by the time the team can expect an influx of young talent waves in concentration levels great enough to reasonably expect the team being good enough to begin a window of contention) creates the illusion of the team being better than it really is for the casual fan and provides some fan satisfaction achieved from individual performance, but really does very little to advance team goals which is to win a lot of games, pennants, WS.

    AA is in a perfect situation to finish the rebuild in the right way given all the offseason negative publicity. He can say, with all the bad that's happened, we think we need to slow things down a bit, re-align, and move forward building the team that Atlanta needs.

    As a comparison, look at Dale Murphy. He was one of the most valuable players in baseball and was kept through the majority of the late 80's Braves rebuild to keep packing in those 5,000 fans each night at FC. They trotted him out there until his skills fell off at 32 then tried to trade him and essentially got nothing back. Murphy wasn't around for the Braves success because the timing of his career was off from the timing of the Braves strategy. What if the Braves had traded him for an A ball Barry Bonds?
    I guess my point is that I don't think we will get value for Freeman. No one is too good to not be traded. In the case of the White Sox trades, each of those deals was a case of a very motivated buyer with a distinct need that drove them to the trade. One can point out several teams that would be improved with Freeman (Yanks, Astros), but would the upgrade Freeman would provide be worth the prospect cost. Astros have A.J. Reed and Greg Bird isn't chopped liver for the Yankees.

    There's a PR aspect to this as well. If Anthropoulos trims the sails, revenue will take a big hit and with the minor league pipeline taking a big hit, there's less waiting in the offing. It's a bad situation to be in. We may well be threatening the 1962 Mets in 2018.
    Last edited by 50PoundHead; 11-21-2017 at 09:27 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by 50PoundHead View Post
    I guess my point is that I don't think we will get value for Freeman. No one is too good to not be traded. In the case of the White Sox trades, each of those deals was a case of a very motivated buyer with a distinct need that drove them to the trade. One can point out several teams that would be improved with Freeman (Yanks, Astros), but would the upgrade Freeman would provide be worth the prospect cost. Astros have A.J. Reed and Greg Bird isn't chopped liver for the Yankees.

    There's a PR aspect to this as well. If Anthropoulos trims the sails, revenue will take a big hit and with the minor league pipeline taking a big hit, there's less waiting in the offing. It's a bad situation to be in. We may well be threatening the 1962 Mets in 2018.
    I certainly don't advocate giving Freeman away. However, if you look at the major trades that have happened over the last couple of years, I think Freeman would likely be the most valuable player traded. Sure Stanton is flashier and maybe a better overall player BUT his contract is a huge negative for any team. None of the players the WS traded really have Freeman's value with the possible exception of Sale. There are teams (multiple) who would want and need him which means it would be a sellers market, especially given that the Braves don't have to trade him.

    As for concern over the 2018 record, I understand but just don't see it as that relevant UNLESS nothing is done post 2018 to make the team competitive. Firstly, I think there is an odd point of view in baseball that 100 losses is somehow significantly worse than 98 losses - I think some of the Braves dinosaurs actually fell victim to this over the last couple of years. In reality, it's just a number that signifies nothing in reality. 85 losses means something. It means that the team was 4 losses away from a .500 record and probably 10 losses away from scaring the playoffs. The Braves had 90 losses, 93 the year before and 95 the year before that and 83 the year before that. They are realistically 3-4 years into what should have been a 5 year rebuild but has likely turned into a 6 or 7 year rebuild due to a desire to avoid a 5 year rebuild.

    Incremental improvement year after year only means anything if enough talent coalesces at the right times to supplement what is there to make a real difference. And the Braves don't have that. They have enough ready to go to provide the illusion of progress in 2018 but not a reality. Freeman/Adams combined at 1B will not be supplanted by Freeman alone in 2018. At best you have to hope for parity. You absolutely can't count on the catching situation to be as good as it was in 2017. 3B is a hole. Everyone seems to agree that throwing around what little cash the Braves will have to fill that hole with the options available would be short sighted and counter productive and not impactful enough to make any difference. Inciarte played well but likely the best hope in 2018 is parity with 2017. Kemp and Markakis will decline, no question. So, that leaves your hopes for offensive improvement on the shoulders of a full year of Albies, vast improvement from Swanson and the hopeful production from Acuna with a possible dash of Riley. Then you've got the pitching staff with no real top of the order guys, all full of #3, 4 and 5 guys.

    To be relevant they either need to lay out some cash to fill some holes (unlikely given the expected budget and some of the foolish contracts that the team is saddled with) OR make some serious trades which will cost serious minor league talent (a currency no longer in clear abundance).

    Or, they could push the goal back a year or two, trade valuable assets who are good today but will either not be around in two years OR be in a likely age related decline phase, then use the cash saved to participate if the FA market.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Horsehide Harry View Post
    Incremental improvement year after year only means anything if enough talent coalesces at the right times to supplement what is there to make a real difference. And the Braves don't have that.
    I guess "real difference" is somewhat in the eye of the beholder. But I see us on a path where we win about 80 games in 2018, 80-85 in 2019 and 85-90 in 2020-2021. Those are the remaining years of Freeman's contract. Nothing is guaranteed of course. Lady Luck could smile on us in 2018 and frown on us in a subsequent season. But decisions have to be made on the best understanding we can generate of the probability distribution of outcomes.
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    I guess "real difference" is somewhat in the eye of the beholder. But I see us on a path where we win about 80 games in 2018, 80-85 in 2019 and 85-90 in 2020-2021. Those are the remaining years of Freeman's contract. Nothing is guaranteed of course. Lady Luck could smile on us in 2018 and frown on us in a subsequent season. But decisions have to be made on the best understanding we can generate of the probability distribution of outcomes.
    We were a bad team with Freddie, Ender and Julio. They are the only real guys we have. I just don’t see us realistically competing for a WS in their primes. IF we could get a massive return with guys that match our young guys windows...I do it. That’s a big “if”, but I leave it on the table.

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    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheBravos View Post
    We were a bad team with Freddie, Ender and Julio. They are the only real guys we have. I just don’t see us realistically competing for a WS in their primes. IF we could get a massive return with guys that match our young guys windows...I do it. That’s a big “if”, but I leave it on the table.
    Believe it or not when you crunch the numbers you get the path of expected wins from 2018 to 2021 I described. Some of it comes from the young talent coming into the major league team and maturing. Some of it comes from a presumably more efficient allocation of the money currently tied up in certain contracts, mostly the one to Kemp.

    But as I have often stated, if we get an outstanding offer for any player I do the deal. In the absence of such offer(s) I'm happy to see the team gradually improve over the next four years as I expect it to. I do not perceive an urgent need to move Freeman or any particular player.
    "I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."

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