Past AFL MVPs....

[rico43]

The award is not necessarily a stepping stone to greatness. Suprising how many of these never panned out as MLB players (MLB seasons bracketed)

2002 Ken Harvey Kansas City Royals First baseman (2001, 03-05, all-star in '04)
2003 Jason Dubois Chicago Cubs Outfielder (04-05)
2004 Chris Shelton Detroit Tigers Designated hitter (first baseman) (04-06, 08-09)
2005 Eric Duncan New York Yankees Third baseman (none, minors until 2012, M-Brave in 2010)
2006 Chip Cannon Toronto Blue Jays First baseman (none, last played in '09)
2007 Sam Fuld Chicago Cubs Outfielder (07, 09-15, Cubs traded in 2010)
2008 Tommy Hanson Atlanta Braves Pitcher (09-13, passed away November 9, 2015)
2009 Grant Desme Oakland Athletics Outfielder (none, last played in '09)
2010 Dustin Ackley Seattle Mariners Second baseman (2011-16)
2011 Nolan Arenado Colorado Rockies Third baseman (2013-present, 3-time all-star)
2012 Chris McGuiness Texas Rangers First baseman (2013, last played '15)
2013 Kris Bryant Chicago Cubs Third baseman (2013-present, two-time all-star)
2014 Greg Bird New York Yankees First baseman (2015-present)
2015 Adam Engel Chicago White Sox Outfielder (2017)
2016 Gleyber Torres New York Yankees Shortstop (TBA)
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2017 Ronald Acuña Atlanta Braves Outfielder (TBA)

[CyYoung31]

Ken Harvey...

[nsacpi]

The more meaningful comps for Acuna are past #1 prospects. I looked at the #1s from BA's list from 2000 to 2010. As a group they averaged 18 f-WAR during their pre-free agency years.

What we might expect from Acuna in the way of wins during those six years: 2, 2, 3, 3, 4, 4

He might do better, he might do worse. But that is the average of what I think is the group that provides the best comps.

[nsacpi]

On a related note, I think a case can be made that Albies is more valuable than Acuna at this point. The argument centers around how a top prospect's expected value changes with his performance in his first year in the majors.

Say you start out with a prospect that you expect to put up the 2, 2, 3, 3, 4, 4 sequence I mentioned in the previous post. But he puts up a 4 in his first year. Has his value increased? On the one hand, you have lost one of his pre-free agency seasons. But your projections for the remaining 5 seasons have gone up to something like a 4, 4, 5, 5, 5 based on his first year. That more than offsets the loss of that first season as far as expected value goes.

In the case of Albies he put up a 1.9 in 57 games. He still has six full pre-free agency years left. He won't be a super 2. A conservative projection for him over the next six years might look like this: 3, 3, 4, 4, 4, 4. Better than the average #1 prospect.

[Tapate50]

Kids got a lot of room to fill out. He looks like a child out there. I mean he is I guess, but he’s got room to grow.

[zitothebrave]

I think the other consideration is age. Arenado was 20, Bryant was 21.

On the flip side McGuiness was 24, Desme was 23, Ackley was 22, Cannon was 25, Fuld was 26, Shelton was 24, Harvey was 24, Dubois was 24.

Only one who was young (read 22 or younger) and not good at all was Duncan, and he was just impossibly hot that AFL. I think the majority of it can be explained because of age, the more experienced the person is going into AFL the more likely they are to dominate the less experienced players.

Hanson I didn't include because he's a pitcher and Hanson was pretty great when he started his career, and then injuries took over. Which is the risk of pitchers.

[Enscheff]

Acuna is great, and he was great regardless of what he did in the AFL. It’s a notorious hitters league with typically weak pitching for the level of overall competition.

Acuna is tracking to be a star, and it has nothing to do with 80 PAs in the AFL.

Folks who put much stock in AFL numbers are fools. If you see someone use those stats as justification for a player being “ready”, you can go ahead and dismiss their hot take.

[MadduxFanII]

You just made up "Chip Cannon."

[zitothebrave]

You just made up "Chip Cannon."

Sounds like a basketball game giveaway gimmick.

[jpx7]

Sounds like a basketball game giveaway gimmick.

It sounds like what Chip calls his coke straw.

[thethe]

I think the other consideration is age. Arenado was 20, Bryant was 21.

On the flip side McGuiness was 24, Desme was 23, Ackley was 22, Cannon was 25, Fuld was 26, Shelton was 24, Harvey was 24, Dubois was 24.

Only one who was young (read 22 or younger) and not good at all was Duncan, and he was just impossibly hot that AFL. I think the majority of it can be explained because of age, the more experienced the person is going into AFL the more likely they are to dominate the less experienced players.

Hanson I didn't include because he's a pitcher and Hanson was pretty great when he started his career, and then injuries took over. Which is the risk of pitchers.

Yup...age matters and it's why I'm buying into riley being an everyday major leaguer

[CyYoung31]

It sounds like what Chip calls his coke straw.

God dammit dude. You made everyone stare at me at this restaurant for laughing so hard.

[Enscheff]

Yup...age matters and it's why I'm buying into riley being an everyday major leaguer

Lol Riley could have posted a .700 OPS and you would have said, “The AFL doesn’t means anything, especially for players so young. Riley is still going to be an everyday guy”.

I’m sure you still think AJax is a Top 100 guy as well haha.

You’re buying because you buy anything with a tomahawk across its chest.