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Thread: Ineresting Note About Pitching Ceilings...

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    Ineresting Note About Pitching Ceilings...

    Several complainers have whined about what is in their opinion a lack of high-ceiling arms in our system.

    Pretty funny when you compare it with other organizations' BA Top 10 reports...the question follows at the end...

    Braves
    Gohara (MLB level) - "front-line starter"
    Soroka - (AA level) - "mid-rotation starter"
    Wright (handful of IP in Hi-A) - "top-of-the-rotation starter"
    Anderson (Lo-A) - "#2 or #3 starter"
    Allard (AA) - #4 starter"
    Fried (MLB level/TJ already) - "better pure stuff than Soroka or Allard"

    Yankees
    Sheffield (AA) - "#3 starter"
    Adams (AAA) - "mid-rotation starter"
    Abreu (Hi-A) - "#2 starter"
    Guzman (Rookie) - "mid-rotation starter"
    Medina (Rookie) - "top-flight starter"
    Acevedo (AA) - "mid-rotation starter"

    Marlins
    Rogers (hasn't pitched yet) - no projection
    Garrett (Lo-A/TJ already) - "#2 or #3 starter"
    Peters (AA) - "#4 starter"
    Cabrera (Rookie) - no projection
    Gonzalez (Hi-A) - "high-leverage reliever"

    Mutts
    Peterson (Rookie) - "#3 or #4 starter"
    Dunn (Hi-A) - "#3 or #4 starter"
    Szapucki (Lo-A/TJ already) - "#3 starter"
    Molina (AA) - "#4 starter"
    Flexen (AAA/TJ already) - "#5 starter or reliever"

    Phillies
    Sanchez (Hi-A) - "front-line starter"
    Medina (Lo-A) - "mid-rotation starter"
    Romero (Hi-A) - "#3 or #4 starter"
    Kilome (AA) - "#3 or #4 starter"

    Gnats
    Fedde (AA/TJ already) - "mid to back-of-the-rotation starter"
    Romero (Rookie) - "#3 starter"
    Crowe (hasn't pitched yet/TJ already) - "#4 or #5 starter"

    Cardinals
    Reyes (AAA/TJ already) - "front of the rotation starter"
    Flaherty (MLB level) - "mid-rotation starter"
    Alcantara (AAA) - no projection/"reliever"
    Hicks (Hi-A) - "mid rotation pitcher"
    Hudson (AAA) - "mid-rotation starter/reliever"
    Helsley (AAA) - "reliever"

    Brewers
    Woodruff (MLB level) - "#3 starter"
    Burnes (AA) - "#3 or #4 starter"
    Ortiz (AA) - "#2 starter"

    Reds
    Greene (hasn't pitched yet) - no projection
    Mahle (MLB level) - "#4 starter"
    Santillian (Lo-A) - no projection/"reliever"
    Gutierrez (Hi-A) - no projection

    Cubs
    Alzolay (AA) - "#4 starter"
    Albertos (Rookie) - no projection
    Lange (hasn't pitched yet) - "closer"
    De La Cruz (Lo-A) - "#2 or #3 starter"
    Little (hasn't pitched yet) - "mid-rotation starter"
    Hatch (Hi-A) - "#3 or #4 starter"
    Tseng (AA) - "back-of rotation sterter"

    Pirates
    Keller (AA) - "mid to top-of the rotation starter"
    Baz (Rookie) - "front of the rotation starter"
    Escobar (Lo-A) - "power reliever"
    Kingham (AAA/TJ already) - no projection
    Hearn (Hi-A) - "reliever"

    Dodgers
    Buehler (MLB level/TJ already) - "top of the rotation starter"
    White (AA/TJ already) - "#2 or #3 starter"
    Alvarez (AA) - "closer"
    Santana (AA) - "a chance to start"

    Giants
    Beede (AAA) - "#4 starter"
    Williams (Hi-A) - "mid-rotation starter"
    Suarez (AAA) - "back of the rotation starter"

    Padres
    Gore (Rookie) - no projection/TOR
    Baez (Lo-A) - "front of the rotation starter"
    Quantrill (AA/TJ already) - "middle to front of the rotation starter"
    Morejon (Lo-A) - no projection
    Espinoza (to miss second consecutive season in 2018) - "front of the rotation stuff"
    Allen (Hi-A) - "mid-rotation starter"
    Lucchesi (AA) - "#4 starter"

    D-Backs
    Duplantier (Hi-A) - "front of the rotation starter"
    Banda (MLB level) - "mid-rotation starter"
    Clarke (AAA) - "back-end starter"
    Tabor (Rookie) - "#3 starter"

    Rockies
    Pint (Lo-A) - "Scouts remain bullish on Pint because of his premium stuff and clean delivery, but his lack of strike-throwing ability is alarming."
    Lambert (Hi-A) "mid-to-back of the rotation starter"
    Castellani (AA) - "mid-to-back of the rotation starter"
    Almonte (AAA) - "late relief"




    Exactly where are all these teams that are developing so many "Aces"???
    Waters is intersting too. Would prefer a guy that projects to more power though.

    If they don't make additions they can expect the same 3-5 win improvement they saw last year. That makes the Braves a 75-78 win team.

    The FO that needlessly promoted him early knew what they were doing and are paid to do this. We aren't, so we can't know more than them. Correction....they used to be paid to do this...

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    That’s encouraging. Only the Braves had 2 or more in the top of the rotation starter category. Hopefully we can get one more out of Soroka, Allard, Anderson, or Fried.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    I count 12 guys you listed as TOR guys. The Braves have 2, as do several other teams.

    Exactly how many TOR guys should there be?

    What is the point of this post?
    I think it's a question of ceiling, not whether a guy will actually become a TOR pitcher. I don't think anyone is projecting all 12 of those guys with TOR ceilings to become aces.

    The point is that we have people whining that we don't have enough guys with the potential to develop into TOR starters compared to other team. The reality is that we do. Just a question on whether our larger number of lottery tickets will pay off.

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    Quote Originally Posted by striker42 View Post
    I think it's a question of ceiling, not whether a guy will actually become a TOR pitcher. I don't think anyone is projecting all 12 of those guys with TOR ceilings to become aces.

    The point is that we have people whining that we don't have enough guys with the potential to develop into TOR starters compared to other team. The reality is that we do. Just a question on whether our larger number of lottery tickets will pay off.
    When a team acquires 100 pitching prospects over the course of 3 years they should have a few TOR guys. The Braves have the most pitching prospects of any caliber. They have the most back end guys, the most mid rotation guys, and the most BP guys. It stands to reason they should have at least as many TOR guys as other teams.

    I'm still not sure what the point of this post is.

    I think the criticism is they have too many pitching prospects in relation to position prospect, regardless of their caliber.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    When a team acquires 100 pitching prospects over the course of 3 years they should have a few TOR guys. The Braves have the most pitching prospects of any caliber. They have the most back end guys, the most mid rotation guys, and the most BP guys. It stands to reason they should have at least as many TOR guys as other teams.

    I'm still not sure what the point of this post is.

    I think the criticism is they have too many pitching prospects in relation to position prospect, regardless of their caliber.
    We have a winner. Now that Maitian is gone and Swanson promoted (who they rushed) who are the best position prospects the previous regime brought in? Pache and Riley? They do get props for bringing in Ender but it's obvious that the previous regime seemed to go all in on pitching and IMO it's a glaring mistake.

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    I think as long as Bobby is there, even as someone sitting in the room just breathing. We will lean pitching. It is as if we don’t want to step on a legends toes by going against what he firmly believes. I will always be a pozzi. But I will never have any faith in a front office again until these relics are banished for good.
    Coppy

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    Fried has better pure stuff than Soroka or Allard? 😦

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    Quote Originally Posted by brian22 View Post
    Fried has better pure stuff than Soroka or Allard? ��
    Yes. Doesn't mean he will be better but yes (IMHO). I've seen all three and Soroka is no slouch. For some reason he gets labeled a soft tosser. He's not. But I think he sits 92 easily and knows how to pitch (not a flame thrower but...). Good group in any case.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Deester11 View Post
    Yes. Doesn't mean he will be better but yes (IMHO). I've seen all three and Soroka is no slouch. For some reason he gets labeled a soft tosser. He's not. But I think he sits 92 easily and knows how to pitch (not a flame thrower but...). Good group in any case.
    I was under the impression his 4 seamer sits 94/95?

    But throws the two seamer a lot more at 91-92 bc it’s a better pitch for him?
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    Behind Gohara/Newcomb Fried has arguably the best stuff in the whole organization. He's right there with Wright/Anderson but he is definitely in the discussion.
    Warm feelings guy!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tapate50 View Post
    I was under the impression his 4 seamer sits 94/95?

    But throws the two seamer a lot more at 91-92 bc it’s a better pitch for him?
    Exactly. He can dial it up but he changes speeds and location better than most of our pitchers. Soroka's ability to locate to either side of the plate is what has put him on an accelerated path.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Deester11 View Post
    Yes. Doesn't mean he will be better but yes (IMHO). I've seen all three and Soroka is no slouch. For some reason he gets labeled a soft tosser. He's not. But I think he sits 92 easily and knows how to pitch (not a flame thrower but...). Good group in any case.
    I am the President and CEO of the ATD Corporation. ATD means Always Trust Deester. Thanks for your insights. I always find them illuminating and your eye witnessing of these prospects really adds to the board.

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    I don't pay much attention to what scouts say about ceilings. Nobody wants to go out on a limb. If you predict someone to be a TOR and they fail then you look like an idiot. It's the same in life if you predict a negative outcome you're always going to be safe and never have egg on your face.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Chico View Post
    I don't pay much attention to what scouts say about ceilings. Nobody wants to go out on a limb. If you predict someone to be a TOR and they fail then you look like an idiot. It's the same in life if you predict a negative outcome you're always going to be safe and never have egg on your face.
    Exactly the reason I pointed this out - we had several posters bemoaning the fact that our guys aren't all projected as future "Aces" or TOR guys, as if there were tons of other organizations that grow them on trees. Many of those folks point this out in their efforts to call the rebuild a failure since it hasn't gone the way they feel it should. The fact is, there are very few (regardless of team) that get that projection from ANY prospect gurus just for that reason - if you went back and checked on everyone they hung that tag on you'd say none of them had a clue what they're talking about (including the BA, Pipeline, FanGraphs guys and his highness Keith Law) because their misses so far outweigh their hits. You'll also notice that those with higher ceilings are at far lower levels - those projections tend to become more realistic as they face more advanced hitters. The fact that Allard has the lowest ceiling of our group and has already completed a full season at AA as a 20 year old is pretty *amn impressive no matter how you look at it.
    Last edited by clvclv; 12-05-2017 at 11:16 AM.
    Waters is intersting too. Would prefer a guy that projects to more power though.

    If they don't make additions they can expect the same 3-5 win improvement they saw last year. That makes the Braves a 75-78 win team.

    The FO that needlessly promoted him early knew what they were doing and are paid to do this. We aren't, so we can't know more than them. Correction....they used to be paid to do this...

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    Quote Originally Posted by clvclv View Post
    Exactly the reason I pointed this out - we had several posters bemoaning the fact that our guys aren't all projected as future "Aces" or TOR guys, as if there were tons of other organizations that grow them on trees. Many of those folks point this out in their efforts to call the rebuild a failure since it hasn't gone the way they feel it should. The fact is, there are very few (regardless of team) that get that projection from ANY prospect gurus just for that reason - if you went back and checked on everyone they hung that tag on you'd say none of them had a clue what they're talking about (including the BA, Pipeline, FanGraphs guys and his highness Keith Law) because their misses so far outweigh their hits.
    Please point out the posts where folks complain about a lack of TOR guys.

    That isnít why folks disagree with the rebuild. As usual, you have no idea what youíre talking about.

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    Quote Originally Posted by 50PoundHead View Post
    I am the President and CEO of the ATD Corporation. ATD means Always Trust Deester. Thanks for your insights. I always find them illuminating and your eye witnessing of these prospects really adds to the board.
    Thanks 50. I really appreciate that and try to help people really understand more than a stat although I appreciate a good balance. There are some very good postees here and you're at the top sir!

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    it still remains to be seen if loading up on pitching was the wrong call. if we can effectively not have to spend money on any due to a steady stream of good starters coming in different waves, it could work out well.
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    Instead of starting a new thread I'll pose this question here. Let's say for the sake of an argument AA wanted to go after a front line starter or a stud bat. Which pitchers do you feel it would be wise to flip? It's hard to really know since we do not know how other teams view each prospect, but here's my 2 cents.

    Folty- Not really a prospect anymore. I feel as though he'll blow his arm out or continuously tease. I'd gauge interest in him this winter
    Allard- There seems to be mixed feelings about him, but coming from someone who has had back issues for many years and knows it never goes away he'd be atop my list. Also, we have Gohara, Newk, and Frid ahead of him as well as others behind him.
    Touki- Touki could become the next Chris Archer and teams fawn over stuff, but in the right deal I think you play the odds that it's 50/50 he ever puts it all together.
    Anderson- He seems to get overlooked for whatever reason so he may not be a good sell high candidate, but he was the #13 prospect his draft year even though we took him early.
    Wentz- Wentz had a great season and got some steam in prospect circles. That's a good sell high time IMO

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    Quote Originally Posted by Chico View Post
    Instead of starting a new thread I'll pose this question here. Let's say for the sake of an argument AA wanted to go after a front line starter or a stud bat. Which pitchers do you feel it would be wise to flip? It's hard to really know since we do not know how other teams view each prospect, but here's my 2 cents.

    Folty- Not really a prospect anymore. I feel as though he'll blow his arm out or continuously tease. I'd gauge interest in him this winter
    Allard- There seems to be mixed feelings about him, but coming from someone who has had back issues for many years and knows it never goes away he'd be atop my list. Also, we have Gohara, Newk, and Frid ahead of him as well as others behind him.
    Touki- Touki could become the next Chris Archer and teams fawn over stuff, but in the right deal I think you play the odds that it's 50/50 he ever puts it all together.
    Anderson- He seems to get overlooked for whatever reason so he may not be a good sell high candidate, but he was the #13 prospect his draft year even though we took him early.
    Wentz- Wentz had a great season and got some steam in prospect circles. That's a good sell high time IMO
    Take a look at the recent trades for controllable SPs. All of them required a centerpiece much more valuable than any of those guys.

    Folks love to talk about trading for Archer or Stroman or Fulmer, but they don't quite have a grasp on the type of package a SP like that will actually require. The cost would be so steep the Braves would no longer be in a position to need a TOR guy...at least for the next 2-3 years.

    I don't see trading for a TOR as a good idea, nor do I see it as particularly likely any time soon.

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    It’s be pretty disappointing to have drafted and accumulated all of this pitching just to trade it for a pitcher. With Maitan and others gone we really need to trade for a young controllable bat at either 3b or the OF.

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