I don’t watch much AL baseball, so I looked up MM on BR. Here’s his bWAR...
‘11 = 1.1
‘12 = 3.1
‘13 = -0.1
‘14 = 0.4
‘15 = 4.4
‘16 = 0.7
‘17 = 1.8
‘16 was a short season for him, but why the wild up-and-downs?
I don’t watch much AL baseball, so I looked up MM on BR. Here’s his bWAR...
‘11 = 1.1
‘12 = 3.1
‘13 = -0.1
‘14 = 0.4
‘15 = 4.4
‘16 = 0.7
‘17 = 1.8
‘16 was a short season for him, but why the wild up-and-downs?
I would guess some of the variance springs from the fact he's an odd player in that he's a ball-in-play guy who actually hits for some power, but that power varies quite a bit. Doesn't walk much and his K-rate has only been at 20% in one season. That means (at least to me) that if he's not hitting the ball with authority, his offensive value is going to vary wildly. Not particularly good on defense. I don't reference Nancy Reagan much in my life, but in this case:
Last edited by 50PoundHead; 12-10-2017 at 12:56 PM.
jpx7 (12-10-2017)
Horrible decision. We need to stay far away from Moose. Camargo will outperform him over the next 4 years.
Natural Immunity Croc
Moustakas defense has been on the decline for a while now. I don't expect that to get better while Camargo should put up strong positive defensive contributions and an improving hit tool
Natural Immunity Croc
JohnAdcox (12-10-2017)
Ok bud. That’s definitely not an extreme pozzy take on Mous vs Camargo.
Mous is going to make about $70M-$75M over the next 4 years. Camargo will likely make about $2M-$3M over the next 4 years.
That means you think Camargo carries about $70M in surplus value. I’m guessing no team in the game agrees with your assessment.
Last edited by Enscheff; 12-10-2017 at 02:22 PM.
From Peter Gammons:
"The Braves will trade Julio Teheran, who was spooked by their new, homer-happy park."
http://www.gammonsdaily.com/peter-ga...nter-meetings/
jpx7 (12-10-2017)
50PoundHead (12-10-2017)
Umm...
Mous is probably projected to produce something like 8 wins over the next 4 years. That’s why he is projected to earn $85M-$95M over the next 5. These salary numbers are what they are for reason. They are not just pulled out of thin air like your “projections”.
Literally nobody thinks Camargo is going to produce more wins than Mous. You think every single player in the Braves organization has a floor of 2 wins per year.
Giving Camargo a chance to be a serviceable 1-2 win player while he is cheap is perfectly logical. Claiming he will produce more wins than Mous is just being laughably pozzy.
Last edited by Enscheff; 12-10-2017 at 02:48 PM.
I just didn't understand this sentiment ms. Is he an ace? No, but his value lies in a bounce back, contract and /or change of scenery. He's continually short changed considering most on this board claimed Folty would be an "ace" by years end. If we don't trade for an ace and trade julio, you'll see what he meant to the rotation.
Perfectly good question ms. I think at the end of the day, you're selling low on him no matter what you do. I almost favor trading him because he's shot at Suntrust. I do think he's probably in the middle of not as bad as most people think and valued more for what he could be in the right rotation. While you'll be shopping him in the Way-Mart aisle, it doesn't mean you shouldn't upgrade to the Macy's aisle if you include his salary but I would never expect a "haul" for him.
Now, if you headline him and add a tier 2 prospect, you've significantly upped the return IMHO.
I think you are 100% correct. Teheran’s production seems to depend heavily on his control. When he has a BB/9 around 2 he is a legit #3 and possibly a low end #2. When his BB/9 is over 3 like it was last year he is a league average #4.
I like the chances of Teheran getting back under 3 BB/9 and being a 2-3 win #3. At that point it would be wise to trade him at the deadline if the Braves are out of contention.
I would not trade him now unless another team values him at around $30M in surplus value.
I would be in favor of selling JT at the deadline if he can bounce back. I worry with our current coaches they will tweak him to walk more and Twitner will completely miss manage his innings. Hopefully Acuna in RF and Oz at second will help the entire staff. Swanson has to be better too. He can’t be that bad defensively.
Coppy
I would keep in mind that AA has a track record of keeping his plans secret and that ESPN and Peter Gammons have terrible track records. I doubt Teheran is traded at the GM meetings and would think AA smart enough not to sign Moose to a long-term deal for third with Riley not far off and looking good.
JohnAdcox (12-10-2017)