Matt Kemp to Dodgers!

[thethe]

I have our current payroll for 2018 at ~$114m based on the below 25-man roster assumptions and 3 spots left to fill: high leverage RP, 3B, LF / RF. Guessing the final payroll number could be around $130m.

Position Name Proj. Salary
SP1 Julio Teheran $8,166,667
SP2 Mike Foltynewicz $2,700,000
SP3 Brandon McCarthy $10,000,000
SP4 Sean Newcomb $550,000
SP5 Luiz Gohara $550,000
RP1 Scott Kazmir $16,000,000
RP2 Daniel Winkler $800,000
RP3 Ramirez / Ravin $550,000
RP4 Sam Freeman $1,200,000
RP5 A. J. Minter $550,000
RP6 Jacob Lindgren $550,000
RP7 Arodys Vizcaino $3,700,000
RP8 TBD $0
C1 Kurt Suzuki $3,500,000
C2 Tyler Flowers $4,000,000
3B TBD $0
SS Dansby Swanson $550,000
2B Ozzie Albies $550,000
1B Freddie Freeman $21,359,375
UIF1 Johan Camargo $550,000
UIF2 Charlie Culberson $550,000
LF TBD $0
CF Ender Inciarte $4,700,000
RF Nick Markakis $11,000,000
UOF1 Lane Adams $550,000

REL Adrian Gonzalez $21,500,000

$114,126,042

Red Sox paid 11.5 when they moved him. Does that factor into his earnings at all?

[rico43]

I don't think that would do that but even if it did you have to figure out what to do with 3B/Util.

Many are projecting that Prado is also part of the deal.

[thethe]

[thethe]

Many are projecting that Prado is also part of the deal.

Not sure how much we can rely on Prado to be an everyday guy. I want him as a 300 PA guy.

[nsacpi]

I have our current payroll for 2018 at ~$110m based on the below 25-man roster assumptions and 3 spots left to fill: high leverage RP, 3B, LF / RF. Guessing the final payroll number could be around $130m.

Position Name Proj. Salary
SP1 Julio Teheran $8,166,667
SP2 Mike Foltynewicz $2,700,000
SP3 Brandon McCarthy $10,000,000
SP4 Sean Newcomb $550,000
SP5 Luiz Gohara $550,000
RP1 Scott Kazmir $16,000,000
RP2 Daniel Winkler $800,000
RP3 Ramirez / Ravin $550,000
RP4 Sam Freeman $1,200,000
RP5 A. J. Minter $550,000
RP6 Jacon Lindgren $550,000
RP7 Arodys Vizcaino $3,700,000
RP8 TBD $0
C1 Kurt Suzuki $3,500,000
C2 Tyler Flowers $4,000,000
3B TBD $0
SS Dansby Swanson $550,000
2B Ozzie Albies $550,000
1B Freddie Freeman $21,359,375
UIF1 Johan Comargo $550,000
UIF2 Charlie Culberson $550,000
LF TBD $0
CF Ender Inciarte $4,700,000
RF Nick Markakis $11,000,000
UOF1 Lane Adams $550,000

REL Adrian Gonzalez $21,500,000
$ From LAD -$4,500,000

$109,626,042

Numbers are close to what I came up with. I think we will spend minimal on a corner outfielder given the option to bring in Acuna after a few weeks. I've been pounding the drum on picking up Prado/Barraclough from the Marlins. I think the case for doing this is stronger now since Prado can play left until Acuna is brought up. Once that happens Prado can return to the infield and split time with Camargo and Swanson on the left side.

[50PoundHead]

This is Kemp's replacement in LF. An upgrade!

[nsacpi]

Could a tremendous 2 year contract for the Braves. McCarthey was pretty good last year. Maybe 20 million surplus value on his deal?

I think McCarthy will be about a 2 win player in 2018 and a 1 win player in 2019. Surplus of about 1 win. Obviously, other outcomes are possible, but I think the risks are about evenly balanced relative to that projection.

[thethe]

Numbers are close to what I came up with. I think we will spend minimal on a corner outfielder given the option to bring in Acuna after a few weeks. I've been pounding the drum on picking up Prado/Barraclough from the Marlins. I think the case for doing this is stronger now since Prado can play left until Acuna is brought up. Once that happens Prado can return to the infield and split time with Camargo and Swanson on the left side.

Where is he in the bullpen. I'm going to assume that Kazmir is in the pen.

Viz
Minter
Ramirez
Winkler
Freeman
Kazmir

I think another spot will go to Fried but that is much less clear. Also another spot potentially to Sims.

I just don't think the Braves want any long term money right now. Prado puts 15M on 2019 books. Not desirable.

[Enscheff]

This is exactly the type of trade I expected AA to pull off...a lot of names/money, and nobody saw it coming. Closest anyone came was nsacpi identifying McCarthy as a potential salary dump SP for the Braves.

The trade is equivalent to paying Kemp the balance of his contract this season and finding McCarthy on the side of the road willing to play for free. AA leveraged the present value of ~$18M in 2018 cap space and got the Dodgers to give a league average SP for it. That seems like a steep price to pay for salary cap space, so they must have something cooking.

McCarthy is the only player in this deal who will produce anything of note in 2018.

This puts the Braves somewhere around $105M-$110M in 2018, but I don’t have the exact number without access to my work PC.

Seems like a clear win for the Braves overall, and the Dodgers must be about to pull something off that requires cap space for 2018.

[goldfly]

This is Kemp's replacement in LF. An upgrade!

lol

have been there, it's amazing in person

[Southcack77]

I have our current payroll for 2018 at ~$110m based on the below 25-man roster assumptions and 3 spots left to fill: high leverage RP, 3B, LF / RF. Guessing the final payroll number could be around $130m.

Position Name Proj. Salary
SP1 Julio Teheran $8,166,667
SP2 Mike Foltynewicz $2,700,000
SP3 Brandon McCarthy $10,000,000
SP4 Sean Newcomb $550,000
SP5 Luiz Gohara $550,000
RP1 Scott Kazmir $16,000,000
RP2 Daniel Winkler $800,000
RP3 Ramirez / Ravin $550,000
RP4 Sam Freeman $1,200,000
RP5 A. J. Minter $550,000
RP6 Jacon Lindgren $550,000
RP7 Arodys Vizcaino $3,700,000
RP8 TBD $0
C1 Kurt Suzuki $3,500,000
C2 Tyler Flowers $4,000,000
3B TBD $0
SS Dansby Swanson $550,000
2B Ozzie Albies $550,000
1B Freddie Freeman $21,359,375
UIF1 Johan Comargo $550,000
UIF2 Charlie Culberson $550,000
LF TBD $0
CF Ender Inciarte $4,700,000
RF Nick Markakis $11,000,000
UOF1 Lane Adams $550,000

REL Adrian Gonzalez $21,500,000
$ From LAD -$4,500,000

$109,626,042

In a way, the Braves cleared payroll to buyout Kemp's deal, but in buying him out also acquired the fifth starter, a bench bat and whatever Kazmir might be.

Sort of strange how this ends the Kemp and Oliveira deals back where they began in LA.

Now looking at the Kemp for Oliveira acquisition as a complete circle, the Braves ended up being able to shed Oliveira's salary in 2019 and 2020, got 1.5 and a half of passable offense in LF while not contending in 2016 and 2017. It cost them a good bit of cash and gave them some assorted relatively small pieces in 2018, but all in all it turned out not to be that bad a deal. Just clearing the payroll two years earlier may well be worth it.

[nsacpi]

Where is he in the bullpen. I'm going to assume that Kazmir is in the pen.

Viz
Minter
Ramirez
Winkler
Freeman
Kazmir

I think another spot will go to Fried but that is much less clear. Also another spot potentially to Sims.

I just don't think the Braves want any long term money right now. Prado puts 15M on 2019 books. Not desirable.

If we got Barraclough I think he would be our 7th inning guy, with Minter and Viz handling the 8th and 9th respectively. The other guys in the pen would be Freeman (L), Kazmir (L), Winkler (R) and Ramirez (R). And a bunch of candidates for the last spot if we decide to carry 8 relievers. One thing to like with this is all four of Freeman, Kazmir, Winkler and Ramirez have the capability to give you multiple innings.

[clvclv]

Neck or Adams can be fourth of bc Acuna can be your backup cf.

I think the one year pillow deal should be something to consider if they move neck

The reports said the deal was agreed to on Thursday, but they had to wait until Gonzalez and Kemp agreed to waive their no-trade clauses. This could tie-in with the mention that AA was sniffing around on Duvall. if we could get him for second-tier arms, he's cheap and could fill Kemp's power void (like there was much of one). This would allow you to keep Acuna down as long as you needed to, then Markakis becomes your main pinch-hitter.

CF- Ender, 2B- Albies, 1B- Freeman, LF- Duvall, RF- Markakis, C- Flowers/Suzuki, 3B- Camargo, SS- Swanson

[BedellBrave]

Let the salivating begin: link

[jpx7]

This is Kemp's replacement in LF. An upgrade!

And unlike Kemp, long-term projections have them moving faster.

[Southcack77]

This is exactly the type of trade I expected AA to pull off...a lot of names/money, and nobody saw it coming. Closest anyone came was nsacpi identifying McCarthy as a potential salary dump SP for the Braves.

The trade is equivalent to paying Kemp the balance of his contract this season and finding McCarthy on the side of the road willing to play for free. AA leveraged the present value of ~$18M in 2018 cap space and got the Dodgers to give a league average SP for it. That seems like a steep price to pay for salary cap space, so they must have something cooking.

McCarthy is the only player in this deal who will produce anything of note in 2018.

This puts the Braves somewhere around $105M-$110M in 2018, but I don’t have the exact number without access to my work PC.

Seems like a clear win for the Braves overall, and the Dodgers must be about to pull something off that requires cap space for 2018.

If they are trying to stay under the luxury tax maybe not.

It would be funny if they sold Kemp back to the Padres for salary relief.

[nsacpi]

And unlike Kemp, long-term projections have them moving faster.

And also slimming down quite a bit. Melting off the pounds might be one way to put it.

[nsacpi]

Let the salivating begin: link

I think the most likely scenario is we decide to upgrade both left and third. From a risk/reward perspective I'd rather get two good players for those positions than one very risky long-term mega deal. Marwin Gonzalez is one guy on the list who appeals to me given his versatility and given that he may come on a reasonable contract.

[Carp]

I have our current payroll for 2018 at ~$110m based on the below 25-man roster assumptions and 3 spots left to fill: high leverage RP, 3B, LF / RF. Guessing the final payroll number could be around $130m.

Position Name Proj. Salary
SP1 Julio Teheran $8,166,667
SP2 Mike Foltynewicz $2,700,000
SP3 Brandon McCarthy $10,000,000
SP4 Sean Newcomb $550,000
SP5 Luiz Gohara $550,000
RP1 Scott Kazmir $16,000,000
RP2 Daniel Winkler $800,000
RP3 Ramirez / Ravin $550,000
RP4 Sam Freeman $1,200,000
RP5 A. J. Minter $550,000
RP6 Jacon Lindgren $550,000
RP7 Arodys Vizcaino $3,700,000
RP8 TBD $0
C1 Kurt Suzuki $3,500,000
C2 Tyler Flowers $4,000,000
3B TBD $0
SS Dansby Swanson $550,000
2B Ozzie Albies $550,000
1B Freddie Freeman $21,359,375
UIF1 Johan Comargo $550,000
UIF2 Charlie Culberson $550,000
LF TBD $0
CF Ender Inciarte $4,700,000
RF Nick Markakis $11,000,000
UOF1 Lane Adams $550,000

REL Adrian Gonzalez $21,500,000
$ From LAD -$4,500,000

$109,626,042

Unpossible. All moves clearly indicate payroll is decreasing.

[50PoundHead]

I like the deal a lot.

I think you have to give up allard to get yelich. Probably even if you take on prado.

I would try to get the marlins to bite on the poo poo platter. Allard, Newcombe,fried, sims, Cumberland mueller and seymore.

I would think the package to get it done is wright, pache, Riley and wentz. That would hurt big time but is probably the fair deal. You try to call their bluff and keep pache. They seem super high on Riley.

Given the international penalties, I don't know if I would trade any minor league position prospects, even for Yelich. The previous administration had obviously gone with a "draft pitchers/sign position players in the international market" strategy and now that our mondo international class of 2016 has evaporated, we are really bare in the hitting department in the lower minors.