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Thread: Matt Kemp to Dodgers!

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    Quote Originally Posted by NinersSBChamps View Post
    My gripe is simply that eventually you are going to need worry about this season instead of next.
    Even if you have that gripe, this trade does nothing but moves up our potential timetable so the gripe is oddly placed in this thread.

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    Quote Originally Posted by NinersSBChamps View Post
    My gripe is simply that eventually you are going to need worry about this season instead of next.
    That season is 2019 when the Braves will have something like 80 million to take on in FA/trades.

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    Quote Originally Posted by NinersSBChamps View Post
    My gripe is simply that eventually you are going to need worry about this season instead of next.
    Who is not thinking about 2018? Yes, this trade helps for possible free agent acquisitions for 2019, but that doesn’t mean anyone is looking past ‘18. Especially with a full season of Albies and the coming of Acuna. Think you’re reaching on this one.
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    Quote Originally Posted by CrimsonCowboy View Post
    Who is not thinking about 2018? Yes, this trade helps for possible free agent acquisitions for 2019, but that doesn’t mean anyone is looking past ‘18. Especially with a full season of Albies and the coming of Acuna. Think you’re reaching on this one.
    And we improved the starting rotation with Mcarthey. Sneaky salary move here.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    We have been kicking around the idea of the Braves using 2018 payroll to get rid of Kemp’s contract by buying him out. Rather than simply do that, AA was able to get a #4 SP and a utility player that should allow them to play Camargo at 3b.

    This was a very good trade that took advantage of the Dodgers luxury tax situation...a situation I’m sure AA was intimately familiar with.

    I don’t think any other GM could have handled Kemp’s contract better. Big props to AA for this.
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    I think that might be my favorite part of this trade!
    Go get him!

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    That season is 2019 when the Braves will have something like 80 million to take on in FA/trades.
    Glad to see you mention trades instead of only FA. 80 million will get eaten up quickly at today's FA prices. I would much prefer the big money additions be trades for the last couple of years of free agents who were signed 4 or 5 years ago.
    Go get him!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jaw View Post
    Glad to see you mention trades instead of only FA. 80 million will get eaten up quickly at today's FA prices. I would much prefer the big money additions be trades for the last couple of years of free agents who were signed 4 or 5 years ago.
    It will get eaten up quickly yeah sure, but if Braves want to do, they have the money to go after a big name in FA next winter.

    Not sure who, depends on development on some guys and if we trade for Yelich or not which would eliminate going after an outfielder next winter.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    If anyone was thrown a bone I’d say it was AA.

    The Dodgers basically gave the Braves a #4 SP for free, and a crappy but cheap utility guy just for moving Kemp’s money up a year...which they may have been planning to do anyways.

    This was an excellent move by AA, and good for the Dodgers as well. Perfect example of intelligent baseball FOs orchestrating a win-win.
    And there it is. This truly was forward thinking without punting away a couple of years. Complaints on this deal is misplaced for sure.

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    Dodgers value 2018 money over 2019 money. Braves value 2019 money over 2018 money. Swap makes perfect sense. The fact we got a couple pieces we can actually use makes it a good deal.

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    Maybe AA has a bigger plan...This deal makes me long even more for a Yelich deal. We could include a pitcher which we expected to pitch this year (like Tehran).

    If we could do give them a ready type package Teheran, Anderson, Wilson, Demerritte, Cruz for Yelich & Prado.

    2018 will both be competitive while also a year to assess where we are before the big FA class.

    Outfield - Yelich, Ender, Acuna (should be set for years)
    Infield - Freeman, Albies, Swanson (should be set for years)
    Prado/Flowers (short term) while we watch and see what Riley & Jackson can really become.
    Spend the year evaluating the success of young pitchers (both in Atlanta and coming soon)

    Still will have about ~$70M space for 2019.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesguy View Post
    Maybe AA has a bigger plan...This deal makes me long even more for a Yelich deal. We could include a pitcher which we expected to pitch this year (like Tehran).

    If we could do give them a ready type package Teheran, Anderson, Wilson, Demerritte, Cruz for Yelich & Prado.

    2018 will both be competitive while also a year to assess where we are before the big FA class.

    Outfield - Yelich, Ender, Acuna (should be set for years)
    Infield - Freeman, Albies, Swanson (should be set for years)
    Prado/Flowers (short term) while we watch and see what Riley & Jackson can really become.
    Spend the year evaluating the success of young pitchers (both in Atlanta and coming soon)

    Still will have about ~$70M space for 2019.

    I'd be curious what a Yelich and Prado package would cost the Braves in prospects. Of prospects that haven't made their MLB debut I'd be down to include any names that aren't Acuna and Wright.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesguy View Post
    Maybe AA has a bigger plan...This deal makes me long even more for a Yelich deal. We could include a pitcher which we expected to pitch this year (like Tehran).

    If we could do give them a ready type package Teheran, Anderson, Wilson, Demerritte, Cruz for Yelich & Prado.

    2018 will both be competitive while also a year to assess where we are before the big FA class.

    Outfield - Yelich, Ender, Acuna (should be set for years)
    Infield - Freeman, Albies, Swanson (should be set for years)
    Prado/Flowers (short term) while we watch and see what Riley & Jackson can really become.
    Spend the year evaluating the success of young pitchers (both in Atlanta and coming soon)

    Still will have about ~$70M space for 2019.
    https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/...ves-trade.html

    “Having completed this trade, it seems the Braves’ heavy lifting for the offseason is mostly over, as David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution details. They improved their defense by getting rid of Kemp, thus freeing up a spot in the outfield for elite prospect Ronald Acuna (he’ll be in the majors early in 2018, whether it’s Opening Day or a bit later); added a veteran starter in McCarthy (possibly two if Kazmir recovers from a hip injury); and landed a backup infielder they like in Culberson. While Anthopoulos said the Braves could still seek a third baseman and relief help, he noted that those areas are not priorities, O’Brien writes.”

    As I’ve been saying for months, the Braves 2018 payroll is likely to be ~$110M. They are now right at the edge of that number, so they can’t afford many other additions.

    They have punted 2018, and set themselves up to be major players next offseason.

    I give AA an A- on this trade. It would have been an A+ if they had gotten a position prospect as the positive portion of the deal rather then McCarthy and Culberson.
    Last edited by Enscheff; 12-17-2017 at 11:10 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    I'd be curious what a Yelich and Prado package would cost the Braves in prospects. Of prospects that haven't made their MLB debut I'd be down to include any names that aren't Acuna and Wright.
    Agreed. Wright and Acuna would be untouchable. So I’d offer Allard, Anderson, Pache, and Soroka if that’s what it took. That would still give us Wright, Gohara, Folty, Newcomb, Teheran, Fried, Sims, McCarthy, Touki, and Wilson as rotation options with Weigel as rotation options going forward.
    Last edited by Hudson2; 12-17-2017 at 11:16 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Hudson2 View Post
    Agreed. Wright and Acuna would be untouchable. So I’d offer Allard, Anderson, Pache, and Soroka if that’s what it took. That would still give us Wright, Gohara, Folty, Newcomb, Teheran, Fried, Sims, McCarthy, Touki, and Wilson as rotation options with Weigel as rotation options going forward.
    If we were offering Allard, Anderson, and Pache, but still needed to include more, Soroka feels like overkill. I would really prefer to hang on to him in that scenario, and I think with those first three that is definitely possible. I would include Wentz maybe

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    Demeritte was just available via Rule V. Doubt he has much, if any, trade value. And it's very unlikely the Marlins would have much interest in Teheran since they are entering a rebiuld. A 3 way trade with JT going to the Yankees or
    Twins and prospects going to the Marlins would make more sense.

    Something like:

    Yankees get Julio and maybe a reliever from Miami

    Marlins get Frazier, Allard, Pache, Albert Abreu

    Braves get Yelich and Prado
    Last edited by Carp; 12-17-2017 at 12:02 PM.

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    Still would like to see the Braves move Teheran and Folty. I can see the reasoning for keeping Inciarte, even if I don't 100% agree with it. I can also see the reason to keep Freeman, even though I think his value to the team in 2019 and beyond would be better utilized as a trade piece in 2018...assuming an acceptable return.

    But Teheran is really just a place holder right now, a guy whose main value resides in his contract control and reasonable cost. I think everyone can now agree that he's not an ACE or a #1 and will never be one. I think almost all would agree that he's not a #2 and unlikely to ever be one. he's a #3 in a good year, #4 in an average year on a good contract and the Braves, considering the focus of the rebuild, should have no problem trotting out that kind of guy over the next few years from internal minor league candidates.

    Folty is a bit different in that he's still relatively cheap and still has the possibility of further development. If you trade him now and the miracle light bulb comes on in ST2018, then you've made a bad trade. However, if the miracle light bulb comes on for him in ST2020 (or never), then you've carried him as a 3 or 4 through his control years only to have him blossom when you can no longer afford him. To me, it becomes a risk/reward equation where it's possible that there are teams out there willing to gamble on being able to flip the switch on his miracle light bulb.

    I wouldn't give either away. But I would shop both in hopes of getting a solid return and lining up even better for that 2018/19 offseason.

    Some teams I could see with interest would be Milwaukee, Minnesota, NYY, Baltimore, Toronto, Houston, Seattle, LAA, Colorado and maybe the Pirates. Those teams at least have some need for pitching and are in their window.

    The idea of hanging on to Teheran to rebuild value doesn't really do anything for me since I think teams won't change the way they value Teheran enough because of a 1/2 good season when weighed against the loss of that 1/2 seasons cost control. To think Teheran can improve his value significantly through his play is to believe that he can put in a star quality season. I don't think he can do that. But if he does, then the Braves won't trade him anyway. So those urging to hold on to him to see if he can rebuild value are really saying don't trade him at all. Keep him until the end of his contract regardless of performance. I see that as a low probability play for success.

    Maybe Teheran to Milwaukee for OF Brett Phillips and OF Tristen Lutz, two OF the Brewers could move where Lutz is a better long term piece but Phillips might develop into the everyday CF allowing for a trade of Inciarte.

    Maybe Folty and Markakis (plus $5.5M cash) to Baltimore for OF Austin Hays and RHP Hunter Harvey. Braves move Muk to a team that would want him and pick up a LF option and a live long term arm.
    Last edited by Horsehide Harry; 12-17-2017 at 12:01 PM.

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    If things go well we will have some starting pitching to trade to fill any needs. Certainly we will have a need in left. Probably a need at third.

    Assuming continued good health (always a big assumption with starting pitchers), we will finish 2018 with Teheran (under contractual control through 2020), Folty (2021), McCarthy (option for 2019) and young guys like Newcomb, Gohara, Soroka and Allard all major league ready. Possibly Sims and Fried if they figure a few things out. It is going to be a good situation. The only way this rebuild will work given all the resources we've devoted to pitching is to be able to trade out of a pitching surplus to fill in other areas of need.
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    If things go well we will have some starting pitching to trade to fill any needs. Certainly we will have a need in left. Probably a need at third.

    Assuming continued good health (always a big assumption with starting pitchers), we will finish 2018 with Teheran (under contractual control through 2020), Folty (2021), McCarthy (option for 2019) and young guys like Newcomb, Gohara, Soroka and Allard all major league ready. Possibly Sims and Fried if they figure a few things out. It is going to be a good situation. The only way this rebuild will work given all the resources we've devoted to pitching is to be able to trade out of a pitching surplus to fill in other areas of need.
    Agree. But I prefer to do that now. I don't believe that Teheran nor Folty will build more value over the coming season than they will lose due to the loss of control time. And I see both as having less long term value than most of the young guys (those with real value) since they are getting older (Teheran especially) and more expensive with less control (Folty).

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    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    Demeritte was just available via Rule V. Doubt he has much, if any, trade value. And it's very unlikely the Marlins would have much interest in Teheran since they are entering a rebiuld. A 3 way trade with JT going to the Yankees or
    Twins and prospects going to the Marlins would make more sense.

    Something like:

    Yankees get Julio and maybe a reliever from Miami

    Marlins get Frazier, Allard, Pache, Albert Abreu

    Braves get Yelich and Prado
    What part of “playing it conservative for the first year” do folks not understand?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Horsehide Harry View Post
    .

    But Teheran is really just a place holder right now, a guy whose main value resides in his contract control and reasonable cost. I think everyone can now agree that he's not an ACE or a #1 and will never be one. I think almost all would agree that he's not a #2 and unlikely to ever be one. he's a #3 in a good year, #4 in an average year on a good contract and the Braves, considering the focus of the rebuild, should have no problem trotting out that kind of guy over the next few years from internal minor league candidates.
    I agree. JT would have to have a career year in order to significantly improve his value. Just repeating his 2016 or 2014 performances really wouldn't move the needle much in terms of his value. He'd have less control and be a year older. Trading him now is the best course of action.

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