Time to empty the farm for him and yelich?
Time to empty the farm for him and yelich?
Swanson sucks
I would offer Withrow and Walker for Yellich and Realmuto. We have a surplus of pitching prospects whose names start with W. Time to thin out the herd.
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
Not sure I give up withrow for those 2Originally Posted by nsacpi
If Jenkins can get Sale, and MAdams can get Odorizzi, surely a package of Jenkins and MAdams can get Realmuto and Yelich. Might have to throw in one of DPete or TD now that the R5 draft is over and the Braves know exactly what their trade value is...maybe both, but that's a HUGE proce.
Guess the Braves cut MAdams loose too soon.
Get it done AA or you’re a bum.
I honestly think you have to figure out what the price is. The price should be huge. But this is real opportunity you have to know. If the price is 3 of the top 5 plus then you don't do it.
I know AA wants to wait and he should. But players of this caliber and control only come up at certain times. IF you can take on Bad money in Prado and Chen you look at that.
I do not think we win this. I do not think they will package them together.
Yelich has what, 75-85 million in surplus value right now if you include the option being picked up? I'm curious what the updated prospect value will be in 2018 as they have been skyrocketing but you are likely looking at least two 55 FV guys and a 50. I think that's the starting point. Allard, Anderson, and Soroka or something like that.
Obviously you would want to take on bad money in Prado or Chen to lighten the prospect blow if you can but I'm not sure what Florida is thinking there.
Yelich is $100M+ in surplus value.
Before the Kemp trade it was feasible for the Braves to take on enough bad money to lower the price on Yelich to the range of being reasonable. Now it doesn't look like the Braves have enough payroll space to take on that much cash.
However, if I’m wrong and payroll is really $130M, and Kazmir is only taking $8M of the 2018 payroll, there just might be room to pull off a Yelich plus bad contract package for a group of prospects that doesn’t include Acuna, Gohara or Wright.
I would love to be wrong if it results in a trade like that.
Last edited by Enscheff; 12-19-2017 at 07:11 PM.
You’re probably right. The X factor is they appear to be morons.
Jaw (12-20-2017)
That can’t be understated. The return on Ozuna was pretty underwhelming.
I'm not sure Yelich is a 30+ million a year guy. Maybe I'm wrong.
Projections have him at 3-4 wins let year, entering his prime.
Before the Kemp trade there were places on the roster for Prado, Chen and Tazawa. Now that the Braves have added McCarthy, Kazmir and Culberson (who AA probably loves as a utility guy), there’s really no place for those guys.
A trade for Yelich almost has to involve Prado to play 3B, and the Marlins overvaluing Camargo and one of Newk/Fried as a large part of the return. A trade getting rid of Markakis then becomes imperative.
Something like Yelich plus Prado plus Chen for Camargo plus Newk plus Riley plus another pitcher followed immediately by a Markakis salary dump trade. Prado takes over 3b and Chen slots into Newk’s rotation spot.
An OF of Yelich/Inciarte/Acuna for the next 5 years is probably worth all that hassle.
Braves1976 (12-19-2017), JohnAdcox (12-19-2017)
I favor Fried over Newcomb, though both have obvious question marks. So I would move him before Fried assuming Miami prefers Newcomb. I'd try to keep Riley and move another position player or even Anderson in the deal. I could see AA finding a taker for Markakis without much trouble.
I do have him as a 4+ WAR player throughout the rest of his contract. I just feel if he was on the market right now he would sign for 25+ and not 30+. I guess we will see what the market bears out with the remaining FA guys.
I certainly like the idea of giving up less for Yelich by taking on some other bad contracts that Miami wants to move (Prado, Chen). Hopefully we can find a creative way to get a great deal done with Miami here.
I've got Chen at $57.5M owed for 18,19,20 assuming there's no way you let the 2021 option vest.
Prado is owed $28.5M over 19,20
Tazawa is owed $7M in 18
That's $93M in contracts
Yelich is owed about $45M not counting his $15M 2022 option.
Yelich is $7M in 2018
Prado is $13.5M in 2018
Tazawa is $7M in 2018
Chen is $16M in 2018 ($10M salary plus $8M bonus payment)
Looks like that would be $43M added to current payroll. Assuming payroll is $130M or below, I don't see how even moving Markakis and all his salary (something I don't think can be done) would be enough. I think to come close to affording it the Braves would have to move Markakis and Teheran ~($19M)...something I wouldn't be against. You would just have to be willing to commit to the young pitching.
But if the Braves take on all that salary from the Marlins, I can't see sending much of anything back in terms of talent...maybe Camargo, Sims, Wentz. That Chen contract is awful.
In reality the Fish should just move all in with a complete rebuild.
Think about it. They've already alienated both their fans. Alienating them more won't make a difference at this point. Half their attendance is probably out of town attendance for the other team on vacation in South Florida and catching a series.
Even if they keep the few good players they have, they are still looking at a 90+ loss team. So, what difference does it make.
The new ownership knew what they were buying and they knew what they would have to do to get payroll where they needed it to be. They have a new stadium (so no pressure there). They have their TV contracts, local and national in place. They will get revenue sharing. So, the quickest way to make back a big chunk of your investment would be to slash payroll, rebuild over 5 years, and plan to try and compete in 2022-2023.
It would be better for them if they didn't HAVE to attach back contracts to their best players. But they do to a certain extent.
They've got good guys with value such as: Yelich, Realmuto, Bour, Castro, Straily, Barraclough, Urena, maybe Zeigler
They've got guys they need to move in: Chen, Tazawa, Prado, maybe Zeigler
What they should do is keep the bad contracts and get best value for the good guys focused on high end talent at A ball or lower (quantity and quality)
If they have to move the bad contracts, and it certainly looks as if they want to, then they should attach that to Yelich and get what they can. Then sell every other good contract off for high end (q&q) at A ball or lower.
Then they need to load up on FA with qualifying offers if they can (maybe MM, Hosmer, Cobb, Cain, etc.-they lose draft picks from their least advantageous year) and trade them at the 2018 deadline or offseason 2019. They created the payroll space and can afford to carry them for a while even if they can't move them all.
They end up with one of the worst records in 2018, 2019, 2020 and pick early and often then start transitioning some of the talent they got back in trades in 2018. By 2022, they could be a real force and the ownership group would have paid off much of their investment.
Chen’s 2018 salary does not magically include his entire signing bonus. It is widely accepted Chen is owed 3/52, broken down as 10/20/22. Further, Chen is not a total negative. He would likely be signed as a FA for $10M to round out the back of a rotation. His negative value is around $40M.
Prado’s negative value is probably around $15M. Tazawa probably around negative $5M. Yelich probably carries a surplus value of $110M-$120M. That total package is worth around $50M-$60M.
The Braves can easily piece together $50M packages, but after the Kemp trade they can’t afford $37M in 2018 payroll. With McCarthy, Kazmir and Culberson on the roster, there os no longer room for those other players. This idea lost all plausibility when that trade went down.
The most the Braves could possibly add to the 2018 payroll if they trade Markakis is about $30M. A Yelich/Prado/Chen deal can still make sense for the Braves. They would have to open a rotation spot for Chen, so the Marlins would have to value Newk. They would have to open up 3b so the Marlins would have to value Camargo.
Then they have to add about $25M in additional prospect value.
It could work out, but I doubt the payroll is anywhere near $130M, and the cost in prospects for Yelich without Chen is going to be prohibitively expensive.
I think I’d rather trade a better package of players for Yelich and Prado then take on Chen and that crap deal. AA just took on a lot of money to get rid of Kemp so I doubt he handcuffs himself with another horrible contract in Chen. Yelich and Prado would cost a lot just the 2 of them but I’d be very tempted to pay it.
According to Cots Chen's contract says $8M of his $13M bonus is to be paid on 6/30/18 which doesn't appear to be a counted deferred payment (deferrals are given further down in Cots). His 2018, 2019 and 2020 salaries are 10, 20, 22 which I think is the correct value for those years since it appears that the amount deferred from each salary is only deferred by 6 months or so.
I think the Braves could still do a Yelich, Prado, Chen and Tazawa trade IF they move Markakis AND Teheran ($19M), assuming they are looking at $130M as the number.
I guess the Braves might try to expand it with Realmuto coming this way and Flowers going the other way with the Braves ramping up the prospect value. That probably only washes the money Realmuto vs Flowers.
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