defensive metrics are notoriously unreliable, especially in the small sample that is a single season. according to fangraphs, trout was his worst defensively his 3rd season. then he went back up. then back down, but not to his 3rd season levels. trying to predict that with any kind of certainty is a fool's errand.
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It also helps to know what you are talking about. An outfielders range rating can generally be predicted well once a base line is established. For Trout he's been running below average for several years for a CF. He was 'bad' in his 3rd year because he was well below average with his arm that season. Arm rating is something that can fluctuate from year to year pretty wildly. I hope, and suspect, that is the case with Ender in 2017. Still, his range has taken a step back in 2016 and 2017 from seasons prior which really shouldn't surprise anyone. That's normal once you get to your upper 20's.Originally Posted by Super
While true Ender will never cost more than a 1 WAR player in salary. He's extremely cheap and will never be a bad contract.
I'm thinking slight improvement over 2017. More least homely of the two step-sisters than Cinderella. I think MFII summed it up best. Tons of variance and if it all ticks to the upside, you may be looking at a borderline playoff contender. You can't bet on young pitching, but you can't bet against it either. I wonder about the offense as well. Some likely erosion of performance at C and with Markakis.
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