Donaldson in 2019

[Carp]

1B historically crash in their mid 30's. In the last 50 years there have only been 8 1B from their age 32-37 seasons (a likely age range for Freemans next contract) to have over 20 WAR in that range. And even that is a suspect number because it includes players like George Brett who moved to 1B way late in their career. Most others benefits from being able to DH as well. Honestly the only player in that group who I would consider a true 1B and stayed their would be Mark Grace. But players who start out at 1B just aren't productive in their late 30's. I'd rather not pay Freeman mega bucks to be part of that trend.

To be fair, WAR doesn't properly value 1b defense imo. And this phenomena isn't confined to 1b either. According to that spreadsheet, among position players there's been less than 50 total players to have at least 20 WAR over that age span, regardless of position.

[jpx7]

If Donaldson were 5 years younger he would cost $300M+ over 10 years and some team would still be paying him $30M when he was 37. Whichever team signs an impact FA will be on the hook for an underwater contract when that player enters his late 30s. It is a certainty whether that player is Donaldson or Machado. The trick is to move a guy like Donaldson to 1B/DH at the end of his deal, and is why AL teams have a competitive advantage over the NL.

The fact Donaldson is going to be 33 in 2019 is the only reason the Braves have any shot at signing him. It’s probably not likely they will, but of all the impact FAs that have become available in the last decade, he stands as the most likely to sign with the Braves.

He’s probably not going to be a Brave, but it at least makes sense to discuss him. The same couldn’t be said for all the other guys with 0% chance of signing with the Braves that folks still insist on rosterbating over.

Again, I'm in no way disputing that any team that "signs an impact FA will be on the hook for an underwater contract when that player enters his late 30s", I'm just saying that the current market climate—and its (justifiable) greater reluctance to sign players already in their thirties—really depresses the earnings potential of late-bloomers, regardless of how superlative they end up becoming. That hasn't always been the case, but it is the case and it's unfortunate for a player like Donaldson—even if it's savvy on the part of teams.

[Skeeter31]

We need to hope AA is smart enough to realize this after seeing first hand how badly the Adrian Gonzales contract worked out in LA.

Old players move to 1B, so don’t sign an old 1B and watch him rot away to nothing on your roster.

The next post will be lauding how athletic Freeman is, so he will age better than normal. When someone posts that, have them take a look at Pujols, who was considered even more athletic than Freeman.

Exactly. While I don’t think there is a single Braves fan that doesn’t love Freeman, we have to be smart and realize he’ll be gone when his contract expires. He’s going to demand way too much money for a player and position that won’t be worth it for a mid market team like the Braves. We’d have more than a quarter of our entire payroll wrapped up in a single player, and a player that will quickly and steeply decline.

[nsacpi]

We’d have more than a quarter of our entire payroll wrapped up in a single player, and a player that will quickly and steeply decline.

same could be said with respect to Donaldson...as a general proposition we need to avoid signing 30something players to deals running 4+ years

[thewupk]

To be fair, WAR doesn't properly value 1b defense imo. And this phenomena isn't confined to 1b either. According to that spreadsheet, among position players there's been less than 50 total players to have at least 20 WAR over that age span, regardless of position.

True. In general players just aren't productive into their late 30's. As far as the WAR element and 1B defense. You may have a point. But it still should be obvious to most that primary 1B just don't last into their late 30's. We have Freeman through the perfect age. If someone wants to pay him big bucks after that then it will go horribly for them.

[thewupk]

same could be said with respect to Donaldson...as a general proposition we need to avoid signing 30something players to deals running 4+ years

Donaldson at ~28 shouldn't be a quarter of our payroll if we are to believe those 130 million numbers. If payroll stays stagnant yet again for the 20th year in a row then you'd be right. I don't necessarily think it's a great idea to push for Donaldson for 5 years or so but it would be the fastest way to make the team competitive during the Freeman window. Some things would have to fall in place in 2018 though.

[50PoundHead]

Certainly not ideal but most FA deals for good players carry big downsides towards the end of their contracts. Donaldson likely makes up for it in the first half of his deal though wherever he signs.

But whomever signs him will be stuck with a huge millstone in the latter part of the contract. Maybe some teams can afford that, but i don't think the Braves want to go through another considerable dead money experience if their payroll doesn't take a considerable jump.

[nsacpi]

But whomever signs him will be stuck with a huge millstone in the latter part of the contract. Maybe some teams can afford that, but i don't think the Braves want to go through another considerable dead money experience if their payroll doesn't take a considerable jump.

Agreed. It seems likely that the second half of that hypothetical contract (2022-24) is likely to coincide with the prime years of some of our best prospects. During this period Albies will be playing his ages 25-27 seasons, Acuna his ages 24-26 seasons, Soroka his ages 24-26 seasons, Wright his ages 26-28 seasons, and Gohara his ages 25-27. I would not be inclined to view those years as ones we should be "writing off" the second half of a millstone contract.

[thewupk]

But whomever signs him will be stuck with a huge millstone in the latter part of the contract. Maybe some teams can afford that, but i don't think the Braves want to go through another considerable dead money experience if their payroll doesn't take a considerable jump.

Yeah if the Braves payroll stays stagnant they should avoid it. If it goes into the 130 range like some are saying then it's something they should entertain. It would be dead money at the end but overall they likely get there moneys worth.

[salmagundy]

There are so many "ifs" and "buts" in this thread, the Braves should have a a very Merry Christmas.

[Enscheff]

Agreed. It seems likely that the second half of that hypothetical contract (2022-24) is likely to coincide with the prime years of some of our best prospects. During this period Albies will be playing his ages 25-27 seasons, Acuna his ages 24-26 seasons, Soroka his ages 24-26 seasons, Wright his ages 26-28 seasons, and Gohara his ages 25-27. I would not be inclined to view those years as ones we should be "writing off" the second half of a millstone contract.

It will definitely be a win now vs later debate. Any large FA contract exchanges future wins for current wins in the form of payroll capacity. It’s why “win now” teams sign impact FAs and bad teams don’t.

If the inclusion of Donaldson makes the Braves a legit WC contender in 2019, then it makes sense to consider cashing in some future wins.

If the pitching flops again this season, or the few young position players the Braves are relying on don’t perform as expected, it won’t make any sense to sign him.

[Heyward]

I'd rather go 5 years.

6 years and his 33-38? age seasons, oof those final 2 years could be very bad.

But going after Donaldson probably depends how the young pitching does next year.

[Southcack77]

Agreed. It seems likely that the second half of that hypothetical contract (2022-24) is likely to coincide with the prime years of some of our best prospects. During this period Albies will be playing his ages 25-27 seasons, Acuna his ages 24-26 seasons, Soroka his ages 24-26 seasons, Wright his ages 26-28 seasons, and Gohara his ages 25-27. I would not be inclined to view those years as ones we should be "writing off" the second half of a millstone contract.

That’s how I feel about it. No good reason to be killing future budget room to have Donaldson now as he enters his decline. Would be very unwise.

[nsacpi]

That’s how I feel about it. No good reason to be killing future budget room to have Donaldson now as he enters his decline. Would be very unwise.

There are ways to get good value for the payroll we will have next off-season without taking on contracts that become a big liability during the 2022-24 seasons. We have to look at the players who signed big contracts in recent years who come next off-season will only have 2-3 years left on their contracts. In some cases, the players are still productive but the contracts will not have much surplus value, which means we can acquire them without giving up much. Also there will be some younger players a year or two away from free agency (Eugenio Suarez for example) that we may want to target.

[Hudson2]

If we keep putting off winning then Freeman needs to be traded this offseason.

[Enscheff]

So what if in 2018...

Folty and Gohara post 3+ win seasons.

Soroka debuts and shows reason to project him at 2+ wins in 2019.

Swanson back to being a 2-3 win guy.

Albies posts 3+ wins.

Acuna posts 2+ wins in 400+ PAs.

The Braves win 80 games.

Riley shows he isn’t the answer at 3b.

Camargo shows he is truly a utility guy.

The Nats lose Harper and are no longer the super team they are now.

In that scenario the Braves would be projected to win 80-85 games in 2019 with a gaping hole at 3B and LF. Donaldson is sitting there as a 5 win upgrade.

Scenarios like that are why he’s the only premium FA the Braves could be in on. Well not only, I suppose they could be in on $100M options for LF too.

[nsacpi]

So what if in 2018...

Folty and Gohara post 3+ win seasons.

Soroka debuts and shows reason to project him at 2+ wins in 2019.

Swanson back to being a 2-3 win guy.

Albies posts 3+ wins.

Acuna posts 2+ wins in 400+ PAs.

The Braves win 80 games.

Riley shows he isn’t the answer at 3b.

Camargo shows he is truly a utility guy.

The Nats lose Harper and are no longer the super team they are now.

In that scenario the Braves would be projected to win 80-85 games in 2019 with a gaping hole at 3B and LF. Donaldson is sitting there as a 5 win upgrade.

Scenarios like that are why he’s the only premium FA the Braves could be in on.

Then I trade two of Newcomb, Teheran and Folty to fill our needs at third and left. Be willing to take on some big contracts with modest amounts of surplus value as long as there are only 2-3 years left on them.

[Enscheff]

Then I trade Teheran and Folty to fill our needs at third and left. Be willing to take on some big contracts with modest amounts of surplus value as long as there are only 2-3 years left on them.

And continue to waste the prime seasons of Freeman and Inciarte. Teams do not trade MLB position players for MLB pitchers.

The Braves will have to fill C, LF and 3B next offseason. I imagine 2 will be filled via FA, and 1 filled via trade.

C will likely be one of Flowers or Grandal, and following how they upgrade LF and 3B should finally make for a fun offseason for Braves fans.

[Hudson2]

And continue to waste the prime seasons of Freeman and Inciarte. Teams do not trade MLB position players for MLB pitchers.

The Braves will have to fill C, LF and 3B next offseason. I imagine 2 will be filled via FA, and 1 filled via trade.

C will likely be one of Flowers or Grandal, and following how they upgrade LF and 3B should finally make for a fun offseason for Braves fans.

I agree. You finally have to go for it. If not then why hang onto anybody? Just keep rebuilding.

[Tapate50]

Any chance Posey is moved when the Giants tear it down?