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Thread: 2018 Braves Spring Training Thread

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    Ask the Mets how that worked out for them. They had what you dream of and it lasted two seasons before guys started flaming out. The Nats have done a really good job but outside of Strasburg it's been acquired/bolstered via trade and FA once those pitchers found their mark. Pitching prospects are just too risky.
    Its definitely risky and I get it. I'm just not sure that many teams have had this type of high end pitching in this quantity. I also think like the Braves of the 90's that there will be a big time pitcher acquired as well.

    I'll always believe that starting pitching is the most important ingredients to wins and losses. Both in the regular season and the playoffs.
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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    I always hated the notion that just because they are getting paid to do it that they automatically knew what they were doing or more than message board posters. This doesn't pertain to just baseball FO's either. It should be clear by now that Hard/Coppy were not very analytical and just behind the times. You saw it with their mantra to return to the 90's style of Braves baseball and team building. That simply doesn't work anymore. I wouldn't be surprised of they were the least analytical FO after Stewart and Co were fired.

    I'm also curious to see how Snitker does this year. If it's true that it's the first time he's really seeing this type of data and there are people in place to help him make the best use of it then he might be a decent manager. To me the best quality of a manger is the ability to manage personalities and he seems to do ok there. The players certainly vouch for him. Now with data in hand to make in game decisions we might have something going there. Or he could all be lip service to fall in line with the new regime. Time will tell.
    Coppy with the Braves was like a 12 year old resetting his grandma’s wireless router, and then the grandma bragging about how smart her grandson is. Coppy has a very basic understanding of analytics, so compared to the rest of the organization, he was a genius.

    I do agree with your assessment of Snit though. We can’t fault him for not following data he didn’t know. It wasn’t his job to figure that stuff out. If he is willing to learn and utilize the info from the FO, there isn’t much more that can be asked of him.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    Its definitely risky and I get it. I'm just not sure that many teams have had this type of high end pitching in this quantity. I also think like the Braves of the 90's that there will be a big time pitcher acquired as well.

    I'll always believe that starting pitching is the most important ingredients to wins and losses. Both in the regular season and the playoffs.

    Teams, for the most part, that have constant success do it on the backs of position players. They are more reliable year in year out and generally are productive for longer periods of time. To me it goes back to probability. Just like with player evaluation you should build your team the way that most often works. Sure, there are instances where a team can build a super pitching staff and have it work. Is it likely? No. Just like when you had your notion that power was overrated after you watched the Royals win the World Series. They put the ball in play and rarely strikeout. Yes that can work but is it probable? No it's not. I'd rather build a team the way that usually leads to success and not rely on outliers.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    I always hated the notion that just because they are getting paid to do it that they automatically knew what they were doing or more than message board posters. This doesn't pertain to just baseball FO's either. It should be clear by now that Hard/Coppy were not very analytical and just behind the times. You saw it with their mantra to return to the 90's style of Braves baseball and team building. That simply doesn't work anymore. I wouldn't be surprised of they were the least analytical FO after Stewart and Co were fired.

    I'm also curious to see how Snitker does this year. If it's true that it's the first time he's really seeing this type of data and there are people in place to help him make the best use of it then he might be a decent manager. To me the best quality of a manger is the ability to manage personalities and he seems to do ok there. The players certainly vouch for him. Now with data in hand to make in game decisions we might have something going there. Or he could all be lip service to fall in line with the new regime. Time will tell.
    I would agree that he doesn't seem to have any issues with player/personality management, but game management is another thing altogether. I do think he could certainly improve there, if he'll listen to the right input. I am sure "instinct" will still be a part of just about any manager's game, but to me, Snitker errs more with things that suggest a predictable non-omptimized rut than with the occasional "gut" move.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    Teams, for the most part, that have constant success do it on the backs of position players. They are more reliable year in year out and generally are productive for longer periods of time. To me it goes back to probability. Just like with player evaluation you should build your team the way that most often works. Sure, there are instances where a team can build a super pitching staff and have it work. Is it likely? No. Just like when you had your notion that power was overrated after you watched the Royals win the World Series. They put the ball in play and rarely strikeout. Yes that can work but is it probable? No it's not. I'd rather build a team the way that usually leads to success and not rely on outliers.

    you could take your middle to low payroll squad and try to do the same thing the big money teams are doing. or maybe you could try a different approach and actually try to gain a statistical advantage.

    the mets were mentioned as some example of a failure on your part. you also failed to mention that they won the National League.

    your suggestion that the braves should do the same thing that many other richer and better run organizations are doing as some kind of plan to put the braves in front doesn't really pass the "probability" test.

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    Quote Originally Posted by msstate7 View Post
    Why would an anti-south guy like the Braves? Braves’ baseball is about as southern as it gets... well besides the SEC (no, not the security one lol)
    funny, i have a friend who is a huge braves fan because she grew up going to see the BOSTON braves.
    anyway, you're probably right about the braves now. especially without TBS and the need to worry about black people downtown, they've gone full trumpneck. where did you come from cotton eye joe? lol

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    Quote Originally Posted by chipchildress View Post
    you could take your middle to low payroll squad and try to do the same thing the big money teams are doing. or maybe you could try a different approach and actually try to gain a statistical advantage.

    the mets were mentioned as some example of a failure on your part. you also failed to mention that they won the National League.

    your suggestion that the braves should do the same thing that many other richer and better run organizations are doing as some kind of plan to put the braves in front doesn't really pass the "probability" test.
    Isn't the goal sustained success or an extended window of competing? Does either of that describe what the Mets had with their rotation? I'd rather be relevant for longer than two years before it's time to rebuild again.

    I wouldn't consider the Astros a rich team but they have certainly run their organization in an optimal way.
    Last edited by thewupk; 02-20-2018 at 08:23 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    Isn't the goal sustained success or an extended window of competing? Does either of that describe what the Mets had with their rotation? I'd rather be relevant for longer than two years before it's time to rebuild again.
    it's not like the mets had a ton of high ceiling pitching prospects. they had some and miraculously most of them panned out for a couple of seasons. We're not really apples to apples with them at all. and their issues haven't just been that their pitchers got hurt. they've had a good amount of position players get hurt and/or flame out as well.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    it's not like the mets had a ton of high ceiling pitching prospects. they had some and miraculously most of them panned out for a couple of seasons. We're not really apples to apples with them at all. and their issues haven't just been that their pitchers got hurt. they've had a good amount of position players get hurt and/or flame out as well.
    It was pretty miraculous that they panned out. It will be the same if the Braves somehow have a 20 WAR rotation.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    It was pretty miraculous that they panned out. It will be the same if the Braves somehow have a 20 WAR rotation.
    well, yeah. i'm not banking on that by any means.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    well, yeah. i'm not banking on that by any means.
    I just feel the bust rate and attrition of pitchers is so great that it just makes more sense to build around position guys. Much more stability there.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    I just feel the bust rate and attrition of pitchers is so great that it just makes more sense to build around position guys. Much more stability there.
    i get the logic but it can go both ways. every year almost every competitive team needs SP, and usually ends up overpaying for it in-season or giving out big contracts in the offseason. i'd rather sign a FA position player to a LT deal than a free agent SP. if a team has a bunch of young pitchers in the pipeline to replace injured or ineffective guys, it can save a lot of money and/or prospect talent. i think the braves have amassed an unprecedented amount of solid-to-great pitching prospects. we'll see how it pans out.
    "Well, you’ll learn soon enough that this was a massive red wave landslide." - thethe on the 2020 election that trump lost bigly

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    It was pretty miraculous that they panned out. It will be the same if the Braves somehow have a 20 WAR rotation.
    Gohara will be a 6 WAR pitcher and Soroka I can see being around 4. Then if the hype on Wright is real that could be another 4. Not hard to get 6 WAR from 2 spots if one is a FA signing.
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    Mauricio Cabrera was DFA yesterday. I remember when he was ranked as a top 50 Braves prospect of all time on this board last year

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    Quote Originally Posted by sturg33 View Post
    Mauricio Cabrera was DFA yesterday. I remember when he was ranked as a top 50 Braves prospect of all time on this board last year
    lol

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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    Gohara will be a 6 WAR pitcher and Soroka I can see being around 4. Then if the hype on Wright is real that could be another 4. Not hard to get 6 WAR from 2 spots if one is a FA signing.
    Yes but the chances of Gohara being a 6 WAR guy AND Soroka being a 4 WAR guy AND Wright being a 4 WAR guy are tiny. I think this where being the great uber POSI Brave leads you astray.

    Not everyone has to play the game the same way, but one rule I try to follow is for every Braves prospect I pump up relative to the industry consensus there has to be one I'm down on by a similar amount.
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    Verducci identifies Gohara as a high risk pitcher after a massive bump in innings last year. The article quotes AA quite a bit. AA is concerned by the big innings jump of our young pitchers

    https://www.si.com/mlb/2018/02/19/yo...low_twitter_si

    1. Luiz Gohara, Braves

    The Mariners signed Gohara out of Brazil at age 16 and sent him to Pulaski, Va., where many of his teammates were 22 and 23 years old—so it should not have been a surprise that he endured maturity and conditioning issues. Seattle unwisely traded him after the 2016 season to Atlanta for Shea Simmons and Mallex Smith, whom they flipped in a deal for Drew Smyly.

    Gohara began last year with the Florida Fire Frogs in Class A ball and finished it as the hardest throwing lefthanded starter in the majors (average fastball velo: 96.4). Despite the added innings and despite being out of the race, the Braves ran him out to the mound five times in September—giving him 30 starts on the year—including his final two on four days rest. He pitched six innings four times, making him the only pitcher that young to do so in the past four seasons.

    Gohara became the youngest Braves lefty with five starts since Odalis Perez in 1999. That happened to be Perez’s Year After Effect season. After the Braves gave him a 91% innings jump in 1998, Perez blew out his elbow in 1999.

    In addition to elite velocity, Gohara features a nasty slider and a functional changeup. He most often is compared to CC Sabathia, in part because of their bulk (Gohara is 6’ 3” and weighs about 240), but there are key differences in the way they throw. Sabathia has pristine mechanics in which he gets out over his front side very well, using his lower half to generate power and extension. Gohara throws in a “tall” position with a stiff front side, with little bend in his front knee without truly getting over his front leg. Sabathia is three inches taller than Gohara, but because of how he uses his legs throws with a release point that is almost half a foot closer to the ground. Gohara throws more like Drew Pomeranz and Carlos Rodon than he does Sabathia. Gohara last season had the eighth-highest release point of any lefthander with at least 200 fastballs.

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  22. #118
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    Quote Originally Posted by sturg33 View Post
    Verducci identifies Gohara as a high risk pitcher after a massive bump in innings last year. The article quotes AA quite a bit. AA is concerned by the big innings jump of our young pitchers

    https://www.si.com/mlb/2018/02/19/yo...low_twitter_si
    Yeah. Big bump in innings is one of the better indicators for risk of pitching injury. He's going to have another big bump up in innings this year (barring injury). If he emerges injury free after this season and next though, I'd be good with looking to extent him (assuming we can get team friendly terms).
    Last edited by nsacpi; 02-20-2018 at 11:01 AM.
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    the innings bump is something i haven't thought of, and a good reason to limit his innings and fully commit to this being a complete development year (not that we weren't committed to that already).
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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    It was pretty miraculous that they panned out. It will be the same if the Braves somehow have a 20 WAR rotation.
    As I said earlier, there have been 3 rotations this decade that produced 20+ WAR. That is 3 occurrences out of 240 team-seasons, or about 1%.

    If the Braves build a 15 WAR rotation without signing a $150M SP, they should consider themselves very successful.

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