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  1. #161
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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Pillar is certainly a plausible outcome for Pache. In fact, I think it's a pretty good comp, and may be very close to his most likely outcome.

    My issue is this notion that Pillar is Pache's (non-injury) worst-case scenario.
    I would agree. I don't think you can pencil in Pillar as Pache's floor. That's pretty absurd even if the defense is legit. There have been better skilled hitters who haven't come close to even what Pillar has done with the bat.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    I would agree. I don't think you can pencil in Pillar as Pache's floor. That's pretty absurd even if the defense is legit. There have been better skilled hitters who haven't come close to even what Pillar has done with the bat.
    Let's not get too excited. He's been one of the worst regulars in baseball according to wRC+.

    Granted, being a regular is quite an accomplishment in itself. Many guys with great defensive profiles never manage it. Which is why saying Pache's "floor" is starting CF in the majors is not a very reasonable thing to say at this point. But perhaps its not that far fetched.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    Let's not get too excited. He's been one of the worst regulars in baseball according to wRC+.

    Granted, being a regular is quite an accomplishment in itself. Many guys with great defensive profiles never manage it. Which is why saying Pache's "floor" is starting CF in the majors is not a very reasonable thing to say at this point. But perhaps its not that far fetched.
    Kevin Pillar is not a "starting CF in the majors". Kevin Pillar has posted 9.5 fWAR over his 3 full MLB seasons, and 10.2 overall...all at pre-arb salaries totaling about $1.6M.

    If Pache posts 10+ fWAR before he hits arbitration, we should all be very pleased.

    Setting that level of production as a prospect's floor is...silly.
    Gausman had a bad walk ratio for us -CrazyTrain 11/20/2018
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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    Let's not get too excited. He's been one of the worst regulars in baseball according to wRC+.

    Granted, being a regular is quite an accomplishment in itself. Many guys with great defensive profiles never manage it. Which is why saying Pache's "floor" is starting CF in the majors is not a very reasonable thing to say at this point. But perhaps its not that far fetched.
    Who's excited? I think Pache has a really good chance to replace Ender in a few years and still provide A+ defense. That on the cheap is very valuable. Can he hit enough to be able to make use of his defense? As you said many plus defenders never get a chance to show it because they can't hit a lick. Even as one of the worst 'hitters' in baseball he still hits enough to be a valuable player because of his defense much like Simmons does.

    I think the point is penciling in that kind of hitting ability for Pache at this point is pretty silly. Better skilled hitters have completely busted at the plate in the majors. His defense does give him a leg up though in that he likely doesn't have to hit much to be an everyday player.

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    Yeah, I'd say it's extremely possible Pache could put up like a ~60-70 wRC+ if his bat never really develops. Where would that put Pillar's WAR?

    But as to the question, if you knew a player was guaranteed to be Pillar, where would you rank him? Enscheff said top-25, but I'd think that player might be top-10?
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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Kevin Pillar is not a "starting CF in the majors". Kevin Pillar has posted 9.5 fWAR over his 3 full MLB seasons, and 10.2 overall...all at pre-arb salaries totaling about $1.6M.

    If Pache posts 10+ fWAR before he hits arbitration, we should all be very pleased.

    Setting that level of production as a prospect's floor is...silly.
    I agree.

    But Pache's defensive floor might well be every bit as good as Pillar's which (along with base running) has tended to be the largest part of his WAR.

    But like I said and others have implied/said/meant, even being one of the worst hitting regulars in MLB is a difficult thing to accomplish. It's presuming a lot to put that kind of floor on him.
    Last edited by Southcack77; 01-31-2018 at 04:20 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    Yeah, I'd say it's extremely possible Pache could put up like a ~60-70 wRC+ if his bat never really develops. Where would that put Pillar's WAR?

    But as to the question, if you knew a player was guaranteed to be Pillar, where would you rank him? Enscheff said top-25, but I'd think that player might be top-10?
    Top 10 might be more accurate than Top 25, honestly.

    10 pre-arb wins as a floor means, what? 12 pre-arb wins is a "good" outcome? 15 pre-arb wins is his ceiling?

    That's probably Top 10 for sure.
    Last edited by Enscheff; 01-31-2018 at 03:59 PM.
    Gausman had a bad walk ratio for us -CrazyTrain 11/20/2018
    BB/9 with Braves: 2.72

    Fried, Newk and a couple other guys for Bumgarner and give him a pay day for 6ish years -CrazyTrain 10/15/18

    I analyzed Teheran's motion. He will be a CYA candidate in 2018-2020, and will be an extension candidate. Do not trade him -GovClintonTyree 12/17/15

    Matt Adams to the Tampa Bay Rays for Jake Odorizzi makes too much sense not to happen -clvclv 10/17/17
    Matt Adams non-tendered by Braves 12/2/17

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    Who's excited? I think Pache has a really good chance to replace Ender in a few years and still provide A+ defense. That on the cheap is very valuable. Can he hit enough to be able to make use of his defense? As you said many plus defenders never get a chance to show it because they can't hit a lick. Even as one of the worst 'hitters' in baseball he still hits enough to be a valuable player because of his defense much like Simmons does.

    I think the point is penciling in that kind of hitting ability for Pache at this point is pretty silly. Better skilled hitters have completely busted at the plate in the majors. His defense does give him a leg up though in that he likely doesn't have to hit much to be an everyday player.
    we are on the same page.

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    Pache will be called up in 2019 and we will trade Ender and just play Pache and Acuna in the OF and five infielders. That is how good he is.
    Coppy

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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesfanMatt View Post
    Pache will be called up in 2019 and we will trade Ender and just play Pache and Acuna in the OF and five infielders. That is how good he is.
    Finally, a reasonable take.
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    I'm insulted by the insinuation that Acuna won't be able to handle all three outfield spots himself.

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    Quote Originally Posted by MadduxFanII View Post
    I'm insulted by the insinuation that Acuna won't be able to handle all three outfield spots himself.
    He can. But where are you putting 6 infielders. That is just dumb man.
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    God I need baseball. This slow offseason is killing me
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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesfanMatt View Post
    He can. But where are you putting 6 infielders. That is just dumb man.
    At least two players will be needed to restrain Blooper when he goes on a rampage so it all evens out.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesfanMatt View Post
    God I need baseball. This slow offseason is killing me
    Feels like it's still forever away. We still have to get through the worst month of the year, imo, before we really start getting into baseball season.
    From your favorite message board poster (me).

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    Who's excited? I think Pache has a really good chance to replace Ender in a few years and still provide A+ defense. That on the cheap is very valuable. Can he hit enough to be able to make use of his defense? As you said many plus defenders never get a chance to show it because they can't hit a lick. Even as one of the worst 'hitters' in baseball he still hits enough to be a valuable player because of his defense much like Simmons does.

    I think the point is penciling in that kind of hitting ability for Pache at this point is pretty silly. Better skilled hitters have completely busted at the plate in the majors. His defense does give him a leg up though in that he likely doesn't have to hit much to be an everyday player.
    I believe that Pache has gotten to bad wrap as being a slap hitter. At 18 years old in Rome he hit 20% line drives. Obviously the power isn't showing up yet but its always the last tool to develop. He has a frame where you would expect power to progress. Again - at 18 he did not embarrass himself at Rome. Thats not a ringing endorsement obviously but I don't see all this evidence that he is projecting to be a bad hitter.
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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    Who's excited? I think Pache has a really good chance to replace Ender in a few years and still provide A+ defense. That on the cheap is very valuable. Can he hit enough to be able to make use of his defense? As you said many plus defenders never get a chance to show it because they can't hit a lick. Even as one of the worst 'hitters' in baseball he still hits enough to be a valuable player because of his defense much like Simmons does.

    I think the point is penciling in that kind of hitting ability for Pache at this point is pretty silly. Better skilled hitters have completely busted at the plate in the majors. His defense does give him a leg up though in that he likely doesn't have to hit much to be an everyday player.
    Am I the only one that read this and thought @thethe posted it?

    And yes, I'm excited. Lots of potentially high impact players are progressing nicely through the farm.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jaw View Post
    Am I the only one that read this and thought @thethe posted it?

    And yes, I'm excited. Lots of potentially high impact players are progressing nicely through the farm.
    I am, an exciting CF prospect is good for the soul IMO.

    I think he ends up fine. You don't have to hit much yet he's shown some decent numbers so far at a young age (a factor I weigh pretty heavily). Many seem to indicate he is starting to fill out and should have room to add more pop.
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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    I believe that Pache has gotten to bad wrap as being a slap hitter. At 18 years old in Rome he hit 20% line drives. Obviously the power isn't showing up yet but its always the last tool to develop. He has a frame where you would expect power to progress. Again - at 18 he did not embarrass himself at Rome. Thats not a ringing endorsement obviously but I don't see all this evidence that he is projecting to be a bad hitter.
    The point isn't whether Pache is projected to be a bad hitter or not. It's that it's crazy to say his absolute floor is a below average major league hitter. That's not his floor. His floor is going full on Andy Marte or any other prospect that completely busts at the plate.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jaw View Post
    Am I the only one that read this and thought @thethe posted it?

    And yes, I'm excited. Lots of potentially high impact players are progressing nicely through the farm.
    lol. Actually if you want a true thethe post then look at Kiley's chat yesterday from Fangraphs. His Pache comments are 100% thethe

    But it's hard not to like supposed A+ defenders at premium positions. The hitting barrier for them is so low to actually make an impact at the big league level.
    Last edited by thewupk; 02-01-2018 at 09:45 AM.

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