Baseball America Top 100 Released

[ball4life32]

We will see. I am not going to look up the numbers but I think Pache has a better track record at this point than Ender. I think he might be a better defender too. But I'd still deal him if we could get Yellich.

Allard didn't even make Klaw's list for just missed the top 100. What am I missing? I haven't seen anyone say he's a number 1. But there are a lot of future mid rotation guys in the Klaw top 100. He's way low on Allard and Riley compared to others and way high on Wentz, Anderson and Pache compared to others.

Q Ball: Kolby Allard fell out of the top 100 but I was actually very fond of his 2017. He showed 150 innings of health pitching in the same league all year where batters saw him over and over again. And he was only 19 for the majority of the season. What am I missing?

Keith Law: You didn’t see him, I guess. He was working with a 45 fastball much of the year, and he always had durability questions because he’s on the smaller side. He’s a very different guy at 90-93 and touching a little more than at 87-88.

[Enscheff]

Q Ball: Kolby Allard fell out of the top 100 but I was actually very fond of his 2017. He showed 150 innings of health pitching in the same league all year where batters saw him over and over again. And he was only 19 for the majority of the season. What am I missing?

Keith Law: You didn’t see him, I guess. He was working with a 45 fastball much of the year, and he always had durability questions because he’s on the smaller side. He’s a very different guy at 90-93 and touching a little more than at 87-88.

I've seen stuff like this about Allard, suggesting he is getting out inexperienced hitters with superior sequencing more than anything else.

It's why I have him ranked below Gohara, Wright, and Soroka. He seems to profile as a pitchability LHer that sits at the back of the rotation.

[Russ2dollas]

Q Ball: Kolby Allard fell out of the top 100 but I was actually very fond of his 2017. He showed 150 innings of health pitching in the same league all year where batters saw him over and over again. And he was only 19 for the majority of the season. What am I missing?

Keith Law: You didn’t see him, I guess. He was working with a 45 fastball much of the year, and he always had durability questions because he’s on the smaller side. He’s a very different guy at 90-93 and touching a little more than at 87-88.

I get why you drop him. But out of the top 100?

He's still getting guys out in AA at 19-20. Isn't that profile exactly what Wentz is doing but Wentz is doing it at a lower level? I think the is more data on Allard throwing hard than Wentz.

[Carp]

I've seen stuff like this about Allard, suggesting he is getting out inexperienced hitters with superior sequencing more than anything else.

It's why I have him ranked below Gohara, Wright, and Soroka. He seems to profile as a pitchability LHer that sits at the back of the rotation.

According to Allard, he was specifically working on his change all year. And reports are that his fastball looked better in the 2nd half of the year, coinciding with improved peripherals which would back that up. The same thing happened to Julio. He spent much of his AAA season working on his change and his stats suffered and sports writers started claiming a drop in velocity. We know now that the reports of his working on his change were true, as he pitched terrific the following year.

[Southcack77]

According to Allard, he was specifically working on his change all year. And reports are that his fastball looked better in the 2nd half of the year, coinciding with improved peripherals which would back that up. The same thing happened to Julio. He spent much of his AAA season working on his change and his stats suffered and sports writers started claiming a drop in velocity. We know now that the reports of his working on his change were true, as he pitched terrific the following year.

I do remember that there was discussion that he was working on things and then right about that time he started ballin'.

[Super]

you would think law understands development. i think allard is fine.

[Russ2dollas]

Klaw still has us the number 1 system.

Allard is also 20. I know he doesn't have a big frame and muscled development isn't a huge thing for velocity. But it's likely that he is going to mature some and probably be able to sustain velocity more at the very least.

I appreciate that Klaw does his own thing. It's not a carbon copy of everyone else. He also tells you why. You can say he's an idiot but at least you get an opinion and some stuff behind that. For me it's ok to be down on some and higher on others. We have a lot of guys that have a chance.

It will be a big year in the system. New GM. A lot of guys that are close to the majors getting chances in AA or higher. We'll know a lot more about some of the big names this time next year.

[thewupk]

The thing about prospect lists is that players ranked ~75 to ~130 are essentially the same. Very little difference there. So whether Allard is ranked in the back end of the top 100 or not in it at all doesn't really matter. It's clear he's dropped to a 50 FV guy right now.

[Super]

BA loses me on crawford at 16.

[Tapate50]

Allard likely wore out with a full year. Durability most likely his biggest flaw as of now. Good news is that it can be improved a whole lot.

Personally if you are gonna ding a guy for something, I like something easily fixable.

[BeanieAntics]

Klaw still has us the number 1 system.

Allard is also 20. I know he doesn't have a big frame and muscled development isn't a huge thing for velocity. But it's likely that he is going to mature some and probably be able to sustain velocity more at the very least.

I appreciate that Klaw does his own thing. It's not a carbon copy of everyone else. He also tells you why. You can say he's an idiot but at least you get an opinion and some stuff behind that. For me it's ok to be down on some and higher on others. We have a lot of guys that have a chance.

It will be a big year in the system. New GM. A lot of guys that are close to the majors getting chances in AA or higher. We'll know a lot more about some of the big names this time next year.

I can appreciate Law's prospect work and all that good stuff, but geez his political snobbery on twitter is insufferable. I'm not a "stick to sports" person, but having an opinion on something and labeling all dissent as ignorance/stupidity really irks me sometimes.

[striker42]

Q Ball: Kolby Allard fell out of the top 100 but I was actually very fond of his 2017. He showed 150 innings of health pitching in the same league all year where batters saw him over and over again. And he was only 19 for the majority of the season. What am I missing?

Keith Law: You didn’t see him, I guess. He was working with a 45 fastball much of the year, and he always had durability questions because he’s on the smaller side. He’s a very different guy at 90-93 and touching a little more than at 87-88.

I don't have a huge problem with Allard falling off the list. He needs to put together a year where he's healthy and shows a consistently good fastball. I think as he gets further away from his injury issues and builds strength that we could very well see him establish that fastball consistently in the low 90s. When that happens he'll explode. He's got the secondary stuff, the command, and doesn't give up many HRs.

[thethe]

Is it possible that the braves had him working on a 2 seamed most of the year? Is their any pitch breakdown data for the minor leagues?

[Russ2dollas]

Is it possible that the braves had him working on a 2 seamed most of the year? Is their any pitch breakdown data for the minor leagues?

I did a quick google search and it seems like most ppl are reporting FB velocity of 88-92 with movement. Mostly complimentary of it. Earlier reports talk about up to 95 when he was pitching less innings.

I get that FB is critical to a starting pitcher. That said this is still a guy who was 5 years below the avg age last year. 129 K in 150 innings. Only 50 walks. Not a shut down guy but not giving up a ton of hits or hrs. To have that not be top guy is surprising.

[thethe]

I did a quick google search and it seems like most ppl are reporting FB velocity of 88-92 with movement. Mostly complimentary of it. Earlier reports talk about up to 95 when he was pitching less innings.

I get that FB is critical to a starting pitcher. That said this is still a guy who was 5 years below the avg age last year. 129 K in 150 innings. Only 50 walks. Not a shut down guy but not giving up a ton of hits or hrs. To have that not be top guy is surprising.

I'm guessing they wanted him to work on movement and reserving energy by reducing his effort so he gets use to a full season load of innings. There is no way a way throws mid 90s down to high 80s without a report of arm issues. My guess is that it was intentional strategy by the organization.

[bravesfanMatt]

All speculation. Did Allard throw 92 for first 3 inning then drop. Did he range from 92 to 88 all game. What was avalerage per game. Many things need to be answered. So I say let him pitch and if he is 88 soft thrower he will get exposed as the talent he faces become better.

[Russ2dollas]

I'm guessing they wanted him to work on movement and reserving energy by reducing his effort so he gets use to a full season load of innings. There is no way a way throws mid 90s down to high 80s without a report of arm issues. My guess is that it was intentional strategy by the organization.

maybe he does have arm issues. We will see.

Pitchability seems like a poor excuse when it's coming from a guy years below league avg. This is AA, not A ball. It's a 20 yo in AA, not a college senior in rookie ball.

I know we will all be watching velocity report from his starts from now on. Allard and Wentz velocity stalking.

[Enscheff]

He's obviously not going to say that any Braves prospect's floor is a guy who never contributes anything. These guys will read this stuff.

My guess is that he means that a reasonable low-end projection for him, given his current abilities, is Kevin Pillar. I don't think there's ever been any prospect in baseball history in A-ball who didn't have an absolute floor of 'never contributes anything at the major league level.' Obviously Kiley knows that.

What Pache does have is apparently incredible athleticism and defense. Sure, it's possible he doesn't get to Pillar's level. But Pillar was a major league player who made it almost entirely on defense and athleticism. So even if Pache doesn't add anything else to his game, he can get to a level like that. I'm pretty sure that's what he's saying.

Here is his latest blurb about Pache:

Tom: I am wondering if Cristian Pache‘s upside gets him on the Top 100 or if he still has to continue to prove he can hit before he makes that jump.
Kiley McDaniel: Let me ask you this, everyone still reading
Kiley McDaniel: And you can answer in the comment
Kiley McDaniel: If Kevin Pillar was a prospect and you KNEW he would be Kevin Pillar, whereas all the other prospects are the same unknowns, where would you rank no risk Kevin Pillar in a top 100?
Kiley McDaniel: And that’s the 6 controlled MLB years of Pillar, we don’t care about what he does when he’s 33 or whatever

I'm not sure how anyone can take these comments to mean anything other than "Pache's floor is Kevin Pillar".

For reference, Pillar has produced 9.5 fWAR over his 3 full MLB seasons, and is projected to produce 2.2-2.7 fWAR in 2018.

If that's the floor for Pache...that's a top 25 guy...which is silly.

[thewupk]

Here is his latest blurb about Pache:

Tom: I am wondering if Cristian Pache‘s upside gets him on the Top 100 or if he still has to continue to prove he can hit before he makes that jump.
Kiley McDaniel: Let me ask you this, everyone still reading
Kiley McDaniel: And you can answer in the comment
Kiley McDaniel: If Kevin Pillar was a prospect and you KNEW he would be Kevin Pillar, whereas all the other prospects are the same unknowns, where would you rank no risk Kevin Pillar in a top 100?
Kiley McDaniel: And that’s the 6 controlled MLB years of Pillar, we don’t care about what he does when he’s 33 or whatever

I'm not sure how anyone can take these comments to mean anything other than "Pache's floor is Kevin Pillar".

For reference, Pillar has produced 9.5 fWAR over his 3 full MLB seasons, and is projected to produce 2.2-2.7 fWAR in 2018.

If that's the floor for Pache...that's a top 25 guy...which is silly.

Yeah. Kiley must be on the Pache bandwagon. So I'm really curious now what Pache gets graded on Saturday when the top 100 list comes out. If Kiley 'knows' that Pache will be like Pillar, and as a result produce something like ~15 in pre FA years, then he's going to have a surplus value of ~100 million which equals a high end prospect. I just don't see that.

[Enscheff]

Yeah. Kiley must be on the Pache bandwagon. So I'm really curious now what Pache gets graded on Saturday when the top 100 list comes out. If Kiley 'knows' that Pache will be like Pillar, and as a result produce something like ~15 in pre FA years, then he's going to have a surplus value of ~100 million which equals a high end prospect. I just don't see that.

Pillar is certainly a plausible outcome for Pache. In fact, I think it's a pretty good comp, and may be very close to his most likely outcome.

My issue is this notion that Pillar is Pache's (non-injury) worst-case scenario.