Fangraphs had 55 FV guys all the way to #72 a year ago and now they only make it to #42.
Seems like it's an overall weaker prospect group.
jpx7 (02-06-2018)
I didn't act like the Braves were right to take Lewis over Anderson because he blew up his knee.
1) Why are we even comparing these two players? The Braves passed on Lewis, just like ten other teams passed on Lewis. Given his draft position, it is curious that the Braves are for some reason supposed to account for passing over him because some Braves fans valued him higher than MLB did. This is the opportunity cost that Anderson is supposed to represent? Why not someone else? Because he played college ball in Georgia? I don't get it.
2) If we are going to compare them for whatever reason, any argument based on a good 100 ABs in short season ball when he was two or three years older than the competition is somewhat weak.
That's all.
I think counterfactuals lose some interest over time, particularly when you are looking at alternate history for the counterfactual. What would Lewis have done if he didn't blow out his knee? Who knows?
Anderson has been ok, but nothing amazing so far.
FG chat is poppin off right now
"Well, you’ll learn soon enough that this was a massive red wave landslide." - thethe on the 2020 election that trump lost bigly
“I can’t fix my life, but I can fix the world.” - sturg
I added the bold to help you out.
JP
12:24 Kyle Lewis didn't even get a mention. Is this all injury-related? How much hope does he still have?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:26 Certainly it's injury-related. Dr. Martin didn't exactly instill confidence when she wouldn't commit to all three of Lewis, Carlson and White being ready for ST in a press conference last week. How many times did Lewis start up and shut down last year, four? Five?
They didn't answer my question explicitly, but it looks like re-calibration is the simple answer.
Kiley McDaniel
12:33 And there's also been some questions about why was a guy ranked here in a list a year ago and is here now. We're always gathering new info and calibrating the FV system for how many guys should be 50 or 55 and now there's a new person with new information to mix in. So it isn't some vendetta against your team or some guy got worse in the 2 months when he wasn't playing. This won't be quite as jarring going forward.
Interesting to see them finally trying to account for risk of pitchers making them less valuable overall
Doug
12:54 You guys seem pretty down on the current crop of pitchers. Seemed like everyone outside of Whitley/Ohtani are projected as mid-rotation pieces.
Kiley McDaniel
12:55 This isn't necessarily being down on all pitchers, since you can see the pitch grades. My issue, at least, is that these lists have been proven to always have too many pitchers at the top of the lists and too many at the very top. There's inherently more risk and so we're trying to reflect that reality, since clubs do this too. Also, there were lots of hitters we liked.
They have Riley listed at 3B. That is more meaningful than just listing his current MiLB position.
Billy Beane
12:56 What is your rationale behind putting players at a projected position even if they've never played it?
Eric A Longenhagen
12:57 'member when Miguel Cabrera spent his first two pro seasons at shortstop? It's just subjective projection on guys like Vlad and Chavis, you can either buy that we have good feel for that kind of thing or not, totally fine.
Kiley McDaniel
12:57 Going back to an earlier comment: we are projecting. We know Chavis and Vlad Jr. haven't played 1B before. If we think they're both below average 3B that move and could only fit in a regular role at 1B...do you want us to list them at 3B when we think they won't play there? You can look up the hard data about where they played, we're trying to tell you what's going to happen.
jpx7 (02-06-2018)
It was everyone.
Then he puts in a lot of work to get into shape, flitters around AFL like a male ballerina, and suddenly everyone thinks he is a solid defender at 3B. Hell, BA called him the best defensive IFer in the organization.
Couple that with all the "slow bat" comments, and Riley might be a guy all the prospect gurus missed on if he becomes a 2-3 win guy at 3B.
jpx7 (02-06-2018)