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Thread: FG's Top 46 Recently Graduated Prospects

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    FG's Top 46 Recently Graduated Prospects

    FG just posted an article ranking the recently graduated prospects, complete with present and future values (PV and FV).

    https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/rank...ted-prospects/

    This is interesting because some teams that didn't have much in the Top 100 prospects have some good value on this list. Unsurprisingly, the Braves are well represented on this list too:

    5. Albies 55/65
    11. Swanson 45/55
    20. Newcomb 45/55
    44. Camargo 45/50

    For reference, here are what the PVs/FVs mean:



    So Albies is currently an above average 2.5 WAR guy, who they are projecting to be an All-Star 4 WAR guy at peak. I agree.

    Swanson is a below average player who they project to become an above average regular. I agree.

    Newk is a #5 or BP arm who they are projecting to become a MOR SP or a decent closer. I think he will be Oliver Perez.

    Camargo is a utility guy who they think can become an average regular. I think he will be a good utility guy rather than a regular..
    Last edited by Enscheff; 02-08-2018 at 03:11 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    So Albies is currently an above average 2.5 WAR guy, who they are projecting to be an All-Star 4 WAR guy at peak.

    Swanson is a below average player who they project to become an above average regular.

    Newk is a #5 or BP arm who they are projecting to become a MOR SP or a decent closer.

    Camargo is a utility guy who they think an become an average regular.

    I think those are pretty spot on for what the board consensus would be for those players current value compared to what their upside is.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    I think those are pretty spot on for what the board consensus would be for those players current value compared to what their upside is.
    Albies is going to be a an absolute stud. 6 WAR player
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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    Albies is going to be a an absolute stud. 6 WAR player
    I think that's his high end upside but his likely upside is a 4 WAR regular all-star type. I don't believe he will have enough power to profile as a consistent 6 WAR player

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    I think that's his high end upside but his likely upside is a 4 WAR regular all-star type. I don't believe he will have enough power to profile as a consistent 6 WAR player
    35+ Doubles 10+ Triples 10-15 homers.

    He will have a high average. Not sure if those numbers get him to 6+ WAR but I also expect him to play elite defense for at least 4-5 more years.
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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    Albies is going to be a an absolute stud. 6 WAR player
    maybe 6 war if he plays SS. Not sure on 2B.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Russ2dollas View Post
    maybe 6 war if he plays SS. Not sure on 2B.
    I just think the kid is going to hit and hit a lot. That power is still developing. There is a non-zero chance that he ends up having a couple of 20+ HR years.
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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    35+ Doubles 10+ Triples 10-15 homers.

    He will have a high average. Not sure if those numbers get him to 6+ WAR but I also expect him to play elite defense for at least 4-5 more years.
    That profile is roughly league average power as a .300 hitter with a. 166 ISO. The only hitter last year to approach 6 WAR and have a ISO under 200 was Seager who played plus defense at short. @016 you had players like Brandon Crawford, Adam Eaton, and Lindor who also all play plus to elite defense at premium positions. Without good to great power it's really hard for a hitter to get to the 6 WAR level unless you are a primo defender. Maybe Albies is that guy. We'll see.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    That profile is roughly league average power as a .300 hitter with a. 166 ISO. The only hitter last year to approach 6 WAR and have a ISO under 200 was Seager who played plus defense at short. @016 you had players like Brandon Crawford, Adam Eaton, and Lindor who also all play plus to elite defense at premium positions. Without good to great power it's really hard for a hitter to get to the 6 WAR level unless you are a primo defender. Maybe Albies is that guy. We'll see.
    Awesome research.

    Thank you.
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    I love the guy, but if he Albies posts more than 1 or 2 seasons of 6 WAR or better, then it's proof that human cloning was developed 21 years and Robbie Alomar was the guinea pig.

    You're talking about HOF numbers for a 2 bagger.

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    I'm talking about Altuve which I don't see why is sacrosanct to think he has a chance to become.
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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    I'm talking about Altuve which I don't see why is sacrosanct to think he has a chance to become.
    Of course you don’t.

    However, most people realize that Altuve had a lower K rate and a higher ISO than Albies throughout his minor league career. People who are able to realize those facts understand that Altuve is an unrealistic comp for Albies.

    Everyone else projects Albies to be a 4 win player, tehteh wants him to be a 6 win player.

    Everyone else projects Newk to be a 1-2 win pitcher, tehteh wants him to be a 4+ win TOR starter.

    And on and on with every single Braves player.
    Last edited by Enscheff; 02-08-2018 at 06:53 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Of course you don’t.

    However, most people realize that Altuve had a lower K rate and a higher ISO than Albies throughout his minor league career. People who are able to realize those facts understand that Altuve is an unrealistic comp for Albies.
    Altuve is also like the 1% ceiling for those types of players. His 2014 and 2015 seasons are what you would expect his ceiling and prime to look like not 2016 and 2017.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Of course you don’t.

    However, most people realize that Altuve had a lower K rate and a higher ISO than Albies throughout his minor league career. People who are able to realize those facts understand that Altuve is an unrealistic comp for Albies.

    Everyone else projects Albies to be a 4 win player, tehteh wants him to be a 6 win player.

    Everyone else projects Newk to be a 1-2 win pitcher, tehteh wants him to be a 4+ win TOR starter.

    And on and on with every single Braves player.
    And most people will realize that Altuve was older than Albies at basically every single stop. People who are able to realize those facts understand that Altuve is a reasonable comp for Albies.
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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    And most people will realize that Altuve was older than Albies at basically every single stop. People who are able to realize those facts understand that Altuve is a reasonable comp for Albies.
    Yeah, no. You’re the only one who thinks he’s a reasonable comp.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    And most people will realize that Altuve was older than Albies at basically every single stop. People who are able to realize those facts understand that Altuve is a reasonable comp for Albies.
    As much as I’d love for Albies to become Altuve it’s just not going to happen. He’ll be a great 2B but he’s not going to be at that level. And what are you going to do if he has a regression this season like Swanson had last? It’s a definite possibility that you have to be prepared for.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Yeah, no. You’re the only one who thinks he’s a reasonable comp.
    Thats fine but don't be a pretentious prick when your rationale of Altuves performance in the minor leagues at a higher age than Albies is non nonsensical.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Skeeter31 View Post
    As much as I’d love for Albies to become Altuve it’s just not going to happen. He’ll be a great 2B but he’s not going to be at that level. And what are you going to do if he has a regression this season like Swanson had last? It’s a definite possibility that you have to be prepared for.
    Albies track record thus far in professional baseball has been tremendous. Prior ot last years injury what he did in the minors at his age was elite. Like top 20 all time elite.
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    Albies had comparable ISO and all-around numbers to Jose Ramirez. He just put up a 6.6 fWAR season.
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    Stretch Oz’s war out over 162 and you get 5+ for both b and fwar. I don’t think it is hard to imagine a some 5-6 war seasons. But we all should be happy with 4 and above.
    Coppy

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