FG's Top 46 Recently Graduated Prospects

[Enscheff]

FG just posted an article ranking the recently graduated prospects, complete with present and future values (PV and FV).

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/rank...ted-prospects/

This is interesting because some teams that didn't have much in the Top 100 prospects have some good value on this list. Unsurprisingly, the Braves are well represented on this list too:

5. Albies 55/65
11. Swanson 45/55
20. Newcomb 45/55
44. Camargo 45/50

For reference, here are what the PVs/FVs mean:



So Albies is currently an above average 2.5 WAR guy, who they are projecting to be an All-Star 4 WAR guy at peak. I agree.

Swanson is a below average player who they project to become an above average regular. I agree.

Newk is a #5 or BP arm who they are projecting to become a MOR SP or a decent closer. I think he will be Oliver Perez.

Camargo is a utility guy who they think can become an average regular. I think he will be a good utility guy rather than a regular..

[thewupk]

So Albies is currently an above average 2.5 WAR guy, who they are projecting to be an All-Star 4 WAR guy at peak.

Swanson is a below average player who they project to become an above average regular.

Newk is a #5 or BP arm who they are projecting to become a MOR SP or a decent closer.

Camargo is a utility guy who they think an become an average regular.

I think those are pretty spot on for what the board consensus would be for those players current value compared to what their upside is.

[thethe]

I think those are pretty spot on for what the board consensus would be for those players current value compared to what their upside is.

Albies is going to be a an absolute stud. 6 WAR player

[thewupk]

Albies is going to be a an absolute stud. 6 WAR player

I think that's his high end upside but his likely upside is a 4 WAR regular all-star type. I don't believe he will have enough power to profile as a consistent 6 WAR player

[thethe]

I think that's his high end upside but his likely upside is a 4 WAR regular all-star type. I don't believe he will have enough power to profile as a consistent 6 WAR player

35+ Doubles 10+ Triples 10-15 homers.

He will have a high average. Not sure if those numbers get him to 6+ WAR but I also expect him to play elite defense for at least 4-5 more years.

[thewupk]

35+ Doubles 10+ Triples 10-15 homers.

He will have a high average. Not sure if those numbers get him to 6+ WAR but I also expect him to play elite defense for at least 4-5 more years.

That profile is roughly league average power as a .300 hitter with a. 166 ISO. The only hitter last year to approach 6 WAR and have a ISO under 200 was Seager who played plus defense at short. @016 you had players like Brandon Crawford, Adam Eaton, and Lindor who also all play plus to elite defense at premium positions. Without good to great power it's really hard for a hitter to get to the 6 WAR level unless you are a primo defender. Maybe Albies is that guy. We'll see.

[Russ2dollas]

Albies is going to be a an absolute stud. 6 WAR player

maybe 6 war if he plays SS. Not sure on 2B.

[thethe]

maybe 6 war if he plays SS. Not sure on 2B.

I just think the kid is going to hit and hit a lot. That power is still developing. There is a non-zero chance that he ends up having a couple of 20+ HR years.

[Carp]

I love the guy, but if he Albies posts more than 1 or 2 seasons of 6 WAR or better, then it's proof that human cloning was developed 21 years and Robbie Alomar was the guinea pig.

You're talking about HOF numbers for a 2 bagger.

[thethe]

I'm talking about Altuve which I don't see why is sacrosanct to think he has a chance to become.

[Enscheff]

I'm talking about Altuve which I don't see why is sacrosanct to think he has a chance to become.

Of course you don’t.

However, most people realize that Altuve had a lower K rate and a higher ISO than Albies throughout his minor league career. People who are able to realize those facts understand that Altuve is an unrealistic comp for Albies.

Everyone else projects Albies to be a 4 win player, tehteh wants him to be a 6 win player.

Everyone else projects Newk to be a 1-2 win pitcher, tehteh wants him to be a 4+ win TOR starter.

And on and on with every single Braves player.

[thewupk]

Of course you don’t.

However, most people realize that Altuve had a lower K rate and a higher ISO than Albies throughout his minor league career. People who are able to realize those facts understand that Altuve is an unrealistic comp for Albies.

Altuve is also like the 1% ceiling for those types of players. His 2014 and 2015 seasons are what you would expect his ceiling and prime to look like not 2016 and 2017.

[thethe]

Of course you don’t.

However, most people realize that Altuve had a lower K rate and a higher ISO than Albies throughout his minor league career. People who are able to realize those facts understand that Altuve is an unrealistic comp for Albies.

Everyone else projects Albies to be a 4 win player, tehteh wants him to be a 6 win player.

Everyone else projects Newk to be a 1-2 win pitcher, tehteh wants him to be a 4+ win TOR starter.

And on and on with every single Braves player.

And most people will realize that Altuve was older than Albies at basically every single stop. People who are able to realize those facts understand that Altuve is a reasonable comp for Albies.

[JCarbo76]

And most people will realize that Altuve was older than Albies at basically every single stop. People who are able to realize those facts understand that Altuve is a reasonable comp for Albies.

Here's the Minor data: Age/League/Iso/OBP-BA. Albies listed first

17 RK FRk .080/.098 ,082/.085
18 A Rk ..074/.149 .058/.036
19 AA/AAA Rk/A- .128/.149 .066/.085
20 AAA A-/A+ .155/.147 .068/.041

Partial Season Major Debut

Ozzie: 224 PA .180 ISO .068 OBP-BA AGE 20, slash line .286/.354/.456
Jose: 234 PA .081 ISO .031 OBP-BA AGE 21, slash line .276/.297/.357

Let's translate: Ozzie played at a higher level than Altuve at every age. At ages 19-20 Ozzie was 2-3 leagues above Altuve and put up comparable, if not better numbers. Looking specifically at age 20 Ozzie put up a slash line of .285/.330/.440 at AAA. Jose, OTOH, put up .301/.357/.448, splitting his season between low and high A.

In his first two full seasons (ages 22 and 23) in MLB, Altuve put up slash lines of .290/.340/.399 and .283/.316/.363. Would anyone here bet against Ozzie bettering those at ages 21 ad 22? I wouldn't. Altuve had a normal power surge at ages 24 and 25, but didn't really blow up until ages 26 and 27.

Thethe is correct is his evaluation.

[Jaw]

Here's the Minor data: Age/League/Iso/OBP-BA. Albies listed first

17 RK FRk .080/.098 ,082/.085
18 A Rk ..074/.149 .058/.036
19 AA/AAA Rk/A- .128/.149 .066/.085
20 AAA A-/A+ .155/.147 .068/.041

Partial Season Major Debut

Ozzie: 224 PA .180 ISO .068 OBP-BA AGE 20, slash line .286/.354/.456
Jose: 234 PA .081 ISO .031 OBP-BA AGE 21, slash line .276/.297/.357

Let's translate: Ozzie played at a higher level than Altuve at every age. At ages 19-20 Ozzie was 2-3 leagues above Altuve and put up comparable, if not better numbers. Looking specifically at age 20 Ozzie put up a slash line of .285/.330/.440 at AAA. Jose, OTOH, put up .301/.357/.448, splitting his season between low and high A.

In his first two full seasons (ages 22 and 23) in MLB, Altuve put up slash lines of .290/.340/.399 and .283/.316/.363. Would anyone here bet against Ozzie bettering those at ages 21 ad 22? I wouldn't. Altuve had a normal power surge at ages 24 and 25, but didn't really blow up until ages 26 and 27.

Thethe is correct is his evaluation.

You should post more often.

[Enscheff]

And most people will realize that Altuve was older than Albies at basically every single stop. People who are able to realize those facts understand that Altuve is a reasonable comp for Albies.

Yeah, no. You’re the only one who thinks he’s a reasonable comp.

[thethe]

Yeah, no. You’re the only one who thinks he’s a reasonable comp.

Thats fine but don't be a pretentious prick when your rationale of Altuves performance in the minor leagues at a higher age than Albies is non nonsensical.

[Skeeter31]

And most people will realize that Altuve was older than Albies at basically every single stop. People who are able to realize those facts understand that Altuve is a reasonable comp for Albies.

As much as I’d love for Albies to become Altuve it’s just not going to happen. He’ll be a great 2B but he’s not going to be at that level. And what are you going to do if he has a regression this season like Swanson had last? It’s a definite possibility that you have to be prepared for.

[thethe]

As much as I’d love for Albies to become Altuve it’s just not going to happen. He’ll be a great 2B but he’s not going to be at that level. And what are you going to do if he has a regression this season like Swanson had last? It’s a definite possibility that you have to be prepared for.

Albies track record thus far in professional baseball has been tremendous. Prior ot last years injury what he did in the minors at his age was elite. Like top 20 all time elite.

[Super]

Albies had comparable ISO and all-around numbers to Jose Ramirez. He just put up a 6.6 fWAR season.