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Thread: The 2018 Midterms

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    Before tomorrow what is breakdown of party control state House and Senate ?

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    Quote Originally Posted by 57Brave View Post
    Before tomorrow what is breakdown of party control state House and Senate ?
    51R-47D-2I in the US Senate and 235R-193D-7 vacant seats in the US House.

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    That is for Minnesota ?

    And how do you think the state legislature will look (along partisan lines) Wednesday morning ?

    I live bordering Fla and Ga and I see no change in either state results. Save governorship's
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    Anyone have any bold predictions? Or even not-bold predictions?

    For most of this cycle I’ve thought that Ds would probably net lose ground in the Senate, because the brutal map (including uninspiring incumbents) and good economy didn’t give them any daylight. As it stands today, I think they’ll hold at 49-51 or even net one seat. Still don’t think they will win it, but there is a non-zero chance, which is better than I rated it before. That would depend on three of TX, TN, NV, AZ flipping while Ds hold all of their seats except ND, where Heitkamp seems done. I think it’s likeliest that 3/4 of those go R, with NV and AZ being the likeliest upsets.

    I think the House is going to be a 35-seat bloodbath.

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    Quote Originally Posted by 57Brave View Post
    That is for Minnesota ?

    And how do you think the state legislature will look (along partisan lines) Wednesday morning ?

    I live bordering Fla and Ga and I see no change in either state results. Save governorship's
    Minnesota's Senate is 33-33 with a special election to decide control. Full Senate is not up for election until 2020. Republican seat but Dems have run a solid candidate who could possibly pull an upset. Minnesota House is 77R-57D. Would take a net gain for the Dems of 11 and while that is possible, it's not likely. They would have to sweep the suburbs and pick up some rural seats and they have not done well in rural Minnesota for quite awhile.

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    Since they have the earliest closing times, Kentucky and Indiana will provide the first real data on the elections. As it happens they have some races that are being heavily contested.

    Kentucky's 6th district (Republican Andy Barr running for re-election) is rated a toss up by Cook Political Report. If the GOP holds this one, could be a sign that they will keep their losses under 30 seats.

    Indiana's 2nd (with Republican Jackie Walorski running for re-election) is rated likely Republican. If this one goes Democratic or is very close it would be a sign of a bad night for the GOP (as in 40+ loss of seats in the House).

    Indiana's 9th (Republican Trey Hollingsworth running for re-election) is rated safe Republican by Cook. If both the 2nd and 9th go Democratic or are very close it could be a very bad night for the GOP (as in 50+ loss of House seats)

    The Indiana Senate race is very close too. The Democrats need the equivalent of an inside straight to win control of the Senate. Losing this seat would eliminate their already slim chances.
    Last edited by nsacpi; 11-06-2018 at 09:45 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Julio3000 View Post
    Anyone have any bold predictions? Or even not-bold predictions?

    For most of this cycle I’ve thought that Ds would probably net lose ground in the Senate, because the brutal map (including uninspiring incumbents) and good economy didn’t give them any daylight. As it stands today, I think they’ll hold at 49-51 or even net one seat. Still don’t think they will win it, but there is a non-zero chance, which is better than I rated it before. That would depend on three of TX, TN, NV, AZ flipping while Ds hold all of their seats except ND, where Heitkamp seems done. I think it’s likeliest that 3/4 of those go R, with NV and AZ being the likeliest upsets.

    I think the House is going to be a 35-seat bloodbath.
    Looks like the late movement in the polls is toward the Dems. I'm guessing 40-50 gain in House seats. But looks like the GOP will win the Senate. McCaskill seems to be in trouble in MO. But there seems to be some late movement toward Beto in TX. I'm guessing the MO race is the one that keeps the Senate in Republican hands. Winning there would give them the margin to lose in the other close races, including TX, and still hold on to the Senate.
    Last edited by nsacpi; 11-06-2018 at 09:40 AM.
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    Sahil Kapur

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    Trump warns in Missouri that "if Democrats gain power on Tuesday, one of their very first projects will be a socialist takeover of health care... The Democrat plan would obliterate Obamacare."

    he's an idiot, thinks his supporters are idiots, and is also legitimately insane.
    i will never stop wondering what on earth people see in this guy.
    "Well, you’ll learn soon enough that this was a massive red wave landslide." - thethe on the 2020 election that trump lost bigly

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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
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    Trump warns in Missouri that "if Democrats gain power on Tuesday, one of their very first projects will be a socialist takeover of health care... The Democrat plan would obliterate Obamacare."

    he's an idiot, thinks his supporters are idiots, and is also legitimately insane.
    i will never stop wondering what on earth people see in this guy.
    he's probably referencing the fact that a lot of Dems have moved toward favoring a single payer system replacing Obamacare
    "I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    he's probably referencing the fact that a lot of Dems have moved toward favoring a single payer system replacing Obamacare
    it still makes no sense
    "Well, you’ll learn soon enough that this was a massive red wave landslide." - thethe on the 2020 election that trump lost bigly

    “I can’t fix my life, but I can fix the world.” - sturg

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    Voter turnout is going to be everything. Excited to get our first real data going into 2020. Not ruling anything out at this point.
    "Donald Trump will serve a second term as president of the United States.

    It’s over."


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    nick wright
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    John Elway endorsed a Supreme Court candidate on Broncos letterhead.

    The owner of the Cardinals endorsed a Supreme Court candidate on their team website.

    The Dolphins just told people how to vote on a specific ballot initiative.

    But Kap brought politics to the NFL.
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    I’m calling Dem wins in 2 of Tennessee, Texas and Arizona, but still end up with only 49 seats (including the two Is)

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    he's probably referencing the fact that a lot of Dems have moved toward favoring a single payer system replacing Obamacare

    Those who would vote based on a favorable view of Obamacare aren’t likely to be opposed to Single Payer.

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    Quote Originally Posted by mqt View Post
    Those who would vote based on a favorable view of Obamacare aren’t likely to be opposed to Single Payer.
    we're talking about trump supporters here.
    "Well, you’ll learn soon enough that this was a massive red wave landslide." - thethe on the 2020 election that trump lost bigly

    “I can’t fix my life, but I can fix the world.” - sturg

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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    we're talking about trump supporters here.
    Still boggles my mind Trump has convinced them the Republicans are the ones that are going to protect pre-existing conditions, after voting like a hundred times to repeal ACA.
    Forever Fredi


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    Kira Lerner
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    I’m at Annistown Elementary School in Snellville, GA,

    where hundreds of voters have waited 4.5 hours

    to vote today because electronic voting machines

    weren’t working
    The best way to stop a bad guy with a gun is to make sure he doesn’t get a gun.

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    After last one I am afraid to watch
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    KY 6th looking good for the Dems with over 40% of the vote in.

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    Florida governor and senate races are still razor thin with 96% of the vote in.
    Go get him!

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