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Thread: Debbie Downer maybe but I just don't see the optimism

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    Quote Originally Posted by 50PoundHead View Post
    Obviously more leftovers on the post-game spread.
    Gohara will have to step up to the plate
    "I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."

    "I am your retribution."

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    Gohara will have to step up to the plate
    Let's not tempt the big fella

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    Connoisseur of Minors zitothebrave's Avatar
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    The Braves are incredibly unlikely to win anything this year. As far as compared to last year there's a bit of a mix bag.

    Address the changes

    LF Acuna vs. Kemp - A push offensively. Kemp provided about league average offense I think Acuna probably starts from that point before evolving past. But I'm confident that Acuna will be a much better overall when defense is factored in and long term it isn't even gonna be close. Acuna could be better this year already but by the time he settles into the leaguehe'll soar past Kemp's Braves production.

    2B Albies vs. Phillips. In his prime Phillips was a power bat, lately he's about a 10 HR per year guy. I think Ozzie can do that. I was concerned with Ozzie's power but as he moved up through the minors his power improved. He hit 6 homers in 244 PA and that is possibly out of the realm of the norm (meaning he may not be a 20 homer per year guy) but I don't think he'll struggle replacing Phillip's power. I think overall they'll be close in terms of offensive production, but while Phillips is a good defender, there's a chance Ozzie could be in Gold Glove contention.

    That's gonna be it for the newbies. You mentioned Adams but Adams's added value came replacing Freeman. If Freeman plays 150 games anything we lost from Adams going away is wiped away 5 fold.

    Let's look at each position vs. Last year

    C - Flowers/Suzuki - Likely to be worst from last year. They played to career high seasons in their platoon. Hope they continue it but I wouldn't bet on it.
    1B - Freeman - Health ultimately is the key. He may be a little down offensively per PA but if he's healthier he'll be a net gain in value for sure.
    SS - Swanson - Gonna improve, expect an uptick in power, BABIP moving up to a marked improvement from a replacement level player to an above average player roughly
    3B - Camargo/Ruiz - Finding the balance here will be key. one is likely to be an OK player. It probably is Camargo. Just a placeholder though. If we get a 1 WAR from 3B I'll be happy.
    CF - Inciarte - Cannot imagine a dropoff here.
    RF - Markakis - Now personally, from what I've seen, I'd stick Acuna in RF and Markaksi in LF so his limited range is not quite as breaking. Will the Braves be smart enough to do that? Who knows. But what I do know is Markakis is going down. What I would like to see is generally speaking Markakis has started off hot and chilled off after the AS break for us. So in the second half of the season I'd like to bring in Peterson and see what happens.
    Stockholm, more densely populated than NYC - sturg

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    So, how does everyone see the lineup setting up?

    CF - Inciarte
    2B - Albies
    1B - Freeman
    C - Flowers/Suzuki
    RF - Markakis
    3B - Camargo
    SS - Swanson
    LF - LAdams

    That's about as mediocre a ML offensive lineup as you will see.

    Of course, Acuna will likely be up quick. But where does he fit? 3rd with Freeman moving to clean up? Clean Up? 5th? 8th?

    As it is the 2018 lineup is too LH. All the RH bats are unproven or old (C).

    If things go right and Riley shows he's ready and Acuna is everything we hope then the 2019 line up will suddenly be too RH, although I think the balance will be better.

    This is going to be an ugly offense.

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    I would bat Markakis 2nd probably. Any event, that is a pretty terrble lineup.

    Inciarte
    Markakis
    Freeman
    Flowers
    Adams?
    Swanson
    Camargo
    Albies?


    Ugh.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    I would bat Markakis 2nd probably. Any event, that is a pretty terrble lineup.

    Inciarte
    Markakis
    Freeman
    Flowers
    Adams?
    Swanson
    Camargo
    Albies?


    Ugh.
    Opening day? Who knows. I suspect a month in and Albies will be hitting 2nd. Neck will continue to regress to a pretty looking average but nothing else to go with it hitter.

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    Yeah that lineup sucks. Once Acuna is up I’d go with this.

    Inciarte
    Albies
    Freeman
    Flowers
    Markakis
    Acuna
    Swanson
    Camargo

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    Quote Originally Posted by Horsehide Harry View Post
    So, how does everyone see the lineup setting up?

    CF - Inciarte
    2B - Albies
    1B - Freeman
    C - Flowers/Suzuki
    RF - Markakis
    3B - Camargo
    SS - Swanson
    LF - LAdams

    That's about as mediocre a ML offensive lineup as you will see.

    Of course, Acuna will likely be up quick. But where does he fit? 3rd with Freeman moving to clean up? Clean Up? 5th? 8th?

    As it is the 2018 lineup is too LH. All the RH bats are unproven or old (C).

    If things go right and Riley shows he's ready and Acuna is everything we hope then the 2019 line up will suddenly be too RH, although I think the balance will be better.

    This is going to be an ugly offense.
    I think you have it pegged. Once Acuna comes in I think he will initially be slotted in the #6 spot behind Markakis.

    I don't think the lineup is too LH. We have RH hitters at catcher, left (Acuna) and short. The two switch hitters (Albies and Camargo) are both stronger from the right side. Two of the three LH hitters (Freeman and Inciarte) hit lefties well. The only one who should occasionally be sat against left-handed pitching is Muk.

    When we upgrade in left (with Acuna moving to right) and third, I think it makes sense that one is a lefty and one is a righty hitter. Or one is a switch hitter. It would not make sense to get two righty hitters or two lefty hitters.
    Last edited by nsacpi; 02-16-2018 at 11:33 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    Opening day? Who knows. I suspect a month in and Albies will be hitting 2nd. Neck will continue to regress to a pretty looking average but nothing else to go with it hitter.
    He gets on base -- at least when we last saw him. That's his greatest talent at this point.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    He gets on base -- at least when we last saw him. That's his greatest talent at this point.
    Still a below average hitter with poor speed. Albies will be a better fit even if he gets on base slightly less.

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    Based on 2018 projections, the lineup optimization tool says (4.453 runs per game):

    Markakis
    Freeman
    Albies
    Flowers
    Acuna
    Inciarte
    Swanson
    Camargo
    Pitcher

    There are many different lineups that produce 4.45+ runs per game. In general, they have:

    - Marakis leading off due to his high OBP
    - Freeman batting 2nd due to being the best overall hitter
    - Albies, Flowers and Acuna in the 3-4-5 spots
    - Inciarte and Swanson in the 6-7 spots
    - Camargo batting 8th
    - Pitcher batting 9th since the Braves don't have a decent OBP guy with zero power to bat 9th.

    I like the optimized lineup. However, common sense tells us the Braves are not going to bat Freeman 2nd, and I think Swanson will handle being pitched around in the 8th slot better than Camargo. Therefore, my lineup would be:

    Markakis
    Albies
    Freeman
    Flowers
    Acuna
    Inciarte
    Camargo
    Swanson
    Pitcher

    But we all know Inciarte will lead off because he's "speedy" (despite his average sprint speed), and Markakis will once again be miscast as a middle of the order hitter and will bat 5th. The lineup WILL be:

    Inciarte
    Albies
    Freeman
    Flowers
    Markakis
    Acuna
    Camargo
    Swanson
    Pitcher
    Last edited by Enscheff; 02-16-2018 at 12:13 PM.

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    Markakis continues to be undervalued. Statheads had it right initially. OBP is tremendously valuable and you know you'll get somewhere around .350 from him.
    Natural Immunity Croc

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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    Markakis continues to be undervalued. Statheads had it right initially. OBP is tremendously valuable and you know you'll get somewhere around .350 from him.
    OBP is more valuable than it shows in OPS but let's not get excited here. Neck is a mid to high 90's WRC+ hitter. There is only so much you can do with that.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Based on 2018 projections, the lineup optimization tool says (4.453 runs per game):

    Markakis
    Freeman
    Albies
    Flowers
    Acuna
    Inciarte
    Swanson
    Camargo
    Pitcher

    There are many different lineups that produce 4.45+ runs per game. In general, they have:

    - Marakis leading off due to his high OBP.
    - Freeman batting 2nd due to being the best overall hitter.
    - Albies, Flowers and Acuna in the 3-4-5 spots
    - Inciarte and Swanson in the 6-7 spots
    - Camargo batting 8th
    - Pitcher batting 9th since the Braves don't have a decent OBP guy with zero power to bat 9th.

    I like the optimized lineup. However, common sense tells us the Braves are not going to bat Freeman 2nd, and I think Swanson will handle being pitched around in the 8th slot better than Camargo. Therefore, my lineup would be:

    Markakis
    Albies
    Freeman
    Flowers
    Acuna
    Inciarte
    Camargo
    Swanson
    Pitcher

    But we all know Inciarte will lead off because he's "speedy" (despite his average sprint speed), and Markakis will once again be miscast as a middle of the order hitter and will bat 5th. The lineup WILL be:

    Inciarte
    Albies
    Freeman
    Flowers
    Markakis
    Acuna
    Camargo
    Swanson
    Pitcher
    The projection systems seem to break down a bit on Inciarte as we have discussed before. Steamer is projecting his OPS this season at .339, even though he has been at .350 and .351 the past two seasons.

    In contract, Steamer projects Muk at .347. Similar to his .346 and .354 of the past two seasons.

    It seems to me both Inciarte and Muk should be projected around .350. If you proceed from that, it makes sense to have Inciarte rather than Muk hit leadoff.
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    The projection systems seem to break down a bit on Inciarte as we have discussed before. Steamer is projecting his OPS this season at .339, even though he has been at .350 and .351 the past two seasons.

    In contract, Steamer projects Muk at .347. Similar to his .346 and .354 of the past two seasons.

    It seems to me both Inciarte and Muk should be projected around .350. If you proceed from that, it makes sense to have Inciarte rather than Muk hit leadoff.
    I could certainly be convinced that Inciarte outperforming his xwOBA is a real skill set he possesses. He checks off all the criteria I've determined contribute to it (average or better speed, batting LHed, evenly spraying batted balls, low FB%).

    If they are essentially equal hitters, and Inciarte is unquestionably the better base runner, I have no real issue with him leading off.

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    the big question is how Freddie will hit without his protector
    "I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."

    "I am your retribution."

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    the big question is how Freddie will hit without his protector
    Kemp cast a Yuge shadow. He protected him from SD before getting here. So it is safe to assume he can still protect him from LA.
    Coppy

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    The projection systems seem to break down a bit on Inciarte as we have discussed before. Steamer is projecting his OPS this season at .339, even though he has been at .350 and .351 the past two seasons.

    In contract, Steamer projects Muk at .347. Similar to his .346 and .354 of the past two seasons.

    It seems to me both Inciarte and Muk should be projected around .350. If you proceed from that, it makes sense to have Inciarte rather than Muk hit leadoff.
    Holy crap, a .339 OPS would be the worst season in the history of baseball lol. I'm confident I could roll out there and post a .400+ OPS lol

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    Quote Originally Posted by BeanieAntics View Post
    Holy crap, a .339 OPS would be the worst season in the history of baseball lol. I'm confident I could roll out there and post a .400+ OPS lol
    I'll take the under on your OPS!

    I stepped in vs ~85 mph a few months ago at the age of 38. I have no idea how I ever handled 90+ mph in college 20 years ago haha.

    I'm not sure I could even put a ball in play vs MLB pitching anymore. My OPS over 100 PAs would quite likely be .050-.100, all based on getting lucky enough to be walked or beaned at the league average walk rate of 8.5%.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    I'll take the under on your OPS!

    I stepped in vs ~85 mph a few months ago at the age of 38. I have no idea how I ever handled 90+ mph in college 20 years ago haha.

    I'm not sure I could even put a ball in play vs MLB pitching anymore. My OPS over 100 PAs would quite likely be .050-.100, all based on getting lucky enough to be walked or beaned at the league average walk rate of 8.5%.
    Enscheff steps in at the plate....

    CLVCLV steps in to throw.....

    Enscheff - take your base, don't charge the mound

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