Debbie Downer maybe but I just don't see the optimism

[Horsehide Harry]

Didn't want to put this in the ST thread because some baseball is better than no baseball, however, I just can't get excited about the 2018 Braves.

Sure you can put the TheThe spin on and look on the bright side. More power to those who can do that.

I guess I'm just more critical.

But the team in 2018 isn't markedly better than the 2017 team was and arguably a significant amount worse.

First, look at the offense. The hope is that Albies, Swanson, Camargo and eventually Acuna will begin to grow up and be big contributors on the offensive side. They better. Because the departure of Phillips, Kemp and MAdams, means they lose 50 HR and 70 2B, all guys with an OPS of at least .752. Add in the expected decline of Markakis and the catching platoon and, even with a full season of Freeman, the offense looks to be no better than it was last year and possibly considerably worse. The talent flow was all one way from an offense standpoint in the offseason.

The defense almost certainly will be better. Hopefully Swanson will start justifying his rep. Albies will likely be as good or better than an aging Phillips. The Camargo/Ruiz platoon likely can't be any worse than Garcia. Freddie and Inciarte will likely be themselves. Catching will probably take a step back and RF almost certainly will. LAdams, as bad as he is in LF, will be better defensively than Kemp but will still likely be bad until Acuna can arrive.

The SP is almost entirely relying on the blossoming of the young kids. Bottom line, they can't struggle but probably will.

The addition of McCarthy and Kazmir likely will be a net minus when compared with the presence of 2017 Dickey and Garcia. You have to hope that Kazmir isn't Colon. Let's hope Teheran bounces back but if he FB continues to decline...

In the pen, it looks to me that untried youth is replacing aging veterans. But, outside of Minter, the hope for a real difference maker looks pretty bleak.

The bench looks like a horrid wasteland of journeymen never-was guys who aren't particularly good at anything but make up for it by being bad offensive players.

And, finally, the minor leagues. Acuna will certainly arrive soon and be a help. Riley, Jackson and Demeritte all are the closest and all likely need at least another year. There's more pitching closer BUT if the offense is as bad as it looks like it will be you have to ask yourself is it worthwhile to burn service time.

Just trying to keep it real...

[thewupk]

The optimism is going to see how our young position players develop. It's a punt year so I'm not expecting the team to win much.

[BeanieAntics]

Yeah I don't really care if we win 70 games or win 80 games, as long as we see the young players develop and show some future potential. I fully expect us to be non-competitive this season so it doesn't bother me if we look unproven. The talent is obviously there and this season should be used to evaluate that talent

[thewupk]

And with that said I see likely overall improvement at 3B, SS, and 2B this year. Likely RF as well once Acuna is up. The only position I see significant regression at is catcher.

[thethe]

And with that said I see likely overall improvement at 3B, SS, and 2B this year. Likely RF as well once Acuna is up. The only position I see significant regression at is catcher.

Starting pitching will improve as well considering we had so much suck from Colon.

[thewupk]

Starting pitching will improve as well considering we had so much suck from Colon.

Yeah he was bad

[Hudson2]

This year will be super fun as far as watching how our players progress. Acuna will make it a ton more exciting alone. This is the year that means so much bc it will set up our future moving forward. We’ll know all we need to know about Riley and if he’s the answer at 3b and what we really have in Wright, Soroka, Allard, Touki, and Anderson among others. It’ll let AA know what he needs to do in the offseason to make us a playoff contender for next year and the next 5 after that.

[nsacpi]

Thematically, 2018 versus 2017 is a case of unproven youth replacing aging veterans. From that it does not necessarily follow that the W-L will improve.

But looking at a position by position comparison:

Catcher--same personnel but will likely get less in 2018

First--Freddie missed time in 2017, so likely we will get more in 2018

2nd--Albies > Phillips

SS--Same player but will probably get more in 2018

3rd--was very poor in 2017...will probably get more in 2018

LF--Acuna > Kemp

CF--push

RF--push

So likely get more at five positions, less at one

Now to the pitching:

Teheran--probably more in 2018

Folty--probably more in 2018

Newcomb--probably more than from Newcomb/Colon in 2017

Gohara--push with Garcia

McCarthy--push with Dickey

Pen--I'm mildly optimistic, but lets say a push

So improvement at three starting pitching spots.

Bottom line. Likely to improve

Bottom bottom line: 80 win team even without fantasy signing of Moose to play third.

[thethe]

Thematically, 2018 versus 2017 is a case of untried youth replacing aging veterans. From that it does not necessarily follow that the W-L will improve.

But looking at a position by position comparison:

Catcher--same personnel but will likely get less in 2018

First--Freddie missed time in 2017, so likely we will get more in 2018

2nd--Albies > Phillips

SS--Same player but will probably get more in 2018

3rd--was very poor in 2017...will probably get more in 2018

LF--Acuna > Kemp

CF--push

RF--push

So likely get more at five positions, less at one

Now to the pitching:

Teheran--probably more in 2018

Folty--probably more in 2018

Newcomb--probably more than from Newcomb/Colon in 2017

Gohara--push with Garcia

McCarthy--push with Dickey

Pen--I'm mildly optimistic, but lets say a push

So improvement a three starting pitching spots.

Bottom line. Likely to improve

Bottom bottom line: 80 win team even with fantasy signing of Moose to play third.

Agree with all of this aside from Gohara vs. Garcia. I think Gohara is ready to produce more than that.

I think we are mid 80's this year depending on if Freeman can be healthy for a whole season.

[nsacpi]

Thematically, 2018 versus 2017 is a case of unproven youth replacing aging veterans. From that it does not necessarily follow that the W-L will improve.

But looking at a position by position comparison:

Catcher--same personnel but will likely get less in 2018

First--Freddie missed time in 2017, so likely we will get more in 2018

2nd--Albies > Phillips

SS--Same player but will probably get more in 2018

3rd--was very poor in 2017...will probably get more in 2018

LF--Acuna > Kemp

CF--push

RF--push

So likely get more at five positions, less at one

Now to the pitching:

Teheran--probably more in 2018

Folty--probably more in 2018

Newcomb--probably more than from Newcomb/Colon in 2017

Gohara--push with Garcia

McCarthy--push with Dickey

Pen--I'm mildly optimistic, but lets say a push

So improvement at three starting pitching spots.

Bottom line. Likely to improve

Bottom bottom line: 80 win team even without fantasy signing of Moose to play third.

I think the positions where we got positive surprises relative to my preseason expectation were left, right and third...Folty also improved a bit more than I expected...those were the major positive surprises...but we also got quite a few other small positive surprises...sum total is a team that outperforms by about 10 games

[Hawk]

The optimism is going to see how our young position players develop.

"Absolutely!" - Hawk, 2015
"Yes!" - Hawk, 2016
"Of course." - Hawk, 2017
"**** it." - Hawk, 2018

[nsacpi]

"Absolutely!" - Hawk, 2015
"Yes!" - Hawk, 2016
"Of course." - Hawk, 2017
"**** it." - Hawk, 2018

We gonna be fun to dance with.

[CJ9]

I’m hoping for the young hitters to grow, young arms to impress in the big leagues, and ultimately lose a lot of games to get another high draft pick. Whether all of those can actually happen at the same time, I’m not sure.

[TheBravos]

If we aren’t making the playoffs...doesn’t matter. We might as well be bad.

[zitothebrave]

The Braves are incredibly unlikely to win anything this year. As far as compared to last year there's a bit of a mix bag.

Address the changes

LF Acuna vs. Kemp - A push offensively. Kemp provided about league average offense I think Acuna probably starts from that point before evolving past. But I'm confident that Acuna will be a much better overall when defense is factored in and long term it isn't even gonna be close. Acuna could be better this year already but by the time he settles into the leaguehe'll soar past Kemp's Braves production.

2B Albies vs. Phillips. In his prime Phillips was a power bat, lately he's about a 10 HR per year guy. I think Ozzie can do that. I was concerned with Ozzie's power but as he moved up through the minors his power improved. He hit 6 homers in 244 PA and that is possibly out of the realm of the norm (meaning he may not be a 20 homer per year guy) but I don't think he'll struggle replacing Phillip's power. I think overall they'll be close in terms of offensive production, but while Phillips is a good defender, there's a chance Ozzie could be in Gold Glove contention.

That's gonna be it for the newbies. You mentioned Adams but Adams's added value came replacing Freeman. If Freeman plays 150 games anything we lost from Adams going away is wiped away 5 fold.

Let's look at each position vs. Last year

C - Flowers/Suzuki - Likely to be worst from last year. They played to career high seasons in their platoon. Hope they continue it but I wouldn't bet on it.
1B - Freeman - Health ultimately is the key. He may be a little down offensively per PA but if he's healthier he'll be a net gain in value for sure.
SS - Swanson - Gonna improve, expect an uptick in power, BABIP moving up to a marked improvement from a replacement level player to an above average player roughly
3B - Camargo/Ruiz - Finding the balance here will be key. one is likely to be an OK player. It probably is Camargo. Just a placeholder though. If we get a 1 WAR from 3B I'll be happy.
CF - Inciarte - Cannot imagine a dropoff here.
RF - Markakis - Now personally, from what I've seen, I'd stick Acuna in RF and Markaksi in LF so his limited range is not quite as breaking. Will the Braves be smart enough to do that? Who knows. But what I do know is Markakis is going down. What I would like to see is generally speaking Markakis has started off hot and chilled off after the AS break for us. So in the second half of the season I'd like to bring in Peterson and see what happens.

[Horsehide Harry]

So, how does everyone see the lineup setting up?

CF - Inciarte
2B - Albies
1B - Freeman
C - Flowers/Suzuki
RF - Markakis
3B - Camargo
SS - Swanson
LF - LAdams

That's about as mediocre a ML offensive lineup as you will see.

Of course, Acuna will likely be up quick. But where does he fit? 3rd with Freeman moving to clean up? Clean Up? 5th? 8th?

As it is the 2018 lineup is too LH. All the RH bats are unproven or old (C).

If things go right and Riley shows he's ready and Acuna is everything we hope then the 2019 line up will suddenly be too RH, although I think the balance will be better.

This is going to be an ugly offense.

[Southcack77]

I would bat Markakis 2nd probably. Any event, that is a pretty terrble lineup.

Inciarte
Markakis
Freeman
Flowers
Adams?
Swanson
Camargo
Albies?


Ugh.

[thewupk]

I would bat Markakis 2nd probably. Any event, that is a pretty terrble lineup.

Inciarte
Markakis
Freeman
Flowers
Adams?
Swanson
Camargo
Albies?


Ugh.

Opening day? Who knows. I suspect a month in and Albies will be hitting 2nd. Neck will continue to regress to a pretty looking average but nothing else to go with it hitter.

[Southcack77]

Opening day? Who knows. I suspect a month in and Albies will be hitting 2nd. Neck will continue to regress to a pretty looking average but nothing else to go with it hitter.

He gets on base -- at least when we last saw him. That's his greatest talent at this point.

[Hudson2]

Yeah that lineup sucks. Once Acuna is up I’d go with this.

Inciarte
Albies
Freeman
Flowers
Markakis
Acuna
Swanson
Camargo