Ventura's Stolen Bases
I would not trade Newk for Renfroe since he has actual value. He’s a 1.5-2 WAR guy in my opinion even with bad walks, and if he even kind of figures walks out you look silly or worse for trading him for Renfroe. Basically it could end up as a less devastating version of the Alex Wood for Olivera deal solely because of the small contracts involved. To me, Newcomb is on Folty’s level of effectiveness right now, so if I wouldn’t trade Folty for the package I’m definitely not trading Newcomb for it since he has more years of control. Heck, projections like Newcomb more than Folty too. I know you dislike Newcomb but still.
Fried is possible to trade for him but has some value. It would not be silly, he has approximately equal value to Renfroe in my opinion. Probably both of them are at a low point in value right now. This one would depend on which Fried you believe in and how much you care about his injury risk, but I think it’s reasonable. I wouldn’t do it because I think he’s likely to look better than he did last year before getting injured, but it would be dependent on scouting which I recognize I’m terrible at.
Sims is fine to trade since he is probably a 1 WAR or a bit less kind of guy. The other guys listed have no value.
Ventura's Stolen Bases
No way am I trading Simmons for Renfroe.
Coppy
Newcomb had the 15th highest BB rate (his weakness) of the 355 pitchers that threw 50+ innings last year.
Renfroe had the 37th highest K rate (his weakness) of the 349 hitters with 200+ PAs last year.
Renfoe was #56 on his list in ISO (his strength), and Newk was #97 on his list in K rate (his strength).
Renfroe is better at his main skill than Newk is at his, and Newk is worse at his main weakness than Renfroe is at his.
Newk for Renfroe is probably pretty even. Both are guys with big tools and pretty significant flaws that they are unlikely to "fix" in a meaningful way.
I still don't think I'd use any notable resources acquiring Renfroe, but let's not talk about him like he's any more flawed than Newcomb just because Newcomb already has that tomahawk across his chest.
Last edited by Enscheff; 02-20-2018 at 01:51 PM.
Managuarantano's Volunteers (02-20-2018)
i feel like that's an extremely disingenuous analysis on renfroe vs newcomb.
of starters with at least 100 IP last year, Newcomb's k-rate was 25th. His BB rate was 2nd-to-last.
of players with at least 250 PA, renfroe was 287/318 in k-rate. 54th in ISO. 267th in BB rate. 296th in OBP. 189th in wRC+. without good defense and *1.5 years older to boot.
i think we'd have a hard time finding analysts to agree that newcomb = renfroe.
Last edited by Super; 02-20-2018 at 01:57 PM.
"Well, you’ll learn soon enough that this was a massive red wave landslide." - thethe on the 2020 election that trump lost bigly
“I can’t fix my life, but I can fix the world.” - sturg
Ventura's Stolen Bases
Look at FIP/XFIP vs WRC and include other aspects of the positions like defense. If it were even, projections wouldn’t love Newcomb and hate Renfroe. I do agree Newcomb is worse in comparison to most pitchers at walking people (especially after your comparison). However, I think 56 WRC is disastrous (like non starter level) and mid 4 FIP/xFIP is 4/5th starter. Not equal value IMO, but think what you like.
In addition, Newcomb was actually useful last year (1.3 WAR) in a more limited time, and Renfroe was about replacement level (.3 WAR). Though I guess it could be a BRef vs Fangraphs thing because BRef has them closer to equal with Newcomb still ahead. I haven’t watched enough of Renfroe to know if his contact is likely to improve, but he is 2 years older than Newcomb.
I wouldn't trade Newk for Renfroe but they aren't that far apart in vlaue imo. Baseball-Ref has a kinder view of his defense and he put up a 0.8 bWAR in about 3/4 of a full season. Newk had 1.1 bWAR in 2/3 of a full season. enscheff is right that we shouldn't trade any meaningful assets for Renfroe. He simply isn't worth it and the Braves should be aiming higher. Now if he could be had for a non asset like Blair then by all means but I doubt that will happen.
If the alternative is Lane Adams and the cost is low it doesn’t hurt.
You could hope for renfroe to get closer to 20% k rate and his BABIP was a bit low.
Kemp isn’t a particularly good comp. Kemp was old, hurt, and the worst defender in baseball.
If you could get renfroe for very little he’d be better than Lane Adams and wouldn’t block anyone.
It’s no more a probable long term solution than signing Maybin but it could help the team on margins without costing anything.
Last edited by Enscheff; 02-20-2018 at 02:17 PM.
"Well, you’ll learn soon enough that this was a massive red wave landslide." - thethe on the 2020 election that trump lost bigly
“I can’t fix my life, but I can fix the world.” - sturg
Renfroe is a guy a team like the Rays would covet. They can't afford an impact player, so they take a flier on a guy who might be a few adjustments away from being an impact player. Worst case scenario they get a non-scrub at a low salary.
The Braves should be able to afford impact players at 3B and LF in 2019. I expect the Braves to field an OF that produces 8+ WAR (fringe Top 10 in MLB) in 2019. Anything less is a failure by the FO.
Last edited by Enscheff; 02-20-2018 at 02:24 PM.
The Braves will have to fill 3B, LF and C in 2019. I am going to assume that Grandal or Flowers is a lock for the opening at C.
I think the Braves will fill LF and 3B with 1 trade and 1 FA signing. Donaldson is certainly a long shot, so the 3B might come as a trade for a guy with 1-2 years remaining (still "saving a spot" for Riley), and LF filled by someone like Cutch.
There are many ways next off season can go down, and I don't think Renfroe is a part of any acceptable ones.
Ventura's Stolen Bases