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Thread: Let's predict who signs the remaining FAs

  1. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    I figure Arrieta is good for about 9 WAR over the next 3 seasons. So $8M/win. About the market rate for this off-season.
    This feels like weird timing for them to sign Arrieta, but I guess they have a lot of money
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    I figure Arrieta is good for about 9 WAR over the next 3 seasons. So $8M/win. About the market rate for this off-season.
    9 war might be a stretch. I am thinking 6 or less.
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    I figure Arrieta is good for about 9 WAR over the next 3 seasons. So $8M/win. About the market rate for this off-season.
    9 wins probably makes you the high man on Arrieta.

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    That hurts the Braves win total.

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    Arrieta’s declining velocity is truly worrisome. I understand the signing but I’m glad we didn’t do it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    That hurts the Braves win total.
    Nah, we gonna smash that clown

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    Not really realistic for Phillies to contend but they are spending much money to at least look like it.

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    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    Not really realistic for Phillies to contend but they are spending much money to at least look like it.
    Dodgers, gnats and Cubs are the Big 3 in the NL. Phillies are one of many who could grab a wild card spot.

    The Marlins are probably the only team definitively out of contention for a WC spot.
    Last edited by nsacpi; 03-11-2018 at 07:07 PM.
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  11. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    Dodgers, gnats and Cubs are the Big 3 in the NL. Phillies are one of many who could grab a wild card spot.

    The Marlins are probably the only team definitively out of contention for a WC spot.
    WC? Maybe. Probably not. Doubtful.

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    Walker to the Stankees. Who got that one.
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    I really don't see how the Phillies are that good. What am I missing? I think they'll be right around us.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesfanMatt View Post
    Walker to the Stankees. Who got that one.
    For 1 year and $5M. Looks like they are going to be able to delay Torres and Andujar without missing much of anything.

    Solid pick up for them, and extremely good value.
    Gausman had a bad walk ratio for us -CrazyTrain 11/20/2018
    BB/9 with Braves: 2.72

    Fried, Newk and a couple other guys for Bumgarner and give him a pay day for 6ish years -CrazyTrain 10/15/18

    I analyzed Teheran's motion. He will be a CYA candidate in 2018-2020, and will be an extension candidate. Do not trade him -GovClintonTyree 12/17/15

    Matt Adams to the Tampa Bay Rays for Jake Odorizzi makes too much sense not to happen -clvclv 10/17/17
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    Quote Originally Posted by Heyward View Post
    3/75 for Arrieta.
    The Arrieta contract is fascinating. It breaks down as:

    2018: $30M guaranteed
    2019: $25M guaranteed

    After the 2019 season, Arrieta can either opt in for:

    2020: $20M guaranteed

    However, if Arrieta opts out, the Phils can counter the opt out by invoking the following 2 year team option:

    2020: $20M guaranteed
    2021: $20M guaranteed

    Both option years go up to $30M based on innings pitched and CYA finishes.

    This is the first time I have seen a contract give a player an opt out, but then also give the team a way to counter the opt out...almost completely nullifying the purpose of the opt out.
    Gausman had a bad walk ratio for us -CrazyTrain 11/20/2018
    BB/9 with Braves: 2.72

    Fried, Newk and a couple other guys for Bumgarner and give him a pay day for 6ish years -CrazyTrain 10/15/18

    I analyzed Teheran's motion. He will be a CYA candidate in 2018-2020, and will be an extension candidate. Do not trade him -GovClintonTyree 12/17/15

    Matt Adams to the Tampa Bay Rays for Jake Odorizzi makes too much sense not to happen -clvclv 10/17/17
    Matt Adams non-tendered by Braves 12/2/17

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  17. #54
    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    The Arrieta contract is fascinating. It breaks down as:

    2018: $30M guaranteed
    2019: $25M guaranteed

    After the 2019 season, Arrieta can either opt in for:

    2020: $20M guaranteed

    However, if Arrieta opts out, the Phils can counter the opt out by invoking the following 2 year team option:

    2020: $20M guaranteed
    2021: $20M guaranteed

    Both option years go up to $30M based on innings pitched and CYA finishes.

    This is the first time I have seen a contract give a player an opt out, but then also give the team a way to counter the opt out...almost completely nullifying the purpose of the opt out.
    the circumstances where Arrieta opts out and the Phillies fail to counter look to be fairly narrow
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    the circumstances where Arrieta opts out and the Phillies fail to counter look to be fairly narrow
    Going into his age 33 season he would almost have to be looking for a 3 year deal worth ~$50M, where the Phils would not be interested in having him for 2/40 or 2/50 (his days of CYA contention are almost certainly over, so getting the options up to $30M per year is not really possible). It would most likely just be a way for Arrieta to force the Phils to add the extra year by opting out.

    If Arrieta could reasonably expect 3/60+ going into his age 33 season (highly unlikely), there's no way the Phils wouldn't keep him at 2/50 (assuming he reached the inning incentives that allowed him to consider opting out for 3/60+).

    The most likely outcome is Arrieta continues to decline as a mid-30s pitcher and simply plays out the 3 guaranteed years before becoming a FA who plays the rest of his career on 1 year deals to fill in rotation holes.
    Gausman had a bad walk ratio for us -CrazyTrain 11/20/2018
    BB/9 with Braves: 2.72

    Fried, Newk and a couple other guys for Bumgarner and give him a pay day for 6ish years -CrazyTrain 10/15/18

    I analyzed Teheran's motion. He will be a CYA candidate in 2018-2020, and will be an extension candidate. Do not trade him -GovClintonTyree 12/17/15

    Matt Adams to the Tampa Bay Rays for Jake Odorizzi makes too much sense not to happen -clvclv 10/17/17
    Matt Adams non-tendered by Braves 12/2/17

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    @Enscheff, serious question: What do you see for the Phils this year? Had a similar over/under as the Braves this year before Arrieta. Do you see them as legit WC contenders with Arrieta?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    @Enscheff, serious question: What do you see for the Phils this year? Had a similar over/under as the Braves this year before Arrieta. Do you see them as legit WC contenders with Arrieta?
    Legit WC contenders in 2018? No.

    Better than the Braves? Yes.

    The Phils are set up with a pretty good young set of players, and much more financial might than the Braves. I expect them to be serious bidders on Harper and Machado this offseason. As the Nats decline the Phils will be on the upswing.

    All the Braves can hope for is that the Phils continue to sign dumb deals like the Santana deal (pushing Hoskins to LF) and waste the financial advantage they have over the Braves. Otherwise it will be hard to compete against a $180M payroll with a $125M payroll.
    Gausman had a bad walk ratio for us -CrazyTrain 11/20/2018
    BB/9 with Braves: 2.72

    Fried, Newk and a couple other guys for Bumgarner and give him a pay day for 6ish years -CrazyTrain 10/15/18

    I analyzed Teheran's motion. He will be a CYA candidate in 2018-2020, and will be an extension candidate. Do not trade him -GovClintonTyree 12/17/15

    Matt Adams to the Tampa Bay Rays for Jake Odorizzi makes too much sense not to happen -clvclv 10/17/17
    Matt Adams non-tendered by Braves 12/2/17

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    Orioles close to a deal with Alex Cobb, in range of 3 yrs, 50 million.

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    Woo Hoo

    Got another...

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    Bowden- The reality is that the #Braves #Diamondbacks & #Cardinals have all touched base with Boras Corp regarding their client Greg Holland. At this point NONE of them feel like they can be competitive financially based on the “range” being asked for. Holland should take best offer.

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