Projecting the Braves in 2019+

[Southcack77]

90 wins on the expected win curve is purgatory?

ok

It genuinely is an amusingly morose post.

I like how the Braves are entirely filling their roster from within through 2021 but are only acquiring one significant free agent (the decline years Donaldson for some reason) and are trading away the rest of their farm system for nothing of any value.

Evidently, they are drafting really poorly too. And making bad decisions on extending players because that's a certainty.

[nsacpi]

It genuinely is an amusingly morose post.

I like how the Braves are entirely filling their roster from within through 2021 but are only acquiring one significant free agent (the decline years Donaldson for some reason) and are trading away the rest of their farm system for nothing of any value.

Evidently, they are drafting really poorly too. And making bad decisions on extending players because that's a certainty.

I guess all of those elaborate trade proposals Harry has been concocting are for the purpose of keeping us from the purgatory of a run of 90 win seasons. Now it is starting to make some sense.

[Horsehide Harry]

So you guys are OK with being the Pirates?

The Braves don't have the money to play at the table for Premium Free Agents. That has been shown. Unless that changes, then you are only getting 2-3 WAR guys through FA which likely replaces one of the existing 2-3 WAR guys that I projected from within (which means the prospect didn't pan out).

The point is that they haven't created the waves of talent that it takes to really be competitive from within. They created a very good farm but not a GREAT farm, especially now that they lost all the IFA as penalty.

Baseball purgatory is where your team is good enough to look like they will have a chance, but not really. They aren't bad enough to have to rebuild, not good enough to really win anything.

90 wins typically wins you nothing except a possible shot at a one and done WC appearance.

[nsacpi]

So you guys are OK with being the Pirates?

The Braves don't have the money to play at the table for Premium Free Agents. That has been shown. Unless that changes, then you are only getting 2-3 WAR guys through FA which likely replaces one of the existing 2-3 WAR guys that I projected from within (which means the prospect didn't pan out).

The point is that they haven't created the waves of talent that it takes to really be competitive from within. They created a very good farm but not a GREAT farm, especially now that they lost all the IFA as penalty.

Baseball purgatory is where your team is good enough to look like they will have a chance, but not really. They aren't bad enough to have to rebuild, not good enough to really win anything.

90 wins typically wins you nothing except a possible shot at a one and done WC appearance.

I'm ok having a team around 90 on the win curve...of course the longer the window the better

[thethe]

I can't wait till 19 and further. That's when we are really going to see the results of this arm first philosophy. The starting staff possibilities for opening day 2019 are endless.

[Knucksie]

I can’t believe you took the time and typed all that out.

Then look 3 posts below yours!

[Enscheff]

I can't wait till 19 and further. That's when we are really going to see the results of this arm first philosophy. The starting staff possibilities for opening day 2019 are endless.

No hyperbole here at all folks!

[Enscheff]

In all seriousness, I have the Braves projected 2019 payroll roughly as follows (arb salaries are my own bad projections):

1 C
2 1B Freeman $21.00
3 2B Albies $0.55
4 3B
5 SS Swanson $0.55
6 LF Acuna $0.55
7 CF Inciarte $5.00
8 RF

9 SP1 Teheran $11.00
10 SP2 Folty $5.00
11 SP3 Soroka $0.55
12 SP4 Newk $0.55
13 SP5 Gohara $0.55

14 BN1
15 BN2
16 BN3
17 BN4
18 BN5

19 BP1 Viz $6.00
20 BP2 Minter $0.55
21 BP3 Freeman $2.00
22 BP4 Brothers $2.00
23 BP5
24 BP6
25 BP7

Total: $56M

Assuming they bump payroll into the $120M range for 2019, that leaves $60M+ to spend.

It's fairly safe to assume ~$10M is going to one of Flowers or Grandal, so the Braves will have $50M+ to spend on LF, 3B, the bench, and 1-2 BP spots if they aren't all filled internally (they won't be).

That's easily enough cash to make a run at Donaldson, and also sign an OFer in the Blackmon/Pollock/Cutch range. Whatever cash remains can be used to fill in the bench around Camargo and Tucker.

[Jaw]

It sounds like you guys are much less optimistic than one of the guys at Talking Chop:

https://www.talkingchop.com/2018/3/8...19-atlanta-mlb

Some high(low?)lights:

Hypothetically, let’s say the Braves decide that their cap for spending will go up from around the $110M-$115M mark it has been in recent years to last year’s league average mark of $152,596,848. This would mean that Atlanta could have nearly $72M to spend on free agents should they choose to do so
....
This payroll flexibility opens a plethora of options for the Braves including the possibility of signing current NL East rival Bryce Harper who will most likely become the highest paid player in history
....
Machado is projected to pull in a deal slightly less than what Harper is projected to receive at around a 12-year deal worth at least $300M and it would be interesting to see if the Braves would decide to go all in to have two MVP caliber corner infielders with Freeman already holding down first base. The other logical option is to go with a player more familiar with new Braves GM Alex Anthopolous in Josh Donaldson. Donaldson is definitely an older option at age 33 and could come at a lesser price because of that. If the Braves are looking to add to the team in more than one position Donaldson is the type of player they would consider.
....
the Braves could decide to fortify their bullpen for a Postseason run with big time closers like Andrew Miller and former Brave Craig Kimbrel hitting the open market.



They posted this about three and a half weeks too early.

[Enscheff]

$150M payroll in 2019? I’ll take the under haha.

Typically terrible non-Ivan “content” from TC.

[Russ2dollas]

In all seriousness, I have the Braves projected 2019 payroll roughly as follows (arb salaries are my own bad projections):

1 C
2 1B Freeman $21.00
3 2B Albies $0.55
4 3B
5 SS Swanson $0.55
6 LF Acuna $0.55
7 CF Inciarte $5.00
8 RF

9 SP1 Teheran $11.00
10 SP2 Folty $5.00
11 SP3 Soroka $0.55
12 SP4 Newk $0.55
13 SP5 Gohara $0.55

14 BN1
15 BN2
16 BN3
17 BN4
18 BN5

19 BP1 Viz $6.00
20 BP2 Minter $0.55
21 BP3 Freeman $2.00
22 BP4 Brothers $2.00
23 BP5
24 BP6
25 BP7

Total: $56M

Assuming they bump payroll into the $120M range for 2019, that leaves $60M+ to spend.

It's fairly safe to assume ~$10M is going to one of Flowers or Grandal, so the Braves will have $50M+ to spend on LF, 3B, the bench, and 1-2 BP spots if they aren't all filled internally (they won't be).

That's easily enough cash to make a run at Donaldson, and also sign an OFer in the Blackmon/Pollock/Cutch range. Whatever cash remains can be used to fill in the bench around Camargo and Tucker.

I think Viz will get traded.

I think Riley will be at 3B or RF. Bold prediction. Bold on the RF part.

I think they spend big on either 3B or RF.

Lots of extensions. Most of those <1 M salaries turn into extension guys.

We also likely make one big trade.

[Hudson2]

They will have the money to go after Donaldson and possibly Blackmon along with the pieces to get Fulmer or Archer. Lots of options