Extending Gohara, Soroka and maybe Wright

[Enscheff]

Due to pitcher aging curves and injury concerns, I've always had a couple of rules when it comes to guaranteeing money to pitchers:

1. Stick to 1-2 year deals on FA pitchers.
2. Don't guarantee money to home grown pitchers into their 30s.

Because of those rules, and their current ages, pitchers like Folty (controlled through age 29) and Newk (controlled through age 30) are not considered extension candidates.

However, young pitchers like Teheran, Soroka, Gohara and maybe Wright are (or were) young enough that guaranteeing them money through their mid/late 20s is worth gaining options over FA years in their late 20s.

MLBTR lists the record extension for pre-arb pitchers: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/...bitration.html

These 5+2 deals always tend to be as follows:

- After a SP has 2+ years service time
- Buys out 1 pre-arb year, all 3 arb years, 1 FA year, and 2 options over FA years
- Total guarantee around $30M-$40M by the time these guys need to be addressed

These 5+2 deals are structured like this because it is a huge risk to guarantee money to pitchers, so the club requires additional control over 3 FA seasons at bargain rates as compensation for assuming that risk.

In the case of Gohara, he will have 2+ years of service time after his age 22 season in 2019. A typical 5+2 extension with him will cost something along the lines of 5/35 with 2 options priced around $15M. The contract would break down roughly as follows (more expensive if he turns into a CY award pitcher like Sale or Kluber):

2020 (PA 3), age 23, $1M guaranteed
2021 (Arb 1), age 24, $4M guaranteed
2022 (Arb 2), age 25, $7M guaranteed
2023 (Arb 3), age 26, $10M guaranteed
2024 (FA 1), age 27, $13M guaranteed
2025 (FA 2), age 28, $15M option, $1M buyout
2026 (FA 3), age 29, $16M option, $1M buyout

That puts Gohara on the FA market in time for his age 30 season.

Soroka is a year younger than Gohara, and is expected to make his MLB debut late this year. A similarly structured extension could be worked out with him following his age 22 season in 2020.

Wright is a slightly different case due to being older. He will most likely start his age 22 season in 2018 at AA. He may be ready for MLB action late this season, putting him on the same service time track as Soroka...but 2 years older. In that scenario, the Braves will already control Wright's age 23-28 seasons, and the 5+2 extension following the 2020 season may or may not make sense. If he doesn't debut until the middle of the 2019 season at the age of 23, the Braves already control his age 24-29 seasons, and the 5+2 extension probably doesn't make sense (adding control over his age 30-32 seasons).

Or they just get hurt and none of this matters.

Hopefully it all works out and the Braves are able to lock in the ~10 win Gohara/Wright/Soroka core of the rotation at bargain rates through 2026/2027...at which point they will be due to renegotiate their TV deal.

[Russ2dollas]

Well thought out.

I think this is what the Braves should spend their money on. Stay with the farm. Extend good players and spread risk. Allow players over 30 to go.

Fill your holes in the line up with high annual value deals so that you can get a shorter term on the deal. Players that do not want extensions should be dealt when they have 2-3 years of control remaining.

I just do not believe we will spend the money next year on big name guys. I think they'll sign one Adam Jones type guy and the rest will be extensions to the young pitchers, Acuna, Albies, Swanson, etc. They will do something mid level at catcher.

[nsacpi]

Getting two options years is what really makes these deals work from the team perspective. The options reduce the downside (from injury etc) while offering substantial upside to the team. Given performance/injury risk of pitchers in their early 30s, I think this kind of deal works even with someone like Wright who might get to the majors at a later age and would have those option years cover his age 30-31 seasons.

[Bravesfannchar]

Due to pitcher aging curves and injury concerns, I've always had a couple of rules when it comes to guaranteeing money to pitchers:

1. Stick to 1-2 year deals on FA pitchers.
2. Don't guarantee money to home grown pitchers into their 30s.

Because of those rules, and their current ages, pitchers like Folty (controlled through age 29) and Newk (controlled through age 30) are not considered extension candidates.

However, young pitchers like Teheran, Soroka, Gohara and maybe Wright are (or were) young enough that guaranteeing them money through their mid/late 20s is worth gaining options over FA years in their late 20s.

MLBTR lists the record extension for pre-arb pitchers: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/...bitration.html

These 5+2 deals always tend to be as follows:

- After a SP has 2+ years service time
- Buys out 1 pre-arb year, all 3 arb years, 1 FA year, and 2 options over FA years
- Total guarantee around $30M-$40M by the time these guys need to be addressed

These 5+2 deals are structured like this because it is a huge risk to guarantee money to pitchers, so the club requires additional control over 3 FA seasons at bargain rates as compensation for assuming that risk.

In the case of Gohara, he will have 2+ years of service time after his age 22 season in 2019. A typical 5+2 extension with him will cost something along the lines of 5/35 with 2 options priced around $15M. The contract would break down roughly as follows (more expensive if he turns into a CY award pitcher like Sale or Kluber):

2020 (PA 3), age 23, $1M guaranteed
2021 (Arb 1), age 24, $4M guaranteed
2022 (Arb 2), age 25, $7M guaranteed
2023 (Arb 3), age 26, $10M guaranteed
2024 (FA 1), age 27, $13M guaranteed
2025 (FA 2), age 28, $15M option, $1M buyout
2026 (FA 3), age 29, $16M option, $1M buyout

That puts Gohara on the FA market in time for his age 30 season.

Soroka is a year younger than Gohara, and is expected to make his MLB debut late this year. A similarly structured extension could be worked out with him following his age 22 season in 2020.

Wright is a slightly different case due to being older. He will most likely start his age 22 season in 2018 at AA. He may be ready for MLB action late this season, putting him on the same service time track as Soroka...but 2 years older. In that scenario, the Braves will already control Wright's age 23-28 seasons, and the 5+2 extension following the 2020 season may or may not make sense. If he doesn't debut until the middle of the 2019 season at the age of 23, the Braves already control his age 24-29 seasons, and the 5+2 extension probably doesn't make sense (adding control over his age 30-32 seasons).

Or they just get hurt and none of this matters.

Hopefully it all works out and the Braves are able to lock in the ~10 win Gohara/Wright/Soroka core of the rotation at bargain rates through 2026/2027...at which point they will be due to renegotiate their TV deal.

Great post. Enjoy reading insightful posts like these.

[TheBravos]

If Gohara, Soroka and Wright are all extension worthy....the rebuild thru pitching would be a HUGE success.

You have to think between just Newk, Folty, Weigel, Sims, Allard and Touki...there is a #5 in there (even if you went and traded or signed a #4 or even resigned Julio). That’s not even including the wave behind that (Anderson, Wilson, Wentz, etc.

Question: Was Soroka really throwing as hard as was mentioned the other day or was the gun off??

[Enscheff]

If Gohara, Soroka and Wright are all extension worthy....the rebuild thru pitching would be a HUGE success.

You have to think between just Newk, Folty, Weigel, Sims, Allard and Touki...there is a #5 in there (even if you went and traded or signed a #4 or even resigned Julio). That’s not even including the wave behind that (Anderson, Wilson, Wentz, etc.

Question: Was Soroka really throwing as hard as was mentioned the other day or was the gun off??

I’ve heard 94-96 pretty consistently, so I think it’s accurate to within the usual “rounding up” error we always see on tv guns.

The question accurately brought up by mistake7 is whether he can sustain that velocity, or are we seeing his 1-2 inning burst?

[TheBravos]

I’ve heard 94-96 pretty consistently, so I think it’s accurate to within the usual “rounding up” error we always see on tv guns.

The question accurately brought up by mistake7 is whether he can sustain that velocity, or are we seeing his 1-2 inning burst?

If he “can” sustain it (which would not be out of the realm of possibility). I have a complete different outlook on him. With his IQ...#2 easily.

[Hudson2]

Soroka def has TOR stuff written all over him. If Wright takes that next step then our rotation is in excellent shape moving forward.

[Jaw]

Gohara seems like a questionable extension candidate to me. Giving a large chunk of guaranteed money to someone with perennial conditioning concerns is an additional risk. I assume the team has a good enough grasp on his character and work ethic to decide if that risk is reasonable or not, but we certainly do not. I can confidently say that I would have been a train wreck with that much money at that age.

[Southcack77]

I’ve heard 94-96 pretty consistently, so I think it’s accurate to within the usual “rounding up” error we always see on tv guns.

The question accurately brought up by mistake7 is whether he can sustain that velocity, or are we seeing his 1-2 inning burst?

K. McDaniel seemed to indicate his sinker usually sits in lower 90s, but can pop higher. I wouldn't expect the 96 to be the average.

[Enscheff]

K. McDaniel seemed to indicate his sinker usually sits in lower 90s, but can pop higher. I wouldn't expect the 96 to be the average.

What part of saying "94-96" suggests anyone thinks 96 is the average?

[Southcack77]

What part of saying "94-96" suggests anyone thinks 96 is the average?

Let me rephrase: K. McDaniel said Soroka usually sits in the lower 90s, so I wouldn't expect 94-96 to be the average. I think he's probably throwing hard in short stint.

[Enscheff]

Let me rephrase: K. McDaniel said Soroka usually sits in the lower 90s, so I wouldn't expect 94-96 to be the average. I think he's probably throwing hard in short stint.

You’re probably right. It’s unlikely Soroka is suddenly going to throw a 70 grade sinker over 6+ innings.

It’s just nice to finally be talking about a Braves pitcher improving his stuff rather than how they always seem to be losing stuff.

[BeanieAntics]

You’re probably right. It’s unlikely Soroka is suddenly going to throw a 70 grade sinker over 6+ innings.

It’s just nice to finally be talking about a Braves pitcher improving his stuff rather than how they always seem to be losing stuff.

Even if Soroka is more in the 93-95 range (or even 92-94 really), with the bite that sinker has and with his intelligence/makeup I think he has a chance to be very very good. That may relegate him to being a really good 3 or an average 2, but I'm starting to regard him as one of the safest 20 year old pitching prospects that I have seen. There isn't another pitching prospect in baseball that I would give a better chance to stick in a rotation long term in some capacity.

[bravesfanMatt]

Gohard, who just recovered from a bad hammy, sprained his ankle today. X-ray pending. Dude might just be too fragile to ink to much of a deal.

[Enscheff]

Gohard, who just recovered from a bad hammy, sprained his ankle today. X-ray pending. Dude might just be too fragile to ink to much of a deal.

Conditioning/durability was his main risk. Let's hope it's just a sprain.

Either way, this pretty much sinks any chance of him being on the roster opening day.

[Garmel]

Gohard, who just recovered from a bad hammy, sprained his ankle today. X-ray pending. Dude might just be too fragile to ink to much of a deal.

With his conditioning/constant health issues I think he will end up in the bullpen.

[Braves1976]

The radio broadcast just said they'll reevaluate his sprained ankle when the swelling goes down. They mentioned doing so two weeks from now and said he might not be ready till May.

[Enscheff]

A typical ankle sprain keeps a pitcher out for about a month, including rehab time. Gohara hasn’t even started building up his pitch count this year.

It will take him 2-3 weeks to heal, then 3-4 weeks in AAA to build up his pitch count.

That’s late April at the very earliest, so May is probably more realistic.

[nsacpi]

on the bright side it will limit his innings increase this year and the risk of arm injury that goes with a big increase

and if they option him down to build up arm strength it might get us back that extra year of control