Economics Thread

[thethe]

What a terribly misleading graphic and of course the BL knows this when posting it.

[nsacpi]

What's misleading about it.

The economy has roared back in a way it never has from a recession.

It reflects very aggressive use of fiscal policy. The results should put to bed any doubts about the efficacy of fiscal policy.

Of course, it was poorly calibrated. Too big. The $1.9 trillion package passed in early 2021 should have been about half that size. It would have given us much of the benefit in terms of growth but with less of the inflation.

After the 2008 recession, we made the opposite mistake. Not enough fiscal stimulus. As a result it took almost a decade to recover to pre-recession employment levels.

[Tapate50]

Is it a recession recovery if it was self inflicted?

Pre pandemic levels isn’t much of a feather in the cap?

There are still what 6 million unfilled jobs with 13 million unemployed ?

[nsacpi]

Pre pandemic levels isn’t much of a feather in the cap?

Is your criticism that we haven't returned to pre-pandemic levels of employment fast enough?

[Jaw]

Yeah it's weird how some are so eager to ignore that lots of the unemployment was due to businesses forced to close or employees forced to quit because their kids school was closed. It almost seems disingenuous.

[sturg33]

Yeah it's weird how some are so eager to ignore that lots of the unemployment was due to businesses forced to close or employees forced to quit because their kids school was closed. It almost seems disingenuous.

Take it easy on dumb naive liberals... They believe what they are told with no critical thinking.

Also, if the Atlanta fed q2 forecast (-1.9%) is accurate, we are currently in a recession

[nsacpi]

Yeah it's weird how some are so eager to ignore that lots of the unemployment was due to businesses forced to close or employees forced to quit because their kids school was closed. It almost seems disingenuous.

OK. An asterisk will be duly added to reflect the man-made and viral-made nature of this past recession. Btw I'm not aware of any other recession that was not man-made in some way. But each one does have its unique characteristics. The one in 2001 was deepened by 9-11. While the shutdown of the economy post 9-11 was less in duration and directly affected fewer sectors of the economy, it is the one that has some features in common. It is worth noting it took longer to regain the jobs lost during the 2001 recession than during the much more severe 2020 recession. About twice as long.

[Jaw]

Man made does not mean self inflicted, kinda like how all thumbs are fingers but not all fingers are thumbs. 9/11 was not self inflicted, unless you're one of those inside job guys.

[sturg33]

The government forced people to lose their jobs.

The government printed ungodly amounts of money

The government lowered interest rates to zero

Now, the government so mercifully "allowed" people to work again. How kind of them. But our money is worth 20% less and the fed is hitting the gas on interest rates to slow that problem down... And that will essentially guarantee a recession if not stagflation

Nsacpi gets his software from Larry summers and Paul Krugman and we should be able to understand why he is as stupid as he is

[nsacpi]

Man made does not mean self inflicted, kinda like how all thumbs are fingers but not all fingers are thumbs. 9/11 was not self inflicted, unless you're one of those inside job guys.

There was an exogeneous event in both cases. An epidemic (which has killed over 1 million Americans so far) and a terrorist attack (which killed almost 3,000). And a policy response. As well as spontaneous changes in behavior by the public and by businesses. But if you want to argue that somehow the speed of the recovery of jobs should be discounted due to bad policy in 2020 be my guest. It shouldn't be that hard. Paul Romer, for example, was arguing throughout 2020 in favor of policy alternatives that would allow us to avoid having to make the awful choice between lives and livelihoods.

NB: Paul Romer is an academic and expert with the usual dodgy credentials including a Nobel Prize in economics

[thethe]

People lost their jobs because of actual systemic economic issues not because people were little bitches and wanted to stay home because of a flu.

[thethe]

The only reason jobs were lost was because the government said people had to stay home and avoid a super scary flu.

The only reason jobs are returning is because the government said people can leave their house since the super scary flu was a dud.

[sturg33]

The only reason jobs were lost was because the government said people had to stay home and avoid a super scary flu.

The only reason jobs are returning is because the government said people can leave their house since the super scary flu was a dud.

You just know that the lecturing buffoon doesn't wear his mask anymore after daddy government gave him permission to take it off

[nsacpi]

Nsacpi gets his software from Larry summers and Paul Krugman

there is also a little Greg Mankiw and Paul Romer in the secret sauce

[nsacpi]

[sturg33]

So healthy

[nsacpi]

So healthy

These series are pretty volatile month to month. I'm sure zero hedge shared last month's numbers when they came out but on the slight chance he didnt:

full-time: +733K
part-time: -325K
multiple: -237K

The net for the past two months:

full-time: +581K
part-time: -651K
multimple: +2K

Looking at the numbers compared to a year ago (June 2021)

full-time: +6,437K (over 500K per month!)
part-time: -48K
multiple: +448K

btw i'm not sure multiple jobs are a problem...it is a feature of the gig economy that has emerged in recent decades and seems to suit and benefit many workers

[sturg33]

Thanks for the data. Half a million people working multiple jobs more than last year.

Inflation is the most evil tax hike there is

[nsacpi]

Multiple job holders as % of total employed:

June 2017 4.8%
June 2018 4.9%
June 2019 5.2%
June 2022 4.8%

[sturg33]

I agree that this is the best economy in history as the diversity hire explained yesterday