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Thread: Economics Thread

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    Shift Leader thethe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Julio3000 View Post
    I’m not sure what credible information leads you to believe that’s the choice.
    The curve has been destroyed. Large percentages of people have drastically changed their movement patterns the past 3 weeks all across the country and the world. From time a host contracts the virus to a potential death is a 3-4 week process. Therefore, we have destroyed a majority of the virus. Staying in for another month is a death sentence for the economy and all studies have shown that depressions cause huge amount of despair and death.
    Natural Immunity Croc

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    I <3 Ron Paul + gilesfan sturg33's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Julio3000 View Post
    I’m not sure what credible information leads you to believe that’s the choice.
    There's been several studies showing higher mortality rates during recession. The data isn't great though so best not to claim as fact.

    However, when people are broke, they dont buy medicine they need, they dont buy healthy food, they turn to alcohol and drugs, they have relationship problems, etc. Business who make hospital equipment cant afford to keep going, etc etc.

    We are seeing a confirmed spike in domestic abuses cases already today.

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    It's OVER 5,000! 57Brave's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sturg33 View Post
    The median household income of this country is 688% of the median household income of the world.

    If americans are mainly poor, how would we describe the rest of the world?
    **** hole countries --- you didnt hear

  4. #1404
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    Quote Originally Posted by 57Brave View Post
    **** hole countries --- you didnt hear
    I guess my question is, who is NOT mainly poor?

  5. #1405
    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
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    There is an economist named Anna Scherbina who has looked at the cost-benefit of all this.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/31/b...omy-trump.html

    Outside economists have been pumping out analyses on the optimal length of a shutdown almost daily. One that has been shared with officials inside the White House comes from Anna Scherbina, an author of the 2019 study who is now an economist at Brandeis University and the American Enterprise Institute.

    It seeks to determine the optimal length of a national suppression of economic activity, which Ms. Scherbina does not define precisely in the paper. In an interview, she said it would encompass school closures, shutting down many businesses and the sort of stay-at-home orders that many, but not all, states have imposed.

    “What it entails is something as drastic as you can get,” Ms. Scherbina said. In the United States right now, she added, “we don’t have it everywhere.”

    Ms. Scherbina’s paper evaluates the trade-offs involved in slowing the economy to fight the spread of the virus by, as the paper puts it, “balancing its incremental benefits against the enormous costs the suppression policy imposes on the U.S. economy.”

    In a best-case scenario, Ms. Scherbina concludes, a national suppression of economic activity to flatten the infection curve must last at least seven weeks. In a worst case, where the shutdown proves less effective at slowing the rate of new infections, it would be economically optimal to keep the economy shuttered for nearly eight months.

    Suppression efforts inflict considerable damage on the economy, reducing activity by about $36 billion per week, the study estimates. Ms. Scherbina said the optimal durations would remain largely unchanged even if the weekly damage was twice that high.

    But the efforts would save nearly two million lives when compared with a scenario in which the government did nothing to suppress the economy and the spread of the virus, Ms. Scherbina estimates, because doing nothing would impose a $13 trillion cost to the economy — equal to about two-thirds of the amount of economic activity that the United States was projected to generate this year before the virus struck.

    Ms. Scherbina based her estimates on the models she built when she was a senior economist at the Council of Economic Advisers and an author of the September paper, “Mitigating the Impact of Pandemic Influenza Through Vaccine Innovation,” which warned of potentially catastrophic death tolls and economic damage from a pandemic flu in the United States.

    “I accumulated all this knowledge, and then coronavirus came up,” Ms. Scherbina said in a telephone interview. “So I thought, I should put it to use.”


    unfortunately there is a crucial paragraph in this article that is poorly edited and makes no sense...shame on the NY Times

    I've tried to find links to Scherbina's work on this but nothing. She should put it up somewhere.
    Last edited by nsacpi; 04-02-2020 at 10:21 AM.
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    well I found this on her Brandeis page

    Scherbina, Anna. "Determining the Optimal Duration of the COVID-19 Suppression Policy: A Cost-Benefit Analysis.

    but no linky

    i sent her an email
    Last edited by nsacpi; 04-02-2020 at 10:27 AM.
    "I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."

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  7. #1407
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    well I found this on her Brandeis page

    Scherbina, Anna. "Determining the Optimal Duration of the COVID-19 Suppression Policy: A Cost-Benefit Analysis.

    but no linky

    i sent her an email
    I think its dangerous to have this as conclusive (not saying you are thinking this) since we don't know enough yet about the virus. Until we have antibody testing we are all just guessing
    Natural Immunity Croc

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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    I think its dangerous to have this as conclusive (not saying you are thinking this) since we don't know enough yet about the virus. Until we have antibody testing we are all just guessing
    well decision making takes place in the context of uncertainty...you look at the ex ante distribution of probabilities...that's the best you can do in real time
    "I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."

    "I am your retribution."

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    Professor Scherbina was kind enough to provide this link to her paper:

    https://www.aei.org/research-product...efit-analysis/
    "I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."

    "I am your retribution."

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    It's OVER 5,000! cajunrevenge's Avatar
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    over 10 million lost their jobs in the last 2 weeks. Tired of winning yet?
    "Donald Trump will serve a second term as president of the United States.

    It’s over."


    Little Thethe Nov 19, 2020.

  11. #1411
    I <3 Ron Paul + gilesfan sturg33's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cajunrevenge View Post
    over 10 million lost their jobs in the last 2 weeks. Tired of winning yet?
    Of all terrible takes these are easily the worst

  12. #1412
    It's OVER 5,000! cajunrevenge's Avatar
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    Clearly you are just biased against me. My take was perfect. Everyone says so.
    "Donald Trump will serve a second term as president of the United States.

    It’s over."


    Little Thethe Nov 19, 2020.

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    Natural Immunity Croc

  14. #1414
    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cajunrevenge View Post
    Clearly you are just biased against me. My take was perfect. Everyone says so.
    I've read your take several times. I've never seen such a perfect take. And it would have been even more perfect if other people were not trying to distract you.

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    It's OVER 5,000! cajunrevenge's Avatar
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    What a beautiful thing to say. I know more about economics than..... probably anyone in history.... ever. If it wasnt for the fake posters around here everyone would say so. My inbox is just full of posters asking why Sturg hates Chopcountry so much.
    "Donald Trump will serve a second term as president of the United States.

    It’s over."


    Little Thethe Nov 19, 2020.

  16. #1416
    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
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    You just have a natural talent and ability that maybe makes other people jealous. Maybe. But when this thing lifts and goes away like a miracle people will stop being so scared and angry and see how perfect your takes are. I give you and your takes a 10.

  17. #1417
    if my thought dreams could be seen goldfly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    remember these posts and tweets

    when they say all life is precious
    "For there is always light, if only we are brave enough to see it. If only we are brave enough to be it." Amanda Gorman

    "When Fascism comes to America, it will be wrapped in the flag and carrying a cross"

  18. #1418
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    Quote Originally Posted by goldfly View Post
    remember these posts and tweets

    when they say all life is precious
    You could exact extreme measures to reduce mortality of anything. Restrict types of food to be produced. Not allow car travel.

    We don't do those things for other methods.

    To shut down an economy for a virus that appears to be much less fatal than previous thought was the wrong decision.

    Wear masks. Take the Palnequil and Zpack and lets go back to work.
    Natural Immunity Croc

  19. #1419
    if my thought dreams could be seen goldfly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sturg33 View Post
    The median household income of this country is 688% of the median household income of the world.

    If americans are mainly poor, how would we describe the rest of the world?
    it's amazing you have takes like this while holding yourself up at the know it all math/economics guy on this board

    you can have and make more money than the rest of the world and still be poor here


    it's all relative

    also, that doesn't excuse shortcomings from this country
    "For there is always light, if only we are brave enough to see it. If only we are brave enough to be it." Amanda Gorman

    "When Fascism comes to America, it will be wrapped in the flag and carrying a cross"

  20. #1420
    if my thought dreams could be seen goldfly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    You could exact extreme measures to reduce mortality of anything. Restrict types of food to be produced. Not allow car travel.

    We don't do those things for other methods.
    you're almost there
    "For there is always light, if only we are brave enough to see it. If only we are brave enough to be it." Amanda Gorman

    "When Fascism comes to America, it will be wrapped in the flag and carrying a cross"

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