Positive and Negative Surprises in 2018: Your Predictions

[nsacpi]

So which players will surprise to the upside and downside relative to the projection systems. Lets have some predictions. Only rule is you have to name the same number in both directions.

Mine:

Positive: Inciarte (Fangraphs Depth Charts has him at 2.5 WAR in 2018), Teheran (1.5 at Fangraphs Depth Charts), Vizcaino (1.0), Minter (0.8), Santana (0)

Negative: Gohara (2.4, this one is cheating a little on my part), Markakis (0.1), Newcomb (1.9), Swanson (1.5), Adams (-0.1)

[bravesfanMatt]

So which players will surprise to the upside and downside relative to the projection systems. Lets have some predictions. Only rule is you have to name the same number in both directions.

Mine:

Positive: Inciarte (Fangraphs Depth Charts has him at 2.5 WAR in 2018), Teheran (1.5 at Fangraphs Depth Charts), Vizcaino (1.0), Minter (0.8), Santana (0)

Negative: Gohara (2.4, this one is cheating a little on my part), Markakis (0.1), Newcomb (1.9), Swanson (1.5), Adams (-0.1)

I think Newk and Swanson hit or higher. I worry about viz hitting. Agree on Danny and Adams and Gohard.
I am also riding the wisler train he will provide value.

[Hudson2]

Positives: Albies, Swanson, Inciarte, Gohara

Negatives: Folty, Markakis, Camargo, Newcomb

[msstate7]

Positives: inciarte, albies, FF, Suzuki, flowers, camargo, Swanson, Markakis, Julio, folty, Newcomb, gohara, McCarthy, viz, minter, Ramirez, freeman

Negatives: Blair

[bravesfanMatt]

Positives: inciarte, albies, FF, Suzuki, flowers, camargo, Swanson, Markakis, Julio, folty, Newcomb, gohara, McCarthy, viz, minter, Ramirez, freeman

Negatives: Blair

Thethe you forgot Fried.

[nsacpi]

Thethe you forgot Fried.

too much negativism to be thethe

[GeorgiaGirl]

I suspect Swanson doesn't put up what was originally thought, but I kind of think he puts up a 1.5-2 WAR and if Camargo continues there's a chance he gets replaced, even though Camargo is stretched at SS, imo.

Edit: Otherwise it's hard to disagree.

[jpx7]

I actually think thethe is going to surprise and produce better content than expected this year. I also think bravesfanMatt will beat projections.

Sadly, I think Julio is going to come in a little under projections—but it will not, as some may come to malign, signal the beginning of a decline phase, but rather just some normal aberration. Meanwhile, Heyward will likewise fall short of his ****posting expectations, leaving Niners (who I think systems have pegged pretty squarely) to once again competitively vie for Worst Poster at season’s end.

[salmagundy]

Positives ---

Inciarte, Teheran, Camargo, Santana, Albies

Negatives ---

Swanson, Swanson, and Swanson

In reality -- Negs are Swanson, Wisler, Adams, Suzuki, Newk

[nsacpi]

normal aberration

right

[thethe]

I actually think thethe is going to surprise and produce better content than expected this year. I also think bravesfanMatt will beat projections.

Sadly, I think Julio is going to come in a little under projections—but it will not, as some may come to malign, signal the beginning of a decline phase, but rather just some normal aberration. Meanwhile, Heyward will likewise fall short of his ****posting expectations, leaving Niners (who I think systems have pegged pretty squarely) to once again competitively vie for Worst Poster at season’s end.

My goal is to set the bar low. Easy to beat expectations.

[thethe]

Positives - any player wearing a braves uniform

Negatives - any player trade away

[bravesfanMatt]

I actually think thethe is going to surprise and produce better content than expected this year. I also think bravesfanMatt will beat projections.

Sadly, I think Julio is going to come in a little under projections—but it will not, as some may come to malign, signal the beginning of a decline phase, but rather just some normal aberration. Meanwhile, Heyward will likewise fall short of his ****posting expectations, leaving Niners (who I think systems have pegged pretty squarely) to once again competitively vie for Worst Poster at season’s end.

I will do a signature bet the Niner produces his negative War again this year.

[jpx7]

Positives - any player wearing a braves uniform

Negatives - any player trade away

It’s this sort of meta-irony that has me hedging towards your beating the projections.

[jpx7]

I will do a signature bet the Niner produces his negative War again this year.

You’ll have to find someone who disagrees—and that might be hard, since all the systems are prognosticating a classic Niners sub-replacement season.

[thethe]

How about this guy for a positive?

[smootness]

Positive: Freeman, Dansby, Albies, Acuna
Negative: Inciarte, Flowers, Gohara, McCarthy

[Russ2dollas]

How about this guy for a positive?

I'd like to hear more about his catching. I feel like the consensus is he's bad to ok. I know he's still re-learning.

I'm ok with the offense first catcher. We have a number of those guys who could be very close. It's just that I'm not sure we are getting a ton of offense from Jackson, Cumberlend, etc. Just good catcher offense.

And with our build around pitching you'd think we would want to help pitching (see good defense and good catching).

[Enscheff]

I'd like to hear more about his catching. I feel like the consensus is he's bad to ok. I know he's still re-learning.

I'm ok with the offense first catcher. We have a number of those guys who could be very close. It's just that I'm not sure we are getting a ton of offense from Jackson, Cumberlend, etc. Just good catcher offense.

And with our build around pitching you'd think we would want to help pitching (see good defense and good catching).

I don't know anything about evaluating a catcher's defense with the eye test, but in the short amount I saw AJax behind the plate I saw him make a couple excellent blocks of balls in the dirt, and I didn't see anything obviously bad with his receiving.

Maybe he has a weak arm? Or a slow release that leads to bad pop times?

He looked the part to me, but I suppose that's not saying much. I certainly wouldn't be able to tell you why Flowers is a good pitch framer.

[thethe]

It's about being quiet with your lower body behind the plate and being comfotable catching the ball at the edge of the glove so the majority of the glove is in the zone while the ball is caught outside. Flowers is a master at both of those things.