Albies vs Altuve

[NYCBrave]

There is some sentiment on this board that Albies is turning into Altuve. Well, that is never going to be the case, there's about a 1% chance of that happening.

There's also some thought that Albies has never hit for as much power at any level as Altuve has. It's closer than you think.

In this age 20 season, Albies played in AAA and MLB and hit 15 homers (6 in MLB) and posted an ISO around .160

In his age 20 season, Altuve split the season between Lo-A and Hi-A, and hit 15 homers, with an ISO around .160

Altuve reached MLB level at age 21 in late 2011, and hit 2 homers in 234 PAs.

Albies reached MLB level at age 20 last year, and hit 6 homers in 244 PAs.

Altuve's next three seasons at MLB he hit 7 homers, 5 homers, and 7 homers.

Obviously he blew up after that, but I don't see any reason why Albies can't eclipse these numbers, even at a younger age.

[nsacpi]

There is some sentiment on this board that Albies is turning into Altuve. Well, that is never going to be the case, there's about a 1% chance of that happening.

There's also some thought that Albies has never hit for as much power at any level as Altuve has. It's closer than you think.

In this age 20 season, Albies played in AAA and MLB and hit 15 homers (6 in MLB) and posted an ISO around .160

In his age 20 season, Altuve split the season between Lo-A and Hi-A, and hit 15 homers, with an ISO around .160

Altuve reached MLB level at age 21 in late 2011, and hit 2 homers in 234 PAs.

Albies reached MLB level at age 20 last year, and hit 6 homers in 244 PAs.

Altuve's next three seasons at MLB he hit 7 homers, 5 homers, and 7 homers.

Obviously he blew up after that, but I don't see any reason why Albies can't eclipse these numbers, even at a younger age.

Very good post.

20 year old Albies topped 20 year old Altuve. No doubt about that. From that some people seem to be inferring that 26 year old Albies will top 26 year old Altuve. As you pointed out it doesn't work that way and there is no more than a 1% chance of that happening.

[bravesfanMatt]

Ozzie has 2 homers in 44 ABs this spring.. extrapolate that over 600 PAs and you get 27.. the numbers don't lie.

[50PoundHead]

Good post.

It's all too early to really tell, but if Albies can turn into 2014 - 2015 Altuve, that would be just grand and it's possible. I think Albies will walk more than Altuve, but likely not hit for as high an average. OBP counts big so that's probably a wash. Albies turning into 2016 -2017 Altuve is probably a stretch. Altuve just appears to have a more compact build than Albies, which doesn't mean a ton, but it probably portends more power potential.

[msstate7]

Ozzie has 2 homers in 44 ABs this spring.. extrapolate that over 600 PAs and you get 27.. the numbers don't lie.

Warmer weather in June and July push that number to 35. I set the O/U on albies’ HR total at 34 this season.

[GeorgiaGirl]

There's also some thought that Albies has never hit for as much power at any level as Altuve has. It's closer than you think.

This is the only thing I was really getting at with him. I don't think young Altuve, or Altuve at all outside of possibly his 14/15 season in a couple of years is really a fair comp for him anymore. He can hit for more power than young Altuve, but is unlikely to every put up the ridiculous BAs and 20+ HRs that Altuve has in his last couple years.

[JCarbo76]

There is some sentiment on this board that Albies is turning into Altuve. Well, that is never going to be the case, there's about a 1% chance of that happening.

There's also some thought that Albies has never hit for as much power at any level as Altuve has. It's closer than you think.

In this age 20 season, Albies played in AAA and MLB and hit 15 homers (6 in MLB) and posted an ISO around .160

In his age 20 season, Altuve split the season between Lo-A and Hi-A, and hit 15 homers, with an ISO around .160

Altuve reached MLB level at age 21 in late 2011, and hit 2 homers in 234 PAs.

Albies reached MLB level at age 20 last year, and hit 6 homers in 244 PAs.

Altuve's next three seasons at MLB he hit 7 homers, 5 homers, and 7 homers.

Obviously he blew up after that, but I don't see any reason why Albies can't eclipse these numbers, even at a younger age.

Excellent post. I posted some similar numbers a month or so ago. What Albies has done at this age is rare. I think some folks tend to downplay him for two reasons: 1) His size, and 2) Acuna. Will he match the 25 year old Altuve when he is 25? No one knows. But I wouldn't be shocked.

At age 20 in MLB, he posted a WAR of 1.4 in 244 plate appearances. Extrapolate that over 650 PAs and that a 3.7 WAR. At age 20.

Is that a true measure of his ability? Is a result of a hot streak in a small sample size?

I don't know, but let's put this into perspective. Of all 20 year old middle infielders since 1950, Ozzie's 1.7 is 9th in WAR, even though he only had 244 PAs. If he posted a 3.7 WAR over a full season at age 20, he would be fourth, behind only Arod, Alomar and Correa.

[thethe]

Anyone have exit velocity numbers and albies vs altuve? How about at similar stages in their career.

I've read that albies being a diminutive guy is mesleading. He's supposed to be built like a brick house.

[bravesfanMatt]

Anyone have exit velocity numbers and albies vs altuve? How about at similar stages in their career.

I've read that albies being a diminutive guy is mesleading. He's supposed to be built like a brick house.

[msstate7]

I love that Albies is training with Markakis now. Power galore this season

[Enscheff]

We discussed this in detail at the end of last season. The short of it is the optimistic comp I came up with is Betts with a few more Ks.

In short, no. Albies hits too many fly balls, and doesn't hit them with a high enough exit velocity to consistently produce a ~.900 OPS.

Albies currently hits 16.8/40.1/43.1 LD/GB/FB. Using the splits leader boards, we can find all players with a similar batted ball profile this year:

http://www.fangraphs.com/leadersspli...sort=22,1&pg=0

There are 16 names on that list, and Albies has the 2nd highest BA of .272, behind only Nelson Cruz at .286. Quite simply, that isn't a batted ball profile that lends itself to a very high BA.

Albies' average exit velocity is 86.7 MPH (ranked 223 out of 376 hitters with 100+ ABs this season). His average exit velocity on fly balls is 88.9 MPH (#229 out of 280 players who have hit 40+ fly balls this year). He has well below average power.

For reference, here is the average fly ball exit velocity of the Top 5 on the list above when ranked by BA:

Cruz - 96.9 (#6)
Donaldson - 96.1 (#13)
Machado - 94.3 (#43)
Betts - 89.4 (#216)
Dozier - 94.7 (#32)

I think you get the picture. Albies hits too many fly balls considering how hard he hits them, period.

But....look at Betts. Similar batted ball profile, similar exit velocities. How good is Betts offensively?

Betts posted a .318/.363/.534 (.897 OPS) line in 2016, and a .263/.343/.456 (.798 OPS) line this season.

He seems like a very similar hitter. Fast. BB rate in 7%-10% range. Biggest difference is Betts' K rate sits in the low-teens, while it looks like Albies will sit in the mid-teens.

What kind of hitter is "Betts with 3% more Ks"? Look no further than Betts' 2014 season when he posted a .291/.368/.444 (.812 OPS) line with a very similar K rate, BB rate and batted ball profile to Albies. Coincidentally, it matches pretty well to Albies' current line of .272/.352/.450 (.802 OPS).

So yeah, I would call Albies "Betts with a few more K's". That isn't a consistent .900 OPS guy, but that is a consistent .800-.850 OPS guy that will improve incrementally as his K and fly ball rates drop. Combine that with plus defense at 2B and plus base running, and the Braves have themselves a legit 4+ WAR player as soon as next year.

I project Albies to be the 2nd most valuable player on the Braves roster next year behind Freeman.

[thethe]

Geez....at 21 years old. Guy is only going to get more fit. This guy wasn't hitting bleeder over the fence last year. These were monster shots that would have been Homers anywhere.

[Nerfherders]

I like the Betts comp too.

[chipchildress]

We discussed this in detail at the end of last season. The short of it is the optimistic comp I came up with is Betts with a few more Ks.

can these velocity numbers increase as guys start to hit their prime? if so, i'd be curious to see an example of a guy who did significantly start mashing as he grew into his body or something like that.

[JCarbo76]

I thought I would give this thread a little update. Ozzie, approximate 1/3 of the way through his age 21 season has posted WAR of 3.2 in 459 PAs.

Since 1901, how many 2B have posted more than 3.2 WAR through their age 21 seasons?

Six. Listed according to WAR and PAs through age 21:

Alomar: 8.8, 1313
Maz: 8.4, 1452
Morgan: 5.5, 781
Randolph: 4.7, 569
Whitaker: 3.7, 604
Addison Russell: 3.5, 523

Of course, Ozzie isn't done yet, as he will, barring injury, put up another 450, or so, PAs though his age 21 season.

Not including Russell, who is still only age 24, the 5 guys head of Ozzie on this list include 3 HOFers and 2 guys who had multiple all-star seasons, and arguably should be in the Hall. Here they are listed by career WAR and 2B rank.

Alomar: 67.1 (11th)
Maz: 36.5 (38th)
Joe: 100.6 (3rd)
Randolph: 65.9 (12th)
Lou: 75.1 (6th)

BTW, Altuve through his age 21 season posted WAR of 0.6.

[GeorgiaGirl]

Seems like the other shoe may have finally dropped on Albies' power (since I'm saying it though he'll homer tonight lol). Hasn't homered since the makeup game with the Cubs (also when I was coming home from Florida lol).

[Super]

Seems like the other shoe may have finally dropped on Albies' power (since I'm saying it though he'll homer tonight lol). Hasn't homered since the makeup game with the Cubs (also when I was coming home from Florida lol).

that's not all that long without one.
long for him, maybe

[Deester11]

that's not all that long without one.
long for him, maybe

Agreed. Not worried about it at all actually as I still see he has already beat the initial estimates of how many he would hit. I'm more intrigued by how much more he matures. He will continue to be dangerous.

[NYCBrave]

Don't know how to link to an Instagram post, but on the MLB account, there is a quote from Altuve saying Albies is "Better at 21 than I am at 28".

[GeorgiaGirl]

Right now he's pretty much doing a nicer 2016 Rougned Odor with a few more walks and better defense at 2B. Unfortunately, Odor cratered after that year, but the hope for me is hitters that are contact at heart can learn how to better pick their spots, etc, even though he'll never be a high walk guy.