Jeez. Rougned Odor? I understand managing our expectations, but maybe a less extreme comp?Originally Posted by GeorgiaGirl
How about Javier Baez?
Thing is, once this power thing calms down, he still has contact skills some of the comps don't.
Jeez. Rougned Odor? I understand managing our expectations, but maybe a less extreme comp?
How about Javier Baez?
Thing is, once this power thing calms down, he still has contact skills some of the comps don't.
It’s a comparison that’s popped into my head, but that I’ve kept out of my posts, as a sort of worst-case for Albies. But the parallels are there at the moment.
"For all his tattooings he was on the whole a clean, comely looking cannibal."
Good Rougned Odor with more walks and better defense really isn't as far off as you wish it was from what Ozzie Albies is doing at the moment because of what the statcast expected stats say about Albies (even though I feel like he can beat them). Bad Odor is far off, but the one pre cratering isn't.
He was thought to have been more contact than power himself, too.
Edit: You know what, maybe I'm wrong. I just looked again at plate discipline and while Albies was pretty bad earlier (near 40% or higher on O-Swing%, while he's not walking much it's been dropping lately.
Last edited by GeorgiaGirl; 05-22-2018 at 03:04 PM.
Aggression with prospects is fine, but being stupid is not. There should be a way to find a happy medium between a Pirates like idea of being overly cautious with prospects and going stupidly fast with prospects.
jpx7 (05-22-2018)
Baez career strikeout rate 28%. Albies career strikeout rate 16%.
Last edited by nsacpi; 05-22-2018 at 03:41 PM.
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
I was talking about Odor, whose strikeout rate his first two MLB seasons (as well as in the minors) was right around Albies', before jumping up each of the past three years (as his production has jumped way down).
And again: it's a worst-case fear that I've heretofore dared not speak.
Last edited by jpx7; 05-22-2018 at 03:46 PM.
"For all his tattooings he was on the whole a clean, comely looking cannibal."
The thing is, even when Odor was “good” he amassed 1.9 WAR in 870 PAs through his age 21 season. Ozzie is at 3.2 in about 400 fewer PAs. Even if he “levels out’” over the rest of the season, he will more than double Odors WAR through age 21 in roughly the same number of PAs.
jpx7 (05-22-2018)
Albies currently has the batted ball profile of a pull happy slugger (45% Pull, 43% FB), which is completely different than the all fields hitter we saw in the minors.
He has improved his LD/FB average exit velocity by about 5 MPH since last year to above average, so maybe that approach can work for him. MLB average HR/FB rate is typically around 13%, so if Albies regresses to that mark or better and hits 40% FB over ~500 BIPs (along with 50 BBs and 125 Ks), that's 25-30 HRs along with an .850ish OPS and positive defense at 2B.
That's not a 1-2 hitter, but that's a damn good hitter and a damn good player overall.
I would like to see Albies hitting behind Markakis, not in front of him if this is the kind of hitter he is going to transition into.
Last edited by Enscheff; 05-22-2018 at 05:00 PM.
Ozzie career slash line (though SSS applies) is right in line with Mookie Betts. Betts K's a good bit less (about 5 percent) but walks almost the same. As Enscheff stated before, Betts is probably the best case scenario version of Ozzie, and imo, pretty likely to be a similar player. Even while his K's have risen, 18 percent isn't drastic and only about 1\4 of the season has been played, so his K rate could drop as he adjusts more.
jpx7 (05-22-2018)
We can see his 15 days rolling HR/FB rate regressing right to MLB average as predicted after a ~25 game spike:
https://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.asp...pe=mult>1=15
jpx7 (05-22-2018)
Yeah I liked the "Betts with 5% more Ks" comp when I analyzed them a while ago.
Now Betts is putting up an 8+ win MVP season at the age of 25.
jpx7 (05-22-2018)
Very interesting comp with Betts. If you look at Betts age 21 season in the majors you can see Albies on Pace to out perform that. His age 22 season as well. It's all about the adjustments. Odor is a scary thought for a comp, but Albies calling card is supposed to be elite bat control, so I can't see him ever falling to those depths.
jpx7 (05-22-2018)
I would be completely shocked if Albies turns into Odor.
I would also be shocked if he becomes Altuve/Betts (5% K rate is a pretty big difference), but that's more probable than Odor as far as I'm concerned.
You can make a very good argument that a true "screw traditional" lineup is...
1. Markakis
2. Freeman
3. Albies
4. Acuna
5. Suzuki/Flowers
6. Inciarte
7. Camargo
8. Swanson
Not much different past the top 4, but to my eye (maybe you switch Acuna and Albies though), that's what the analytics ask for. Not for speed at the top, but for OBP and your best hitter. Your best hitter is hitting 2 in an analytic lineup.
Aggression with prospects is fine, but being stupid is not. There should be a way to find a happy medium between a Pirates like idea of being overly cautious with prospects and going stupidly fast with prospects.
jpx7 (05-22-2018)
Good call.
Managuarantano's Volunteers (05-22-2018), mfree80 (05-22-2018), mqt (05-22-2018)
Ozzie on pace for a 6 WAR season before he's 21..... Pretty short list of players who have done that. Not to say we should expect an 8 or 9 WAR season in the future, but it certainly doesn't seem as unlikely as it once did.
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