Yeah. Ozzie is much closer to Vlad in terms of hit ability than Francoeur so a lack of walks won't be as nearly detrimental.Originally Posted by Tapate50
Yeah. Ozzie is much closer to Vlad in terms of hit ability than Francoeur so a lack of walks won't be as nearly detrimental.
There is probably a grain of truth to this, but I can think of at least 3 instances where Albies gave away an at bat that he could have walked. Yesterday he chased two feet outside on a full count, for example. He needs to start getting on base in those at bats.
Dude is 21 and slugging .630.
He will regress to less power and more walks as the season wears on.
There's nothing in Albies' history that indicates he won't eventually walk. Right now it is likely a combination of still being relatively new to MLB pitching, being overly eager and not patient enough, and hitting in front of Freeman.
He'll be fine.
Right now, if you go to Fangraphs, Albies is Javy Baez like plate discipline bad on outside stuff. The good thing is, in most cases he's making contact with it at an above average rate I believe instead of missing but it's not good to swing when stuff is there at all.
When you think about it, tbh it's obvious what the adjustments were against him. To throw him stuff that may look like a strike but is not, and is outside/inside. Because of his bat control and young age, it's too tempting for him to try to make contact on it unless it's just not close.
Aggression with prospects is fine, but being stupid is not. There should be a way to find a happy medium between a Pirates like idea of being overly cautious with prospects and going stupidly fast with prospects.
Yeah I just wonder what that will look like exactly. Will he regress to a .500 slug? .450? Better or worse? Will he be a guy who can get his OBP over .350? He is an extremely interesting player to me and I'm not exactly sure what to expect from him given his start to the season.
First, some MLB average numbers for context...
Pitches in the strike zone (Zone%): 43.4%
Swing rate on those pitches (Z-Swing%): 66.4%
Contact rate on those swings (Z-Contact%): 84.9%
Swing rate on pitches outside the zone (O-Swing%): 28.7%
Contact rate on those swings (O-Contact%): 60.7%
This all makes sense intuitively. The contact rate is higher on pitches in the strike zone by about 25%. This is a relative constant.
Now, for Albies compared to 198 qualified batters...
Zone%: 43.0% (league average)
Z-Swing%: 76.7% (#28 highest)
Z-Contact%: 86.4% (slightly above average)
O-Swing%: 34.2% (#46 highest)
O-Contact%: 71.8% (#43 highest)
Albies sees roughly as many strikes as the average hitter, and he swings at them often...very often. He makes slightly better than average contact on those swings. He also swings at balls outside the zone at a much higher rate than the average hitter, and then hits them often. He isn't exactly hunting strikes he can punish, and he is still punishing the ball. His plus hit tool is as advertised. He is very good.
The obvious adjustment is to throw him more pitches outside the zone, and hope he gets himself out more. Once pitchers make that adjustment, it will be up Albies to decrease the O-Swing rate and draw more walks.
Now compare that to one of the best hitters in the game, Freddie Freeman...
Zone%: 34.6% (#3 lowest)
Z-Swing%: 71.3% (#63 highest)
Z-Contact%: 84.2% (league average)
O-Swing%: 17.9% (#188 highest, or #11 lowest)
O-Contact%: 77.8% (#17 highest)
Freeman essentially never sees strikes, and he rarely swings at pitches that aren't strikes. That has led to a walk rate of 12% the last few years, which appears to have taken another jump this year. He appears to hunt hittable pitches, and then punishes them. Freeman is the end result of a completely matured middle of the order hitter.
Last edited by Enscheff; 04-12-2018 at 02:57 PM.
Good analysis. Albies hit tool is crazy good and I agree, he's going to start seeing fewer strikes. It's interesting to note that while he's not walked yet this year, he has shown in his career the ability to take a walk. His BB% last year was 8.6% in 244 PAs. That's not out of line with his minor league career and is about average for a major leaguer. In the end I think he has a good enough eye to keep pitchers honest and force them to stay around the zone. That's all he'll need.
He's pacing at 8 fWAR no big deal
Mini Trout
So what you're saying is I was underrating him?
Natural Immunity Croc
seems that way
And there are still unhappy folks with his walk rate.
Ivermectin Man
Are you happy with his walk rate?
jpx7 (04-12-2018)
As he paces at 8fWar, yeah, im fine with it. If it stays this way, and his fWAR plummets then I'll raise an eyebrow at the end of the season. Still if he puts up a stellar year, lets not nitpick him to death. He's like 21.
But really he's fine. There is nothing to say this is a norm for him. Just a run, it will balance itself out.
Ivermectin Man
Oh I agree. I mean you obviously want a player to walk but I have a feeling Ozzie will peg out a career as a high avg/low walk player due to his hit tool. We'll see how things shake out.
He’s difficult to position against as well. We know he has the power to hit it behind the outfielders, so the defense can’t play him shallow. At the same time, he’s so fast that he will stretch soft hit ground balls into doubles if they play him deep.
As long as he doesn’t strike out, he’s going to be a huge plus offensively.
If you felt like his walk rate was acceptable before the season, you should still feel that way after 12 meaningless games.
thewupk (04-12-2018)
I see what you did there
Southcack77 (04-12-2018)
Albies will never be a high walk player. If he finishes between 6-8% BB rate, it'll be fine.
It'll raise eyebrows if it's 2016 Odor like by the end of the season, though.
Aggression with prospects is fine, but being stupid is not. There should be a way to find a happy medium between a Pirates like idea of being overly cautious with prospects and going stupidly fast with prospects.
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