I would think a good guess as to Tommy's first year might be something like .275/.350/.400/.750. He has too good of location recognition to have much lower OBP, and quite possibly it could be higher. He rarely swings at balls outside of the strike zone.
Hot damnOriginally Posted by skillet
aka RHT10/Cokeman
I think you'd have to shave some off the SLG you've projected. I'm guessing something Gregor Blanco-like in that his SLG may be lower than his OBP. I'd guess his OPS would be anywhere between .675 and .725, but I have no way of quantifying my prediction.
A good rough guess as to a major league equivalent might be somewhere in the 85% range. His career minor league slash is .327/.412/.496/.908. 85% of each of those is .278/.350/.422/.772.
Tommy through 9 games .379/.550/.690/1.240 with 11 walks, still 0 strikeouts in 40 plate appearances.
I really think that Tommy offensively will wind up a lot like Dustin Pedroia. Good across the board but not really great. I don't get where people are coming up with the idea that he doesn't have too much power.
Stockholm, more densely populated than NYC - sturg
I think his first year would be an adjustment but I think he will be just fine offensively.
Natural Immunity Croc
He has doubles power, but from his early career, I don't see him as a double-digit HR guy. Of course, that's why we wait to let them play.
That's not far from Pedroia who averages about 13 homers a full season.
Stockholm, more densely populated than NYC - sturg
I really don't care about homeruns. I care about good AB's and linedrives.
Natural Immunity Croc
Teheran_49 (10-25-2013)
You should care about homers, everything is a factor for a player. That said if all Tommy amounts to is Placido Polanco with more walks and less defense, I won't complain at all.
I know I'm about to go full thethe but I don't see Tommy being any worse than a good major league hitter. only question on him is defense. Which I think is blown out of proportion.
Stockholm, more densely populated than NYC - sturg
BremanFan88 (10-24-2013)
This guy is a smaller version of Matt Carpenter. Great eye at the plate, doubles power, great contact hitter, average to below average in the field.
I really don't care if he hits HRs either, but he's probably not going to have an isoSLG above .125 if he doesn't.
I exported all statistical data from fangraphs and did the following filters:
HR's: >=5 & <=8
OBP: > 330 (I believe LaStella will have that)
ABs: > 300
Only 13 players qualified for this filtering all year and 7 of them had over an isoSLG of .125
I think your number though is pretty spot on. But, if he had a slash of 280/340/400 I think we should be elated.
Natural Immunity Croc
Will he hit more than .179, you think?
50PoundHead (10-25-2013), Tapate50 (10-25-2013)
Well, Matt Carpenter's triple slash at the minor league level was .297/.417/.461 with 13 home runs, 29 doubles, and 3 triples in 451 official at bats. His career minor league ISO was .167
Tommy La Stella's triple slash is currently .327/.411/.496 with 20 HR, 57 2B, and 13 3B in 847 official at bats. His career minor league ISO is .169.
Carpenter in his first full ML season posted .294/.365/.463 with 6 HR and 22 2B with an ISO of .169.
Carpenter is a little bigger than LaStella so i could see the power developing as he reaches his prime years but I agree in principal. For some odd reason LaStella is being looked over by our fanbase. He has destroyed minor league pitching thus far.
Natural Immunity Croc
Easily.
I'm not trying to dis La Stella. I don't trust MLEs that much and I think a big difference between Carpenter and La Stella is their physical size. I think La Stella would have better contact numbers than Carpenter, but I don't think he could ever hit 50 2Bs in a season. We'll just have to see what happens.
Carpenter and La Stella both spent their age 24 seasons in AA. At age 25, Carpenter spent most of the year in AAA. We shouldn't underrate the difficulty of jumping from AA to the majors. The fact that some players do it does not mean that it is easy or that everyone can do it successfully. The Braves have jumped Heyward, Simmons and Gattis in recent years. Freeman spent almost a full year in AAA. Is it a coincidence that Freeman is our most mature, consistent hitter? Maybe. But I think in general it helps to have a player spend half a season to a season in AAA.
Fair point. I think I am just so sick of Uggla that I want some fresh blood at second base. I wouldn't mind LaStella being in AAA if we got someone like Infante.
Natural Immunity Croc
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