OK, we all know that Teheran's velocity is down 2-3 mph. That is not good news. However, taking a look at the movement compenents of his pitches shows a glimmer of hope.
2017 FA: 91.9 mph, 4.8" HMov, 8.0" VMov, Grade 40 overall, below average
2018 FA: 89.7 mph, 3.4" HMov, 7.9" VMov, Grade 30 overall, unusable
2017 SI: 91.8 mph, 9.3" HMov, 4.5" VMov (lower is better on SI), Grade 55 overall, above average
2018 SI: 89.0 mph, 9.2" HMov, 3.6" VMov (lower is better on SI), Grade 45 overall, below average
2017 CU: 73.9 mph, 6.3" HMov, -2.3" VMov, Grade 40 overall, below average
2018 CU: 71.6 mph, 7.9" HMov, -3.0" VMov, Grade 50 overall, average
2017 SL: 83.1 mph, 1.1" HMov, 2.5" VMov, Grade 45 overall, below average
2018 SL: 79.3 mph, 3.2" HMov, 0.1" VMov, Grade 55 overall, above average
2017 CH: 9.0 mph delta, 7.5" HMov, 5.7" VMov, Grade 50 overall, average
2018 CH: 8.3 mph delta, 8.4" HMov, 4.7 VMov, Grade 55, above average
The movement on all his off speed pitches has increased. His CU is curving more. His SL is sliding more. His CH is fading more.
The only problem is the missing 2-3 mph on everything, especially the FA/SI. That missing velocity is making both of his fastballs below average, and the FA is completely unusable. A pitcher needs a FA or SI as the foundation of their arsenal that everything else works off, and Teheran does not possess an MLB-quality FA/SI right now. He is currently not an MLB-quality pitcher because of it.
If Teheran can get the FA/SI velocity back up to the usual 91-92 range, the added movement he found on his breaking balls could allow him to right the ship this season and back to being a solid #3.
However, if that increased velocity comes with decreased movement on his off speed pitches, he will still be the 4/5 guy he was last season. That's better than what he is right now though...which is a pitcher who doesn't belong in an MLB rotation.
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