There is none. I don't get the fascination with this one.Originally Posted by CJ9
A pretty good outcome for him would be Ender Inciarte, more or less. Maybe slightly better defensively but not so much its likely to make a great deal of difference.
I'm not sure that's really all that much to be worked up about. Good sure, but not, "we're awesome because..."
No.
Ender Inciarte was never a top 50 prospect in all of baseball by multiple outlets.
Ender Inciarte is a gold glove winning major leaguer who is about an average major league hitter.
That would be a real good outcome for someone that is not even an average hitter in the minor leagues and still has demonstrated no power at all.
jpx7 (05-09-2018)
Ender is 5'11, 190 who's an average athlete with an average bat.
Cristian Pache is 6'2, 195 with an 80 speed, 80 FV defense, 70 arm, 55 FV hit tool who is still just 19 years and 5 months old.
Cristian Pache's ISO this year is higher than Ender Inciarte has ever had in a season at any level.
Pache is hitting .312 in 130 AB and has a 55 FV hit tool.
What are you talking about?
I think you might have SJ fatigue. Calling him average is a bad call. Pache is a great prospect that could be another superstar like Ozzie.
Coppy
SJ24 (05-09-2018)
It's OK to be excited about Pache (and plenty of other prospects as well), but come on now. Ender has won 2 consecutive Gold Gloves in one of the toughest defensive positions there is (particularly with Markakis, Kemp, and Adams flanking him), is a .300 hitter, and has averaged 175+ hits per season since becoming a full-time player.
Calling him an "average athlete with an average bat" is beyond comical.
Has there EVER been a statement and question a certain someone should absolutely never have made and asked publicly more than...
Kinda pathetic to see yourself as a message board knight in shining armor. How impotent does someone have to be in real life to resort to playing hero on a message board?
jpx7 (05-09-2018)
Perhaps you know or perhaps you don't that you basically need close to a full season of PAs before ISO becomes a particularly relevant measure. Fangraphs recommends 550. At this point, Pache is very much in small sample size territory at 126 PAs.
Pache's ISO last year was .062 in 512 PAs and was .070 the year before with about 100 or so. His career Minor League ISO is considerably below Inciarte's career Major League ISO.
Fangraphs has a current value 20 on his Hit Tool, so take it easy there.
Good to know that Pache is taller though.
jpx7 (05-09-2018)
Calling who average is a bad call?
Ender is an average-at-best hitter. Pache has a long way to go to even be that in the majors. A really, really long way. If the argument is that Pache has a higher ceiling, I think most would agree. but inciarte would still be a really good outcome for him. he's not likely to even be that.
Acuna is a unicorn. He is a 99.99 percentile prospect. Comparing him and Pache, or their trajectory, is ridiculous. Using Acuna's timeline and success to justify rushing Pache is a terrible idea.
jpx7 (05-09-2018)
Albies was a much better hitter in the low minors than Pache has been so far. Albies didn't struggle at any level until he got to AAA. I should say he dominated (in his way) every level offensively until he got to AAA.
Pache apparently has an elite defensive tool. That makes him a great prospect because he doesn't have to project to have much offense to be a difference maker and scouts think he could get to average or better.
But early results suggest that something very much below major league average offense is possible.
So I'll stand by feeling pretty good if he turns into Ender Inciarte with slightly better defense.
If he suddenly sprouts home run power I'll reevaluate.
jpx7 (05-09-2018)
This guy knows athletes, so listen to him.
His daddy said so!
You aren't wrong in this assessment, but there is absolutely no need to rush Pache or put him on a trajectory similar to Acuna. Pache is a very very good prospect. Acuna is an otherworldly prospect. Pache needs time to develop. Throwing him into double A just because that is what Acuna did would be ridiculous. Let him develop in A+ ball and if he is still killing it in late June, maybe move him up then. Not after a month in A+.
jpx7 (05-09-2018)
Demeritte is a 20 hit tool also... I'm gonna say fangraphs needs to reevaluate pache's hit tool. Demeritte is a career .239 hitter; pache is .291
3-4 today to get to .313
Prospect-itis.
He'd rather have the possibility of someone better than Inciarte, even if that is relatively unlikely, than the reality of actually having a Gold Glove CF who is an average MLB hitter who also gets on base at a 35% clip.
Because Pache has a good frame and some scouts think he might find some power that has been missing to date.
Maybe he does. That would be awesome. And then we can talk about him like a superstar prospect. Until then he's the hopeful successor to Inciarte.
Sigh...considering that Pache made a swing change, I might do what I did with Acuna and throw his early minor league stats away. Based on what I read with him early on he was a big time athlete that had major swing mechanic issues that he needed to correct as a teen. And that he had power, but it was sapped because of his major mechanical issues with the bat.
No he's not showing HR pop (yet) but he's showing a lot more general power than he did last year.
Aggression with prospects is fine, but being stupid is not. There should be a way to find a happy medium between a Pirates like idea of being overly cautious with prospects and going stupidly fast with prospects.
Ah, but they have a FV of 30 on Demeritte's hit tool because he's pretty much what he is at this point. Much bigger upside, or at least it is unknown at this point, on Pache hit tool. It would be interesting to know what the FV on Demeritte was at a comparable age. Might not be something that could be discovered.
To be fair, he did say a 55 FV hit tool which is what Fangraphs had him at. So his statement was true, depite me disagreeing with him.
1. In a relatively insignificant sample.
2. Acuna's stat line as a hitter bear no semblance of similarity to Pache. Acuna was a much better hitter, showing much more power, at an early age than Pache.
I hope his "poor mechanics" have been solved and he's great now. Let's take a look at the end of the season and see how he progressed.
I'll be pulling for you to be correct.
Posting Permissions
Reply With Quote