Typically of bad hitters.Originally Posted by nsacpi
Typically of bad hitters.
Natural Immunity Croc
some are unlucky and regress toward the mean the next season
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
Yes, indeed. That's how averages work.
Braves as a team were dead average BABIP wise.
To the extent that they are replacing weak contact hitters with more powerful hitters or slow runners with faster ones, they might be able to make a case for finishing in the upper half of BABIP this year rather than right on the line.
I'm not sure if those numbers suggest that or not. I just posted them.
Faster players might have some merit but hitting the ball hard doesn't correlate with a higher BABIP.
How about LD% rather than exit velocity.
That certainly changes things. Line drives yield the largest BABIP type. Exit velocity really pertains to slugging.
Would you agree with this statement:
Good hitters will outperform league wide expected BABIP while bad hitters will underperform against league wide expected BABIP?
Natural Immunity Croc
define 'good hitter'
>wRC+ 105
Natural Immunity Croc
generally yes...but every season some good hitters are unlucky and some bad ones get lucky
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
Again strata would be interesting and then to drill down to the individual cases. To do this kind of stuff for a living would be interesting.
Depends on the player and their hitting profile.
Juan Pierre for example ran a 312 BABIP and a 86 WRC+ for his career.
Just as I'm sure there are a number of hulking sluggers with a below average because they hit a ton of flyballs.
In the end these things tend to average out however.
Yes - But on average I would expect the better hitters to outperform league wide BABIP. That is the ponit many of us have made for years.
Natural Immunity Croc
But they average out over the whole population. I would wager that the better hitters in my definition outperform league wide BABIP.
Natural Immunity Croc
Again I would say it depends on the hitters profile. Jay Bruce is a a guy who is running a career 283 BABIP with a 109 WRC+.
Players exist on both sides.
Thats an outlier and you know it sir.
Last year out of qualified hitters:
wRC+ > 110 had a BABIp of .318043
wRC+ < 110 had a BABIP of .29548
So I think all this talk about BABIP is just about who is a good hitter and who isn't.
Natural Immunity Croc
2016 Data:
wRC+ > 110 had a BABIp of .31663
wRC+ < 110 had a BABIP of .296523
See a pattern?
If you are a good hitter you will have a higher BABIP (ON AVERAGE)
Natural Immunity Croc
Are they good hitters or hitters getting lucky with BABIP? Of course players with a highish BABIP will generally have a higher WRC+. BABIP directly effects offensive output. Which is why you should look at the player and what their hitting profile is.
Come on now. Yes - There is noise but overall the better hitters in the league have a higher wRC+.
This is not hard nor sure should it be unexpected. Better hitters hit more line drives because they make better contact because they see the ball better. That is what makes them better.
I just think its wrong to say X hitter has a BABIP of Y but you have to regress why to Z which is the league average BABIP. Sure - Nobody is going to BABIP 400 for a season or even 360 but you should not assume a regression to 300 for every hitter. That is way to simplistic of an analysis.
Natural Immunity Croc
I think your point is correct but you are not understanding that correlation does not imply causality...to do what you are trying to do I would suggest looking at 2017 babips of the high wrc 2016 versus low wrc 2016 hitters
Last edited by nsacpi; 04-09-2018 at 03:01 PM.
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
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