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Thread: BABIP Gods Smile on Braves

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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    Braves actually finished at .305 last year. .317 would have lead the non-Rockies MLB last year, but there is usually 2-5 teams in the .31x range.

    For what it is worth (prolly not much) the Braves regulars with 100 PA that had BABIP under .305 last season were:

    Matt Adams .294
    Dansby .292
    J. Peterson .279
    Suzuki .268
    A. Garcia .247
    D. Santana .243
    R. Ruiz .231

    This year the guys who are dragging the average in the SSS are:

    Markakis .304
    Albies .298
    Suzuki .262
    Lane Adams .298
    C. Steward .214
    C. Perez .200
    Culberson .188
    Bourjous .167

    .......

    Nothing necessarily to draw from that except Suzuki is pretty consistent and the Braves better players seem to either have BABIP skill or continuing good fortune.
    I fully expect Albies to be up in the .320 range when he stops hitting so many FBs.

    The rest of the low BABIP guys won’t see many more PAs.

    All the high BABIP will likely regress, quite a bit in some cases.

  2. #82
    Arbitration Eligible NYCBrave's Avatar
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    Slightly off topic, but while we've had good luck with Babip, it seems we've had tough luck in pitching matchups. What I mean is were having to face every teams aces and not missing them. Nola 3 times, Scherzer twice, Syndegaard and DeGrom in this coming series which will make twice. Strasburg we missed once. Mets on the other hand have already missed Scherzer twice.

  3. #83
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    Who besides Swanson will see their BABIP dip significantly?
    Freddie's will probably dip, but how much? He tends to carry a higher one.

  4. #84
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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    Who besides Swanson will see their BABIP dip significantly?
    Freddie's will probably dip, but how much? He tends to carry a higher one.
    Flaherty for sure.
    "I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."

    "I am your retribution."

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    I feel Acuna's will drop at least 100 points if not more

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    I feel Acuna's will drop at least 100 points if not more
    more likely to rise 100 points...he's a special special player
    "I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."

    "I am your retribution."

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    Flaherty for sure.
    true. i guess i was looking at guys i expect to be full timers moving forward. camargo/flaherty certainly fit.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    I feel Acuna's will drop at least 100 points if not more
    of course, but he hasn't been playing all year.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    Braves actually finished at .305 last year. .317 would have lead the non-Rockies MLB last year, but there is usually 2-5 teams in the .31x range.

    For what it is worth (prolly not much) the Braves regulars with 100 PA that had BABIP under .305 last season were:

    Matt Adams .294
    Dansby .292
    J. Peterson .279
    Suzuki .268
    A. Garcia .247
    D. Santana .243
    R. Ruiz .231

    This year the guys who are dragging the average in the SSS are:

    Markakis .304
    Albies .298
    Suzuki .262
    Lane Adams .298
    C. Steward .214
    C. Perez .200
    Culberson .188
    Bourjous .167

    .......

    Nothing necessarily to draw from that except Suzuki is pretty consistent and the Braves better players seem to either have BABIP skill or continuing good fortune.
    Speaking of Adonis Garcia, he now plays for the Twins. The LG Twins of the Korean Baseball Organization that is. Don't know what his BABIP is, but he's hitting .356 with a .932 OPS. But don't get too excited. Hyun Soo Kim is the team's stud and he absolutely fell on his face in two MLB stops (Orioles, Phillies) last season. He's cruising along with a Freddie Freeman-ish 1.042 OPS.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    I feel Acuna's will drop at least 100 points if not more
    Only if he starts pouting.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    true. i guess i was looking at guys i expect to be full timers moving forward. camargo/flaherty certainly fit.
    Whoever plays third full-time going forward is going to have a lower BABIP than Flaherty had in April (.397)
    "I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."

    "I am your retribution."

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    Whoever plays third full-time going forward is going to have a lower BABIP than Flaherty had in April (.397)
    understood. but maybe their numbers won't be as fluky as flaherty's.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    Whoever plays third full-time going forward is going to have a lower BABIP than Flaherty had in April (.397)
    Where does one find this BABIP stat? It isn't on the mlb site or baseball-reference that I can find.
    FFF - BB, BB, 2B, HR, 2B, HR, 1B, BB, BB, 1B, BB, BB, HR

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    Quote Originally Posted by Runnin View Post
    Where does one find this BABIP stat? It isn't on the mlb site or baseball-reference that I can find.
    fangraphs

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    the phillies have a group of huge BABIP overperformers in Hoskins, Herrera, Hernandez, Alfaro. But also a lot of players dragging their number down in Santana (really bad), Crawford, Altherr. Still not overly impressed with them as a team. Maybe i'll be proven wrong.

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    nick williams had a .257 BABIP but always carried a really high one in the minors. how likely is he to carry that over to the majors and end up a good bit above .300?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Runnin View Post
    Where does one find this BABIP stat? It isn't on the mlb site or baseball-reference that I can find.
    fangraphs
    "I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."

    "I am your retribution."

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    You can even calculate it yourself if you know the player's hits, ab's, hr's and k's.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Nerfherders View Post
    You can even calculate it yourself if you know the player's hits, ab's, hr's and k's.
    I was told there would be no math.
    FFF - BB, BB, 2B, HR, 2B, HR, 1B, BB, BB, 1B, BB, BB, HR

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    Quote Originally Posted by Nerfherders View Post
    You can even calculate it yourself if you know the player's hits, ab's, hr's and k's.
    It's a little more complicated than that. You also need to know how many times they fouled out, and hit sac flies/bunts.

    I would just look it up. It's available as the first stat page for every player at both FG and BRef.

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