Our hitters lead the majors with a BABIP of .344. Indians bring up the rear at .175 so far.
Meanwhile our pitchers have given up a BABIP of .263, third lowest in the NL.
Just sayin.
Our hitters lead the majors with a BABIP of .344. Indians bring up the rear at .175 so far.
Meanwhile our pitchers have given up a BABIP of .263, third lowest in the NL.
Just sayin.
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
Mrs. Meta (04-09-2018)
totally sustainable
Riding this to the WS!
Freshmaker (04-07-2018)
Early in the season, I like to look at walk rates for pitchers and strikeout rates for the hitters to gauge what might be changing. At this point it is still too early for that to make sense. I will look at those numbers after the first month. But it might be useful to look at the team walk and strikeout rates.
Our pitchers have the 5th highest strikeout rate in the NL. Not bad. They have the highest walk rate in the majors. Which is a problem.
Our hitters have the 6th highest walk rate in the NL. Not bad. They have the second lowest strikeout rate in the NL. This would be a fantastic thing if they can sustain it.
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
Our walk rate is propped up by the greatness of freeman.
He is part of the team.Originally Posted by thethe
Where would the rebuild be without Freeman!
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
Inciarte .269
Albies .192
Suzuki .250
Stewart .214
A bunch will come down, but we will add production at these 3 positions. It isn’t like we have needed our 10.6 runs per games... we’re +26 in run differential.
Yeah, but as a team we have gotten a lot of BABIP pixie dust so far this season.
On the pitching side, the low BABIP given up has limited the damage from all those walks.
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
I have a vague memory of starting a thread last year on BABIP Gods Frowning on Braves. I'd much rather they be smiling on us!
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
Not arguing that, but we are 5-2 with hardly any pruduction from 3 positions we were really counting on... opening day they hit 1, 2, and 4. I think as Swanson, tucker, and FF cool off, albies, inciarte, catcher, and acuna will take up some slack. We will not avg 10 runs a game, but our pitching will get better soon just by adding gohara
I have full confidence that chuckie will address the walks by his staff. He is a stickler about guys walking hitters.
Coppy
Lot of confidence in Gohara.
I am not the most knowledgeable on all of the advanced stats but doesn't BABIP seem too easy?
What I mean is that what I hear most people saying is more of an excuse.
X player is doing well...but they have a high BABIP. (ex: Swanson 2018) He is just had lots of luck!
Y player is struggling...but they have a low BABIP. (ex: Swanson 2017) He has been really unlucky!
While luck can help, really what should be said ...
Swanson has a high BABIP because he is hitting well.
Swanson has a low BABIP because he is really struggling.
What I really want to know is more basic...
What is his LD rate?
What is his exit velocity?
What is his K rate?
When Swanson has a good eye...and makes good contact...and hits Line drives, he is much more likely to be successful. (No luck involved!)
Can he keep it up? Who knows, but it fun for right now.
Now you've done it.
Managuarantano's Volunteers (04-07-2018), mfree80 (04-07-2018)
There are two things in play here. One is just truly being lucky. For example if player X is hitting very few line drives with weak contact but it supporting a high BABIP then I feel most people will agree that he's just been extremely lucky. Then there is also sustainability. If player Y has a high LD% and also has a high BABIP then most people would agree that he's not lucky but just hitting very well. The question then becomes is that sustainable.
In almost all cases however players will hover around a 300 BABIP. That's average across all players and has been consistent for many years. Several factors will influence this to make it where if you are above or below that it's not really luck but just part of your hitting profile. LD%, speed, IFFB %, etc.
Right now Swanson seems to have both going for him. A 455 BABIP even over a weeks worth of games will almost always have some luck involved. Still, he's currently supporting a line drive percentage of 36%. That's amazing and he's hitting really well right now.
Yep
You're certainly not wrong about looking at the underlying batted ball profile before assuming luck, but when an entire team's BABIP is so high, the odds are high that it'll normalize.
Actually, I tend to agree with you. I think people misuse the stat. Where I think it has some predictive value is where you have two guys hitting .280, one guy's BABIP is .300, the other is .340, the first is more likely to sustain, the second regress.
Not real helpful when the guy's hitting .420 and somebody points out he's unlikely to sustain because of his high BABIP. Hey, no ****.
If this stretch had happened in June, it would just be a blip. There is no way this continues, but ride it while it does!
Mrs. Meta (04-09-2018)
you're right...something called expected BABIP can be calculated based on line drive rate etc...but when a player has a BABIP over .400 you dont need any extra analysis to know he is benefiting from luck
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
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