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Thread: Could the Braves win 90 games this season?

  1. #181
    10 yr, $185 million Extension zbhargrove's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    I could understand that. Both are interesting guys. I just think Andersons upside is the highest. Braves are taking it really slow with him. He won't sniff the majors until mid 2020
    Yeah... he's got upside and he has time to fix the control problem. I want to see Wentz and Wilson in AA by the end of the year if they keep it up though.
    Enscheff is the most brilliant baseball mind of our time. No seriously. he's fantastic and really remarkable. You're going to love him. Magnificent. Really great.

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    I <3 Ron Paul + gilesfan sturg33's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by clvclv View Post
    If projection systems are "conservative" with young players and Allard sucks since his fastball is in the 89-91 MPH range, why on earth shouldn't he be traded for ANY upgrade you can get?

    The day the new metrics project Glavine as a HOFer will be the first time it's happened.

    I'm in no way touting Allard as "the next Glavine", but apparently the only thing keeping him from getting MLB hitters out right now is that he's in Gwinnett.

    Weight the projection systems evenly with the scouts that watch the games in person and continue to rate Allard as a Top 50-60 prospect (and ahead of a lot of names that get bandied about around here), and it's a bit funny to read the comments about how he can't possibly succeed at the next level. Teheran can't possibly succeed because of this metric or that one, tell that to the Mutts. At the same age, Tommy was 12-11, 3.88, 1.435, etc. at Greenville and Richmond.

    I completely get being excited about the "stuff" guys and physical studs, but some guys can just pitch/play.
    your hatred for analytics is fun but it has proven to be right far more than not... that's why the game has changed and thats why the braves are in much better hands with AA

  4. #183
    "What is a clvclv"
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    Quote Originally Posted by sturg33 View Post
    your hatred for analytics is fun but it has proven to be right far more than not... that's why the game has changed and thats why the braves are in much better hands with AA
    It has absolutely nothing to do with a "hatred for analytics", and the thing that bothers most who try to use that is you know it.

    I've NEVER said (or intimated) that the new math is "wrong", simply that there are exceptions to the numbers.

    I have no clue whether Allard can be exceptional when moving to another level - or whether he can turn into one of those exceptions, but I do know that the "can't-miss", "slam-dunk", TOR "Ace" guy that's his age (Forrest Whitley) is currently serving a suspension for juicing and isn't getting many people out right now.
    Waters is intersting too. Would prefer a guy that projects to more power though. (2017 Draft Thread)

    If they don't make additions they can expect the same 3-5 win improvement they saw last year. That makes the Braves a 75-78 win team. (What's the best we could hope for in 2018?)


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  5. #184
    Very Flirtatious, but Doubts What Love Is. jpx7's Avatar
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    Maybe?:

    According to research by myself and others, it takes about 70 games before observed results from a season in progress reach even a 50-50 balance with preseason expectations, in terms of how much weight each deserves when assessing a team. The Braves have played less than half that many games so far this year, which probably goes a long way toward explaining why the statistical projections haven’t budged much off of Atlanta’s relatively bearish spring-training predictions. The past data says you can’t read too much into a month’s worth of results.

    However, that premise was designed to hold true for all teams as a group. What happens when we look at a smaller group of teams, especially just the ones that have as much breakout potential as the Braves? Atlanta went into the season with Baseball America’s top-ranked farm system and currently has the eighth-youngest roster in baseball (if we weight each player’s age by their wins contributed this season.)

    To get a sense for whether this matters, I looked at all teams since 1984 who were coming off a sub-.500 season but had a better-than-.500 record in April. Over the rest of the season, teams in that group who were both among MLB’s 10 youngest and went into the year with a top-10 farm system (again, according to Baseball America) ended up winning 2.7 more games over the rest of the season than Elo would predict. By comparison, all other teams won roughly as many games as Elo thought they would.

    That difference is just on the border of statistical significance, but if it holds true for the Braves, it would imply that they’re due to win more than expected based on their pessimistic win projections at FanGraphs and in our Elo interactive — and those extra wins could be enough to elevate them from a mid-80s win tally (sketchy territory, playoffs-wise) to a number closer to 90 wins (a much safer bet for making the postseason).
    "For all his tattooings he was on the whole a clean, comely looking cannibal."

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    thank god we actually have pitching now. amazing how devoid we were of it, and now we have a bunch of guys on the cusp of the majors plus a lot more coming thru.

    i said all offseason that if the pitching performed well, this team had a chance to surprise people. hopefully it holds up. i think it will.

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    Shift Leader thethe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    thank god we actually have pitching now. amazing how devoid we were of it, and now we have a bunch of guys on the cusp of the majors plus a lot more coming thru.

    i said all offseason that if the pitching performed well, this team had a chance to surprise people. hopefully it holds up. i think it will.
    There is no doubt that a main reason, and maybe the reason for our success, has to do with Albies/Acuna/Freeman but in general you win a lot of games based on starting pitching and we have that in droves now.

    The plan was implemented over 3 years ago with the knowledge of Albies/Acuna and we are starting to see the fruits of that plan. Its going to be a real fun time to be a Braves fan moving forward.
    Warm feelings guy!

  9. #187
    Playing the Waiting Game DaneHill's Avatar
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    Fivethirtyeight predicting close to 90 wins now for the Braves....but data still early in the season:

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...stay-that-way/
    Last edited by DaneHill; 05-04-2018 at 10:19 AM.

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  11. #188
    Very Flirtatious, but Doubts What Love Is. jpx7's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DaneHill View Post
    Fivethirtyeight predicting close to 90 wins now for the Braves....but data still early in the season:

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...stay-that-way/
    I guess my embedded link was hard to spot? I linked/quoted the same article above.

    Definitely an encouraging dig into what the projection systems might be missing re the Braves. I’m still cautious, but it gives me a little more #reasontobelieve.
    Last edited by jpx7; 05-04-2018 at 10:42 AM.
    "For all his tattooings he was on the whole a clean, comely looking cannibal."

  12. #189
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    If Fredi were managing we'd win 100 games.

    Snitker may prevent us from winning 90 even with the talent we have.
    Forever Fredi


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    Playing the Waiting Game DaneHill's Avatar
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    Ah yes, I see it now. Apologies, jpx! Old news, People, move along! Move along!

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    Very Flirtatious, but Doubts What Love Is. jpx7's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Forever Fredi View Post
    If Fredi were managing we'd win 100 games.

    Snitker may prevent us from winning 90 even with the talent we have.
    Maybe Snitker won’t blow it in the first-round with colossal mismanagement, though.
    "For all his tattooings he was on the whole a clean, comely looking cannibal."

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    Very Flirtatious, but Doubts What Love Is. jpx7's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DaneHill View Post
    Ah yes, I see it now. Apologies, jpx! Old news, People, move along! Move along!
    No apologies necessary—definitely an article worth posting. And I never know how (in)visible embedded links are on these boards.
    "For all his tattooings he was on the whole a clean, comely looking cannibal."

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    Quote Originally Posted by jpx7 View Post
    Maybe Snitker won’t blow it in the first-round with colossal mismanagement, though.
    I'd be happy just to get to a first round again.

    In fairness to Fred he didnt mismanage the wild card game. Chipper choking on defense + Sam Holbrooke.
    Forever Fredi


  17. #194
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    Quote Originally Posted by jpx7 View Post
    No apologies necessary—definitely an article worth posting. And I never know how (in)visible embedded links are on these boards.
    @Hawk

    Was supposed to fix it. Terrible.
    Forever Fredi


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    Quote Originally Posted by Forever Fredi View Post
    I'd be happy just to get to a first round again.

    In fairness to Fred he didnt mismanage the wild card game. Chipper choking on defense + Sam Holbrooke.
    That isn’t the mismanagement that jpx was referring to. I believe he was referring to the boneheaded decision by Fredi to leave Kimbrel in the bullpen standing next to Eddie rather than going two innings in a must win game.

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    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DaneHill View Post
    Fivethirtyeight predicting close to 90 wins now for the Braves....but data still early in the season:

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...stay-that-way/
    One reason for caution is that a significant part of the upside surprise so far this season is coming from guys like Markakis, Suzuki and Flannery.

    I also have doubts that Albies and Acuna are MVP caliber players. Which is how they have performed so far.
    “It's a shame the White House has become an adult day care center. Someone obviously missed their shift this morning.” Senator Bob Corker

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    Quote Originally Posted by clvclv View Post
    If projection systems are "conservative" with young players and Allard sucks since his fastball is in the 89-91 MPH range, why on earth shouldn't he be traded for ANY upgrade you can get?

    The day the new metrics project Glavine as a HOFer will be the first time it's happened.

    I'm in no way touting Allard as "the next Glavine", but apparently the only thing keeping him from getting MLB hitters out right now is that he's in Gwinnett.

    Weight the projection systems evenly with the scouts that watch the games in person and continue to rate Allard as a Top 50-60 prospect (and ahead of a lot of names that get bandied about around here), and it's a bit funny to read the comments about how he can't possibly succeed at the next level. Teheran can't possibly succeed because of this metric or that one, tell that to the Mutts. At the same age, Tommy was 12-11, 3.88, 1.435, etc. at Greenville and Richmond.

    I completely get being excited about the "stuff" guys and physical studs, but some guys can just pitch/play.


    Glavine was not throwing 89-91 at that age. Also, Glavine broke in 30 years ago, when the average fastball was 88 mph...it's 92 now.

    Facts. They are not your strong suit. Neither is logic. Or competence. Or being right.
    Gausman had a bad walk ratio for us -CrazyTrain 11/20/2018
    BB/9 with Braves: 2.72

    Fried, Newk and a couple other guys for Bumgarner and give him a pay day for 6ish years -CrazyTrain 10/15/18

    I analyzed Teheran's motion. He will be a CYA candidate in 2018-2020, and will be an extension candidate. Do not trade him -GovClintonTyree 12/17/15

    Matt Adams to the Tampa Bay Rays for Jake Odorizzi makes too much sense not to happen -clvclv 10/17/17
    Matt Adams non-tendered by Braves 12/2/17

  24. #198
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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post


    Glavine was not throwing 89-91 at that age. Also, Glavine broke in 30 years ago, when the average fastball was 88 mph...it's 92 now.

    Facts. They are not your strong suit. Neither is logic. Or competence. Or being right.
    This is basic. Do hitters do more with 88 mph fastballs than they used to? It seems logical that they would?

    I suppose the alternative would be that hitters do roughly the same with an 88 mph as they ever did, but front offices prefer the outcomes with higher velocity fastballs.

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    PosiBraves Hell Gatekeeper
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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    This is basic. Do hitters do more with 88 mph fastballs than they used to? It seems logical that they would?

    I suppose the alternative would be that hitters do roughly the same with an 88 mph as they ever did, but front offices prefer the outcomes with higher velocity fastballs.
    I'm not sure what you are even asking...

    Are you seriously asking if hitters do worse against higher velocity? Or better against lower velocity?

    Or are you somehow suggesting that 88 mph today is the same as 88 mph 30 years ago, as if athletes overall haven't improved by leaps and bounds in the last 3 decades?
    Gausman had a bad walk ratio for us -CrazyTrain 11/20/2018
    BB/9 with Braves: 2.72

    Fried, Newk and a couple other guys for Bumgarner and give him a pay day for 6ish years -CrazyTrain 10/15/18

    I analyzed Teheran's motion. He will be a CYA candidate in 2018-2020, and will be an extension candidate. Do not trade him -GovClintonTyree 12/17/15

    Matt Adams to the Tampa Bay Rays for Jake Odorizzi makes too much sense not to happen -clvclv 10/17/17
    Matt Adams non-tendered by Braves 12/2/17

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    Further, this whole "statheads wouldn't like Glavine or Maddux today" is pure stupidity.

    We only have pitchfx data for Maddux from 2007 and 2008, but here is what it reveals:

    SI: 9.6" HMov, 5.8" VMov

    That was an old man Maddux with above average movement on his SI going by today's grades...not the movement grades 10 years ago.

    Maddux easily had plus movement on his SI back in 2007 when he was washed up. In his prime he almost certainly combined average or better velocity, plus or plus-plus movement, and elite command.

    We would have known Maddux was amazing.
    Last edited by Enscheff; 05-04-2018 at 12:08 PM.
    Gausman had a bad walk ratio for us -CrazyTrain 11/20/2018
    BB/9 with Braves: 2.72

    Fried, Newk and a couple other guys for Bumgarner and give him a pay day for 6ish years -CrazyTrain 10/15/18

    I analyzed Teheran's motion. He will be a CYA candidate in 2018-2020, and will be an extension candidate. Do not trade him -GovClintonTyree 12/17/15

    Matt Adams to the Tampa Bay Rays for Jake Odorizzi makes too much sense not to happen -clvclv 10/17/17
    Matt Adams non-tendered by Braves 12/2/17

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